Wall Street Rises 0.7% as US Payrolls Miss | Global Economy, Oct 3
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Wall Street regains its footing, tech leads The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,723 as softer labour data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its next meeting. The Nasdaq jumped 1.19%, leading gains.
- Gold cools but dollar retreats from highs Gold slipped 1.07% to US$4,138 an ounce as some haven demand unwound. The dollar index eased 0.17% to 101.924, offering emerging markets a brief reprieve.
- Brazil votes with global rates still tight Brazil holds a general election on Sunday with the Selic rate at 13.75%. A firm dollar and 5.283% US 10-year yield still pressure the real despite Friday’s calm.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | 7,667 | Risk-on returns |
| US 10-year yield | 5.283% | 5.242% | Yields stay elevated |
| US nonfarm payrolls (Sept) | +29,000 | +133,000 | Misses 90,000 forecast |
| US private nonfarm payrolls (Sept) | +46,000 | +89,000 | Misses 85,000 forecast |
| US manufacturing payrolls (Sept) | +9,000 | +15,000 | Near 10,000 forecast |
| US government payrolls (Sept) | -17,000 | +44,000 | Reverses August gain |
| US U-6 unemployment rate (Sept) | 7.6% | 7.7% | Near 7.7% forecast |
| US unemployment rate (Sept) | 4.2% | 4.1% | Edges up, forecast 4.1% |
| VIX | 15.31 | 16.39 | Volatility eases |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area harmonised inflation rate, flash (Sept) | 3.8% | 3.2% | Highest since 2023, energy +18.8% |
| Euro area core inflation rate, flash (Sept) | 2.5% | 2.4% | In line with forecasts |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China markets | Closed | — | Golden Week holiday |
| Brazil industrial output (Aug, m/m) | -0.6% | +0.1% | Misses +0.1% forecast |
| São Paulo IPC-Fipe inflation (Sept) | 0.51% | 0.01% | Above 0.42% median forecast |
| Brazil Selic | 13.75% | 13.75% | Carry supports real |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,723 | +0.73% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 192,115 | +2.63% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2223 | +0.09% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-02. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Saturday, October 3, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | CN | National Day Golden Week | — | — |
| 00:00 | DE | Unity Day | — | — |
| 00:00 | BR | Election eve: voting opens Sunday, 4 October | — | — |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Equities exhale before the weekend
Wall Street found firmer ground on Friday as a cooler-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the case for Federal Reserve patience. The Nasdaq’s 1.19% advance showed rate-sensitive technology shares leading the rebound.
Still, the relief was not universal in fixed income. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 5.283%, a reminder that investors remain wary of holding long-dated government debt.
For Brazilian assets, the combination of a softer dollar and firm risk appetite is welcome. Yet the high base rate in the US keeps the opportunity cost of holding reais meaningful.
02 The Federal Reserve’s waiting game
US payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September against a forecast of 90,000, and unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Traders now expect the Fed to hold its benchmark rate steady for now. The VIX tumbled to 15.31, signalling that equities see a less aggressive central bank as a positive backdrop.
However, the bond market is not fully convinced the inflation fight is over. The rise in the 10-year yield to 5.283% suggests that global investors still demand a premium for long-term risk.
This creates a nuanced picture for Brazil. The 13.75% Selic rate offers substantial carry, but if US yields remain near 5.3%, the real may struggle to appreciate decisively.
03 Sunday’s vote and Latin America’s rate path
Brazil goes to the polls on Sunday in a general election, with the outcome set to shape fiscal expectations. Markets are watching whether the next government can deliver a credible budget strategy alongside the high Selic rate.
The dollar index’s dip to 101.924 gives the real some breathing room. Abroad, euro area inflation reached 3.8% in September, its highest since 2023, a reminder that energy costs still feed price pressure.
For investors in Latin America, the core trade remains the same: high local rates versus a strong dollar. A benign Fed path helps, but a sudden spike in US yields could quickly reverse capital flows into countries like Brazil.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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