Cuba’s Economy Down 1.1% in 2024, Shrinks 10% Since 2019

Cuba’s economy contracted by 1.1% in 2024, officially marking the second consecutive year of recession. Compared to 2019, the island’s output has fallen by over 10%, reflecting a deep and sustained economic decline.

This was confirmed by presentations before the Cuban National Assembly by Economy Minister Joaquín Alonso. Primary sectors such as agriculture, livestock, and mining have dropped by more than 53% over the past five years.

Manufacturing activity is down 23%, while the services sector, including social services, has declined by 6%, according to reports reviewed and published by Cuban state institutions.

Shortages of foreign currency, energy, and fuel remain key obstacles. The government acknowledges it cannot import enough food, medicine, spare parts, or raw materials essential for production.

Aging infrastructure and the lack of major overhauls in power plants have worsened energy instability, forcing daily blackouts in multiple provinces, some lasting up to 16 hours.

Inflation remains a critical pressure point. Prices of basic goods continued rising in 2024, with many items well above affordability levels for average households.

Currency instability makes financial planning difficult for families and businesses alike. The state’s exchange system remains fragmented, and reliance on informal markets drives up consumer costs even further.

Tourism, once a major engine for the economy, continues to fall short of targets. The government reported only 1.6 million visitors in the first half of 2025 — just 71% of the goal.

Compared to the same period in 2024, arrivals were down 29%. Closing this gap appears unlikely in the short term, especially amid infrastructure issues and economic uncertainty.

Export performance has also weakened. While products like tobacco and seafood recovered slightly, overall exports met only 62% of planned revenue in early 2025.

Drops in key earners such as nickel, sugar, shrimp, and pharmaceuticals hurt national earnings and widened the trade deficit. Cuba’s external debt remains high and limits access to fresh credit.

While the government continues talks with its creditors, unresolved arrears and late payments reduce the country’s standing with international lenders.

Official estimates suggest the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 100%, raising long-term risks for financing imports or investing in critical infrastructure.

Cuban officials admit that current production and trade levels cannot meet internal demand or external obligations. Without more reliable energy, fuel, and hard currency flows, both the public and private sectors will continue to face growing difficulties.

All figures and facts in this article are based exclusively on official Cuban government statements, published economic reports, and data released by the Ministries of Economy, Tourism, and Statistics.