Today’s Focus
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The Big Picture: Reality checked the euphoria. The Ibovespa gave back 1.01% to close at 187,766 — a natural correction after Wednesday’s historic surge past 190,000 — as profit-taking in blue chips and a global tech rout weighed on sentiment. The dollar reversed its slide, rising 0.24% to R$5.199, though it touched R$5.154 intraday, the lowest since May 28, 2024. Banco do Brasil (+4.50%) was the star after blowing past earnings estimates, while Braskem crashed 11.27% on revelations of a R$3.6 billion “calote” to BB.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
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Wall Street suffered its worst session in weeks as AI disruption fears exploded. The Dow plunged 669 points (-1.34%) to 49,452, the S&P 500 dropped 1.57% to 6,833, and the Nasdaq fell 2.03% to 22,597. Cisco collapsed 12.5% on weak guidance, Apple lost 5%, and Amazon, Meta, and Broadcom each fell 2–5%. The selloff was driven by rising fears that AI tools are beginning to disrupt established business models across software, real estate, and trucking — the dark side of the AI buildout.
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The Treasury market told a different story: the 10-year yield tumbled 8.1 basis points to 4.10% — its biggest one-day drop since October — after a strong 30-year auction and weekly jobless claims of 227,000 (above the 222,000 estimate). Rate traders now see the first Fed cut pushed back to July, with two cuts still priced for the full year.
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Gold crashed 3.3% to below $4,920, its sharpest single-day drop in weeks, as a wave of deleveraging and margin calls forced liquidation across precious metals. Brent crude eased 0.20% to $69.20, with the EIA reporting a crude inventory build of 8.5 million barrels. Argentina’s Senate approved Milei’s labor reform bill in a pre-dawn vote — the most significant legislative victory of his presidency.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 12, 2026 (Thu close)
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | 187,766 | -1.01% (profit-taking) |
| USD/BRL | 5.199 | +0.24% (intraday low R$5.154) |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | MARCH CUT CONFIRMED |
| Brent Crude | $69.20/bbl | -0.20% (geopolitics fading) |
| Gold | ~$4,948/oz | -2.94% SHARP SELLOFF |
| Iron Ore | ~$102.80/t | ~FLAT |
| U.S. 10Y Treasury | 4.10% | -8.1bps (biggest drop since Oct) |
| U.S. Jobless Claims | 227,000 | MISS (exp 222K) |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 96.92 | +0.09% |
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Today’s Main Event
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Ibovespa gives back 1% as Braskem implosion dominates headlines; BB beats; Wall Street crushed by AI fears
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After Wednesday’s euphoric breach of 190,000, the Ibovespa did what markets do after vertical moves: it pulled back. The index fell 1.01% to 187,766, shedding 1,933 points in a session dominated by profit-taking in blue chips, a global tech rout, and the explosive Braskem-Banco do Brasil saga. Volume remained healthy as institutional investors rotated rather than fled.
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The session’s headline story was Braskem (BRKM5), which collapsed 11.27% to R$9.61 — the Ibovespa’s worst performer — after two damaging revelations hit simultaneously. First, Banco do Brasil’s Q4 earnings disclosed a R$3.6 billion “case-specific” spike in corporate loan delinquency that the market quickly attributed to the petrochemical giant. Second, Petrobras announced it would not exercise its right of first refusal or tag-along rights on Braskem shares, clearing the path for IG4 Capital to assume control but removing a key backstop for the stock. The move interrupted a four-session winning streak that had accumulated 20% gains.
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Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) was the mirror image, surging 4.50% to R$26.03 after posting Q4 net income that exceeded expectations by 25% (and topped consensus by roughly 40%), driven primarily by a favorable tax line. Full-year 2025 net income came in at R$20.7 billion — down 45.4% from 2024 but hitting the top end of the bank’s revised guidance range. Management signaled 2026 would be challenging but struck an offensive tone. Other banks, however, sold off: Itaú fell 2.29%, Bradesco lost 1.44%, and Santander dropped 4.88% — all closing at session lows.
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Petrobras (PETR4) slipped on the broader risk-off mood despite holding up better than the index. Vale (VALE3) was relatively flat as investors awaited its earnings release. Klabin highlighted strong January demand for packaging paper and cardboard, boosting the pulp and paper sector.
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The dollar reversed Wednesday’s decline, rising 0.24% to R$5.199, though it touched R$5.154 during the morning — the lowest intraday level since May 28, 2024. The rebound was driven by the global shift toward safe-haven assets as Wall Street sold off hard. Year-to-date, the dollar remains down roughly 5.3% against the real.
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Wall Street was the real story of the global session. The Dow plunged 669 points (-1.34%) to 49,452, the S&P 500 fell 1.57% to 6,833, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.03% to 22,597 — the worst day for U.S. equities in weeks. Cisco Systems collapsed 12.5% on disappointing guidance, Apple slid 5% in its worst session since April, and Walt Disney fell 5.3%. The selloff was driven by escalating fears that AI tools are beginning to disrupt established business models — moving beyond the “who benefits” trade into the “who gets destroyed” trade. Defensives outperformed: Walmart gained 3.8% and McDonald’s rose on earnings.
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Verdict
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This was a healthy and necessary correction — not a trend reversal. The Ibovespa pulled back 1% from an overbought breakout on a day when the Nasdaq lost 2% and the Dow shed 669 points. In relative terms, Brazil outperformed. The Braskem-BB saga is idiosyncratic and confined. The key structural drivers — foreign capital rotation, rate-cut expectations, earnings momentum — remain intact. Support at 185,000–187,333 is the level to watch. Today’s U.S. CPI is the next binary event that will determine whether the Ibovespa retests 190,000 or pulls back further toward 183,000.
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Braskem-BB Saga & Earnings
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R$3.6 billion “calote” shakes petrochemicals; BB earnings surprise on the upside
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Banco do Brasil’s Q4 results revealed a bombshell buried in the credit quality data. The bank reported that its corporate loan delinquency ratio was materially elevated by a single “case-specific” default of R$3.6 billion in its securities and credit portfolio. Without naming the debtor, BB’s VP of Risk Felipe Prince confirmed the case was “old” and had been resolved in January 2026 when the credit was ceded to a special situations fund. He indicated no further impact was expected in Q1 2026.
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The market immediately identified Braskem as the debtor, connecting the dots to the Novonor restructuring and the IG4 Capital takeover. Braskem’s corporate delinquency pushed BB’s PJ indicator to 3.75% (it would have been 2.86% ex the one-off). The broader non-performing indicator reached 5.17% versus a 4.88% adjusted reading.
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On the same day, Petrobras confirmed it would not exercise its right of first refusal or tag-along rights on Braskem shares — a decision that had been anticipated but still removed the last potential backstop for the stock. IG4 Capital is now set to assume control by late February, inheriting a company with US$10.1 billion in gross debt and severely compressed petrochemical spreads. The Fitch downgrade to CC from CCC+ in December had already flagged default risk.
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Meanwhile, BB’s underlying results were strong. The bank’s Q4 net income topped analyst estimates by 25%, driven by a favorable tax line. Management acknowledged 2026 would be challenging given the high-rate environment but adopted an aggressive posture. The stock’s 4.50% rally reflected relief that the Braskem impact was contained and backward-looking.
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Verdict
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The Braskem saga is a contained credit event, not a systemic risk. BB had already provisioned for it, the credit has been ceded, and no Q1 impact is expected. But the 11% crash in BRKM5 reflects the market’s anxiety about what comes next: a highly leveraged company with US$10.1B in debt entering a control transition amid the worst petrochemical cycle in years. Braskem’s restructuring timeline — proposals due by March — is the next watchpoint. For BB shareholders, the earnings beat and management’s forward guidance are the more relevant signal.
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U.S. Markets & AI Disruption
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Dow -669, Nasdaq -2% as “who gets destroyed by AI” narrative takes hold; Treasuries rally hard
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The U.S. market narrative shifted decisively on Thursday from “who benefits from AI” to “who gets destroyed by AI.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 669 points (-1.34%) to 49,452, the S&P 500 fell 1.57% to 6,833, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.03% to 22,597. It was the broadest selloff since early February’s tech correction.
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Cisco Systems was the catalyst, plunging 12.5% after issuing guidance that fell short of expectations — raising concerns that AI-driven automation could cannibalize demand for traditional networking hardware. Apple fell 5% in its worst session since April, while Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Palantir each dropped between 2.3% and 4.8%. Software stocks continued their 2026 rout as investors re-priced the sector for a world where AI agents replace enterprise software workflows.
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The Treasury market diverged sharply from equities. The 10-year yield plunged 8.1 basis points to 4.10% — its biggest single-day drop since October — driven by a flight to safety, a strong 30-year bond auction (demand at 2.66x vs. 2.36x average), and weekly jobless claims of 227,000 (above the 222,000 consensus). The 30-year yield fell to 4.73%, its lowest since December 3. Rate traders now see the first Fed cut pushed to July, with two cuts still priced for the full year.
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Defensives outperformed: Walmart gained 3.8%, and McDonald’s rose after an earnings beat. In extended hours, Applied Materials surged 12% on strong earnings, while Pinterest plunged 18% on a soft forecast. Rivian jumped 16% on robust delivery guidance.
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Verdict
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The AI narrative is evolving from a bull case (capex boom, winners) to a bear case (disruption, losers). This is not bearish for all equities — it’s a rotation within the market. For Brazil, the implication is neutral to positive: the defensive rotation favors value and commodity names over growth/tech, exactly the composition of the Ibovespa. The Treasury rally (10Y at 4.10%) is net positive for EM as it eases dollar funding costs. Today’s CPI will determine whether this Treasury move extends or reverses.
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Commodities Update
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Gold crashes 3% on deleveraging; Brent eases; crude inventories build
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Gold suffered a brutal session, dropping approximately 3% to below $4,950 per ounce — extending its correction from the January all-time high near $5,600. The selloff was not driven by macro fundamentals (Treasury yields actually fell) but by a wave of forced liquidation and margin calls across precious metals, as the recent rally had created stretched positioning. Silver and copper also fell sharply. Despite the damage, gold remains above $4,900 and central bank buying (PBoC’s 15th consecutive month) provides structural support.
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Brent crude slipped 0.20% to $69.20 per barrel, retreating from Wednesday’s $70.56 high as the Iran negotiation narrative continued to de-escalate. The EIA reported a crude inventory build of 8.5 million barrels for the week ending February 6 — a significant increase driven partly by the normalization after Winter Storm Fern disruptions. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report arrives today, followed by the IEA assessment that has warned of a nearly 4 million barrel per day surplus in 2026.
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Iron ore held near $102.80/t, flat on the day. Chinese demand remains subdued ahead of the Lunar New Year break, with port inventories elevated above 160 million tons. The DCE benchmark was essentially unchanged.
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Economic Calendar
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February 13–20 (upcoming)
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| Date | Event | Importance |
| Fri, Feb 13 | U.S. CPI (January, delayed from Feb 11) — 8:30 AM ET \nExp: +2.5% y/y headline (from 2.7%), +2.5% core (from 2.6%). New seasonal factors & weights. Key for Fed path. |
HIGH |
| Fri, Feb 13 | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) | MEDIUM |
| Fri, Feb 13 | U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb, prelim) | MEDIUM |
| Mon–Tue, Feb 16–17 | Carnival — Brazil markets CLOSED (B3 resumes Wed Feb 18 PM) | LIQUIDITY |
| Mon, Feb 16 | Presidents’ Day — U.S. markets CLOSED | LIQUIDITY |
| Wed, Feb 18 | B3 resumes trading (afternoon session) — Ash Wednesday | LIQUIDITY |
| Thu, Feb 19 | FOMC Minutes (January 28–29 meeting) | HIGH |
| Fri, Feb 20 | U.S. GDP Q4 2025 (Advance, delayed from Jan 29) + Personal Income & Outlays Dec | HIGH |
| Fri, Feb 20 | U.S. S&P Global PMI (Feb, flash) — Manufacturing & Services | MEDIUM |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 185,000 / 183,000 | 187,766 | 190,561 / 193,875 |
| USD/BRL | 5.10 / 5.00 | 5.199 | 5.27 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $67 / $65 | $69.20 | $70.56 / $72 |
| Gold | $4,900 / $4,800 | ~$4,948 | $5,060 / $5,200 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 12, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 187,766 | -1.01% | 5.20 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | ~3,060,000 | -5.5% | 1,400 |
| Mexico | IPC | ~71,200 | -0.6% | 17.20 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | ~2,370 | -0.7% | 3,680 |
| Chile | IPSA | ~11,100 | -0.9% | 858 |
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Argentina: The S&P Merval collapsed 5.50% to 2,851,780 in its worst single-session loss of 2026, breaking below both the 3-million-point psychological level and the USD 2,000 barrier in dollar terms, as a global tech sell-off overwhelmed positive domestic catalysts.The BCRA continued accumulating reserves, reinforcing FX stability with the dollar mayorista steady near 1,400 pesos.
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Mexico: The IPC pulled back approximately 0.6% as the global tech selloff weighed on risk appetite across EM. The peso weakened modestly to 17.20 vs. the dollar. Investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. CPI data, which will shape both Fed expectations and the cross-border trade outlook. Despite the pullback, the IPC remains near all-time highs with YTD gains above 10%.
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Colombia: The COLCAP fell approximately 0.7%, extending its retreat from the January 27 all-time high as profit-taking continued for a fourth session. The selloff has been orderly rather than panicked, with financials leading the decline.
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Chile: The IPSA dipped roughly 0.9%, giving back a portion of Wednesday’s rebound. The index continues to consolidate after Tuesday’s sharp -2.14% crash driven by the Latam Airlines secondary offering and Entel’s JPMorgan downgrade. Copper weakness weighed on mining names.
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Key Themes This Week
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AI Disruption Fear Goes Mainstream
\nThe market narrative shifted from “who benefits from AI” to “who gets destroyed.” Cisco -12.5%, Apple -5%, software stocks cratering. Nasdaq -2% on the day. The rotation favors value/commodity names (i.e., the Ibovespa) over growth/tech. Brazil is on the right side of this trade.
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Braskem-BB: Contained Credit Event
\nBraskem’s R$3.6B “calote” to BB shook the petrochemical stock (-11.27%) but the damage is idiosyncratic. BB already resolved the credit in January. Petrobras won’t take control. IG4 Capital set to assume command by late February. Restructuring proposals due March.
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Treasury Rally: 10Y Hits 4.10%
\nThe 10-year yield plunged 8.1bps — its biggest drop since October — on flight to safety, a blockbuster 30Y auction (2.66x), and soft jobless claims. For EM and Brazil, lower U.S. yields ease dollar funding costs and support the carry trade that’s driving record foreign inflows.
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Gold Crash: Deleveraging, Not Macro
\nGold crashed ~3% to below $4,950 on margin calls and forced liquidation — not on rising yields (they fell). The move is technical, not fundamental. Central bank buying continues. The precious metals bull market remains intact above $4,800 support.
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Bottom Line
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Thursday was a risk-off session globally — but Brazil’s pullback was measured and constructive. The Ibovespa fell just 1.01% to 187,766 on a day when the Dow shed 669 points (-1.34%) and the Nasdaq dropped 2.03%. In relative terms, Brazil outperformed the U.S. for the second consecutive session. The Braskem-BB saga dominated local headlines but is a contained, backward-looking credit event — not a systemic risk.
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Banco do Brasil’s earnings beat (+25% vs. estimates) reaffirmed the earnings momentum thesis. The stock surged 4.50% while other banks sold off — a divergence that reflects BB-specific optimism rather than sector weakness. Meanwhile, Klabin’s strong January demand commentary and the ongoing pulp-and-paper rally (Suzano +13% Wednesday) show Brazilian corporates continue to deliver.
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The global macro backdrop evolved meaningfully: The U.S. 10-year yield’s plunge to 4.10% (-8.1bps) is the most important development for EM positioning. Lower long-end yields reduce dollar funding costs, support carry trades, and make the Selic’s 15% rate even more attractive for foreign capital. The AI disruption rotation out of tech into value/commodities directly benefits the Ibovespa’s composition. Gold’s crash is noise — a technical deleveraging event, not a macro signal.
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Today is the most consequential session before Carnival. U.S. CPI at 8:30 AM ET is the week’s binary event. Consensus expects headline inflation cooling to 2.5% y/y (from 2.7%) with core also at 2.5% (from 2.6%). A benign print would validate the Treasury rally, potentially push the dollar lower, and reignite the Ibovespa toward 190,000. A hot print — especially with new seasonal adjustment factors — could trigger a sharp reversal, sending yields and the dollar higher while pressuring EM assets heading into the liquidity vacuum of Carnival.
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Key risks: Hot U.S. CPI (the biggest near-term threat); Carnival liquidity compression (Feb 16–17 Brazil closed, Feb 16 U.S. closed for Presidents’ Day); Braskem restructuring uncertainty; gold volatility spillover; Iran negotiation breakdown (oil spike); overbought IFR readings on the weekly chart (84+).
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate