Kenya Sugar Protection Lapses and Nairobi Looks Again
KENYA · SUGAR
Key Facts
- —What is the COMESA safeguard A rule that let Kenya cap duty-free sugar imports from its neighbours in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.
- —How long it lasted From 2001 until it expired on 30 November 2025. Close to 24 years.
- —What has changed The East African reported on 16 September that Kenya is quietly exploring new protective measures.
- —What Kenya said in January The Kenya Sugar Board chairman Nicholas Gumbo said the country no longer needed a safeguard, because domestic capacity had caught up.
- —Why the question is back Lower-cost surplus producers in the bloc can now sell into Kenya without the cap.
- —Where it stands Kenya has not applied for anything and nothing has been granted. This is a report of deliberation.
Kenya protected its sugar farmers for 24 years, then let the protection lapse. Ten months later it is looking for a new one.
Kenya is exploring new protective measures for its sugar sector, The East African reported on 16 September 2026. The COMESA safeguard that capped duty-free regional imports expired on 30 November 2025.
What the Safeguard Did
COMESA is a free trade area of 21 member states stretching from Egypt to Eswatini.
Article 61 of the COMESA Treaty lets a member restrict imports of a product for a period. The purpose is to give a domestic industry time to restructure.
Kenya obtained that permission for sugar in 2001 and kept it, through repeated extensions, for close to 24 years.
The original cap allowed 200,000 tonnes of duty-free regional sugar a year.
How It Ended
The last extension was granted by the COMESA Council of Ministers on 23 November 2023.
It ran from December 2023 to 30 November 2025 and was not renewed.
Accounts differ on how many extensions there were in total, with seven and eight both reported.
Kenya did not seek another one.
Why Kenya Let It Go
Nicholas Gumbo, chairman of the Kenya Sugar Board, put it plainly in January 2026.
You only need a safeguard, he said, if you do not have adequate domestic capacity, and Kenya does not need it.
Kenyan sugar production rose from 472,773 tonnes in 2022 to 815,454 tonnes in 2023.
Cane acreage grew from 242,508 hectares to 289,631 hectares over the same period.
What Changed Since
Kenyan consumption runs at roughly 1.13 million tonnes a year and is forecast to reach about 1.14 million.
Production, even at the improved level, does not cover it, so the gap is filled by imports.
Imports were projected to exceed 350,000 tonnes in 2025, well above the old duty-free cap.
Malawi, Eswatini and Zambia produce sugar more cheaply than Kenya does, and without a cap their sugar competes directly with Kenyan mills.
What the Report Says and Does Not Say
The East African’s 16 September report describes Kenya quietly exploring alternative protectionist measures following the expiry.
Kenya has not lodged an application. COMESA has not granted anything.
The report sits behind a paywall and is the only current account of the deliberation.
Everything else in the public record still shows Kenya having exited the safeguard by choice.
The Other Tariff Wall
Sugar from outside COMESA and the East African Community faces a 100% tariff unless a waiver is granted.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service reported in April 2026 that Kenya still regulates imports through licensing.
An industrial waiver covering 208,600 tonnes at 10% duty ran to 30 June 2026.
So Kenyan sugar policy is now three separate instruments, and the COMESA cap was only one of them.
Why It Matters to Kenyans
Sugar supports several hundred thousand farming households in western Kenya, concentrated around Kisumu, Kakamega and Bungoma.
Millers there buy cane at prices set with reference to what imported sugar costs.
Cheaper regional sugar lowers the retail price and squeezes the cane price at the same time.
That trade-off between the shopper and the farmer is the whole argument, and it has run in Kenyan politics for two decades.
What to Watch
Whether Kenya lodges anything formal with the COMESA Council of Ministers.
Retail sugar prices, which the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly.
The fate of the industrial waiver, which expired at the end of June.
And the mills. If western Kenyan factories start closing, the political pressure for protection will settle the question quickly.
More: Africa news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the COMESA sugar safeguard?
A permission under Article 61 of the COMESA Treaty. It let Kenya cap duty-free sugar imports from member states while its industry restructured.
When did it expire?
On 30 November 2025, after close to 24 years.
Is Kenya applying for a new one?
Not formally. The East African reported on 16 September 2026 that Kenya is exploring alternative protective measures.
Why did Kenya let it lapse?
Kenya Sugar Board chairman Nicholas Gumbo said in January 2026 that domestic capacity had improved and a safeguard was no longer needed.
How much sugar does Kenya use?
About 1.13 million tonnes a year, against production of roughly 815,000 tonnes in 2023.
Who decides?
The COMESA Council of Ministers, which granted the previous extensions.
Sources: The EastAfrican, The Star, Capital FM, COMESA Secretariat, Kenya Sugar Board, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
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