Brazil’s central bank released data Thursday that told two stories at once. The economy grew 2.5% in 2025 — better than expected. But it ended the year losing momentum, which is what policymakers need to see before cutting the highest interest rates in almost two decades.
The IBC-Br, the central bank‘s monthly activity index and widely watched GDP proxy, fell 0.2% in December from November. Markets had expected a 0.5% drop, so the reading came in better than feared.
The agro engine is cooling
Agriculture carried the 2025 economy, surging 13.1% while services grew 2.1% and industry 1.5%. Strip out farming and the economy expanded only 1.8%. With early indicators pointing to weaker harvests, analysts see 2% growth this year as optimistic.
That deceleration gives the central bank room. Governor Gabriel Galípolo raised the Selic by 275 basis points after taking office in January 2025, bringing it to 15% — the highest since 2006. At its January meeting, the Copom held rates for the fifth straight time but signaled easing would begin in March.
A cutting cycle takes shape
Markets are pricing in 50-basis-point cuts at each of seven remaining meetings this year, bringing the Selic to 12.25% by December. Inflation expectations have fallen for six straight weeks, dropping below 4% for the first time since mid-2025. Annual inflation ended 2025 at 4.26%, back inside the target band.
The official Q4 GDP arrives March 3 from IBGE. Thursday’s data suggests it will confirm the slowdown: the IBC-Br rose just 0.4% in the final quarter versus the third.
The Fed pulls in the opposite direction
While Brazil prepares to ease, the Federal Reserve is moving nowhere fast. Minutes from the January meeting, released Wednesday, revealed deep divisions. Several officials floated raising rates if inflation stays above the 2% target. The committee held its benchmark at 3.5%–3.75% after three cuts in late 2025, and most major firms now expect no U.S. cut before June.
The divergence creates familiar tension. Brazil’s cuts could weaken the real against the dollar, complicating the inflation picture just as it improves. But with the economy slowing and fiscal rules tightened by new spending legislation, the central bank has the runway it needs. The question is no longer whether cuts begin — but how far they go. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American markets and financial news.
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