Gold and Silver Rebound the Day After the Federal Reserve Raised Rates
Key Facts
- Gold closed at about US$4,346 an ounce, up 1.74%, recovering the ground lost when the Federal Reserve raised rates the day before.
- Silver rose 3.44% to roughly US$65.43 an ounce, outpacing gold as it usually does on a strong day for the complex.
- The dollar index was flat at 100.22, so this was a rebound in the metals rather than a currency move.
- The American ten-year yield eased to 4.947% from 5.006%, which removed one of the pressures on non-yielding assets.
- Mexico mined 172.9 million ounces of silver in 2025, about 20.4% of world output and more than any other country.
- Peru was second at roughly 130.6 million ounces, with China third at 112.8 million, making Latin America the centre of world silver supply.
Today’s Focus
Gold and silver both rebounded on Thursday after a difficult Wednesday. Gold closed at about US$4,346 an ounce, up 1.74%, and silver at roughly US$65.43, up 3.44%.
The Federal Reserve had raised rates the previous afternoon, and gold fell about 1.2% on the decision. Thursday reversed that and more.
What did not help was the dollar. The dollar index closed at 100.22, almost exactly unchanged, and it is up about 1.1% over the week.
That makes this a metals story rather than a currency one. Buyers stepped in after the decision rather than being pushed in by a weaker dollar.
The bond market did contribute. The American ten-year yield eased to 4.947% from 5.006%, which lowers the cost of holding an asset that pays no income.
Mining shares followed the metals higher and then some. Wheaton Precious Metals rose 3.73% and Agnico Eagle 2.97%.
What matters today. This was bargain-hunting into a firm dollar rather than a soft-dollar rally. That is a more durable kind of buying and a more demanding one.
01 The session in one read
Bullion sold off on the rate decision and recovered the next day. That sequence is common and tells you the selling was positioning rather than conviction.
Silver outpaced gold by roughly two to one. That ratio is normal on strong days because silver is the smaller and more industrial market.
Gold has climbed steadily through the year and the fifty-day average has followed it. Wednesday’s fall barely registers on the longer view.
The metal remains well above its two-hundred-day average. That is the technical definition of an intact uptrend.
02 The board
| Instrument | Level | Session | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (per ounce) | US$4,346 | +1.74% | Recovers Wednesday’s rate-driven fall |
| Silver (per ounce) | US$65.43 | +3.44% | Outpaced gold as usual on a strong day |
| Dollar index | 100.22 | -0.01% | Flat, so not the driver |
| US 10-year yield | 4.947% | -1.18% | Eased from 5.006% |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | US$201.37 | +2.97% | Producers followed the metal |
| Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) | US$152.20 | +3.73% | Streaming model amplifies the move |
The dollar line is the one that makes this session interesting. A metals rally without currency help is a rally with its own legs.
Producers moved further than the metal, as they usually do. Wheaton rose 3.73% and Agnico Eagle 2.97%.
Live Market IntelligenceCommodities — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.03%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
03 What moved it
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday. Gold fell about 1.2% to around US$4,240 on the announcement.
Twelve members voted for the increase and sixteen of eighteen officials expect another before year-end. That is a hawkish package by any measure.
Bullion nonetheless recovered the following day. Buyers who had been waiting for a pullback found one and used it.
Fund flows give some context for that appetite. North American gold exchange-traded funds took US$7.7 billion in August against US$71 million in July.
04 The Latin American read
Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, mining 172.9 million ounces in 2025. That is about 20.4% of an 846.6 million ounce global total.
Peru is second at roughly 130.6 million ounces and China third at 112.8 million. Latin America therefore supplies close to two-fifths of world silver.
That concentration means a silver rally reaches Mexican and Peruvian export receipts directly. It also reaches the mining communities that depend on those operations.
Gold is more widely distributed but the region still matters. Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia are all significant producers.
Artisanal mining complicates the picture across all four. A meaningful share of regional gold leaves through informal channels that never appear in official statistics.
05 The names to watch
Fresnillo is the world’s largest primary silver producer and operates eight mines in Mexico. Two of those are not currently in production.
Buenaventura is the Peruvian equivalent and rose 4.96% on Thursday. It produces silver and gold alongside base metals.
Wheaton Precious Metals buys future production rather than mining it. That structure gives it more leverage to the price than a producer has.
Agnico Eagle and Barrick are the large North American gold houses. Both rose on Thursday, Agnico by 2.97%.
06 The outlook
The supply picture in silver is not tightening. The Silver Institute forecasts mine production up 1% to 820 million ounces this year.
Total supply is expected to reach 1.05 billion ounces, a decade high. That still leaves a deficit of 67 million ounces, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall.
Demand is what closes that gap, and it is industrial as much as monetary. Solar panels and electronics consume a growing share of annual output.
For gold, the question is whether another American rate rise arrives before December. Sixteen of eighteen Federal Reserve officials currently expect one.
A second increase would test Thursday’s buyers directly. Bullion that recovers from one hawkish decision may not recover from two.
The counterargument is the one that has worked all year. Central bank reserve buying and fund inflows have absorbed every pullback since the spring.
07 What to watch
- The dollar index: Thursday’s rally happened without currency help, which makes the dollar the key variable from here.
- The next Federal Reserve move: Sixteen of eighteen officials expect a further increase before the end of the year.
- Exchange-traded fund flows: North American gold funds took US$7.7 billion in August against US$71 million in July.
- Silver’s industrial demand: Solar and electronics consumption is what turns a supply surplus into a sixth annual deficit.
- Mexican and Peruvian output: The two countries together supply close to two-fifths of world silver.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the gold price on 17 September 2026?
Gold closed at about US$4,346 an ounce, up 1.74%. It had fallen roughly 1.2% the previous day on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
How much did silver rise?
Silver rose 3.44% to roughly US$65.43 an ounce. It outpaced gold, which is the usual pattern on a strong day for the complex.
Did a weaker dollar drive the rally?
No. The dollar index closed at 100.22, essentially unchanged, and it was up about 1.1% over the week.
Which country produces the most silver?
Mexico, at 172.9 million ounces in 2025, about 20.4% of world output. Peru is second at roughly 130.6 million ounces.
Is silver supply falling?
No. The Silver Institute forecasts mine production up 1% to 820 million ounces and total supply at a decade-high 1.05 billion ounces, against a deficit of 67 million.
What did the Federal Reserve decide?
It raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, the first increase since 2023. Sixteen of eighteen officials expect another before year-end.
Sources: RT end-of-day series for gold, silver, AEM and WPM; USAGOLD daily precious metals report for 17 September 2026; Silver Institute and Metals Focus, World Silver Survey 2026; 247wallst on North American gold fund flows; Denver Gold Group for Fresnillo operations.
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