Economy: Colombia
Key Facts
—Who. DANE, Colombia’s national statistics agency, and the Banco de la República, the central bank.
—What. Annual inflation rose to 6.29% in September 2026 from 6.24% in August. Prices rose 0.37% in the month.
—Where. Colombia, where the central bank’s policy rate is 12.25%.
—When. Published Wednesday 7 October 2026 for September. The central bank meets next on Friday 30 October.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices no change at the October rate decision at 45.0% and a 25-basis-point rise at 36.0%. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices them at 42% and 39% (read about 7:15 pm ET on 7 October 2026).
—As of. 7 October 2026, 23:30 GMT.
Colombia’s annual inflation rose to 6.29% in September 2026 from 6.24% in August, the national statistics agency DANE reported on Wednesday 7 October. That is the highest annual rate since July 2024, and it is slightly below the 6.33% that analysts surveyed by Citi expected.
What We Know
DANE said consumer prices rose 0.37% in September, against 0.39% in August and 0.32% in September 2025. Over 12 months prices rose 6.29%, compared with 5.18% a year earlier.
Prices have risen 5.74% since the start of the year, against 4.55% in the first nine months of 2025. That is 1.19 points faster than a year ago.
Education and food showed the largest monthly rises among spending groups, according to Colombian press reports. Food and non-alcoholic drinks rose 0.78% in the month, and education rose 1.43%.
Reading the Monthly Figure
The monthly rise of 0.37% was slightly smaller than August’s 0.39%, yet annual inflation still climbed. The reason is that prices rose only 0.32% in September 2025, so the comparison base was lower.
That gap of 0.05 points matches the rise in the annual rate, from 6.24% to 6.29%. Analysts will watch whether monthly readings stay near 0.4%, and the next reading will show whether the trend continues.
Why the Number Matters
The central bank’s target range is 2% to 4%, so inflation is more than two points above the top of it. The reading is the last monthly inflation figure before the bank’s next rate meeting.
Inflation was 5.18% in September 2025, so prices are now rising 1.11 points faster than a year ago. That is a clear acceleration for households.
Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on Wednesday 30 September. Four directors voted for the rise, two for no change and one for 50 basis points.
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The bank said it wants a restrictive policy that is consistent with falling inflation into 2027.
We reported the August reading in our report on inflation at 6.24% and the analysts’ September forecast in our preview. The result landed just below that forecast.
The Minimum Wage Link
The September figure is the baseline for talks on the 2027 minimum wage, according to Infobae. Colombia raised the minimum wage by 23.7% for 2026, a rise that Infobae links to inflation.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the October Banco de la República decision, with about US$33,700 traded, priced no change at 45.0%, a 25-basis-point rise at 36.0% and a rise of 50 or more at 15.3%. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, priced no change at 42%, a rise of up to 25 basis points at 39% and a larger rise at 14%.
Kalshi also priced a 19% chance that Colombia’s 2027 minimum-wage increase will exceed inflation by more than 4 percentage points. About 123,000 contracts have traded on that market.
These prices were read at about 7:15 pm ET on 7 October 2026. They are bets, not polls, and they may have moved after the data were published.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
DANE’s technical bulletin was not reachable when we wrote, so the group figures come from Colombian press reports. We do not yet have the city breakdown or the core inflation reading.
It is not known whether the bank will raise rates again on Friday 30 October. The markets are split between holding and a rise of 25 basis points.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
For US investors in Colombian peso bonds, the policy rate of 12.25% is about six points above inflation. That gap is what the bank calls a restrictive stance, and it gives the bank room to keep rates high.
Inflation that keeps rising can push the bank to raise rates again, which would support the peso but slow the economy. US companies with Colombian payrolls will also watch the 2027 minimum-wage talks closely.
Food and education led the monthly rise, and those costs hit households first. Visitors who pay in dollars feel less of this, because the effect on them depends on the peso rate.
The next test is the bank’s meeting on Friday 30 October. A decision to hold would signal that the bank sees its 12.25% rate as high enough for now.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Colombia’s inflation in September 2026?
Annual inflation was 6.29%, up from 6.24% in August, and prices rose 0.37% in the month, according to DANE.
Is that the highest in two years?
Yes. It is the highest annual rate since July 2024, and it is above the central bank’s 2% to 4% target range.
What is the central bank’s interest rate?
The Banco de la República’s policy rate is 12.25% after a 25-basis-point rise on 30 September. The bank meets next on Friday 30 October 2026.
What do prediction markets expect for the October rate decision?
Polymarket priced no change at 45.0% and a 25-basis-point rise at 36.0%, while Kalshi priced them at 42% and 39%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Sources
DANE · El País (Cali) · Infobae · Vanguardia · La República · Banco de la República
Connected Coverage
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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