Mexico Stocks Reverse Early Gains: IPC Closes at 70,885 After Fed Minutes Crush Rally

Wednesday’s session told two stories. The IPC opened at 71,156.93 and surged to 71,694.88 as mining and tech stocks rallied on early Wall Street optimism, before the Fed minutes hit at midday and dragged the index to a low of 70,771.96. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

The close at 70,885.22 (-0.38%) marked a second consecutive losing session. Volume was thin at 88% of the 100-day average, a pattern that persisted from Monday’s Presidents’ Day holiday in the US.

Grupo Bimbo led the decliners, falling 2.86% to MXN 66.42 after rallying nearly 19% since January 6. The pullback came ahead of Q4 2025 earnings on February 26. Grupo Financiero Inbursa, controlled by Carlos Slim, dropped 2.77% to MXN 44.25.

Chedraui was the session’s biggest loser at -3.16%, while Genomma Lab shed 2.97% — extending its brutal YTD decline of over 40%, the worst in the entire IPC.

On the winning side, Grupo Televisa surged 4.78% to MXN 11.62, and Banco del Bajío climbed 2.83% to MXN 55.95. Grupo México added 1.73% as copper and precious metals recovered sharply.

The 2026 standout remains Industrias Peñoles, up over 230% YTD, driven by the gold and silver rally. Its parent, Grupo México, the index’s largest component by market cap at MXN 91.9 billion, has also benefited from elevated metal prices.

Corporate earnings season intensifies with Bimbo on February 26 and América Móvil — the second-largest IPC component — expected soon. The market remains expectant of both results given the current premium valuations.

The peso opened Wednesday near 17.10 — flirting with its strongest levels in over 18 months — before the Fed minutes triggered a sharp reversal. By the close, the dollar was at 17.22 per Infobae, or 17.23 per Banxico’s official fix.

The 0.51% depreciation was the direct result of the DXY posting a 0.50% gain, its largest since the Warsh nomination on January 30. EBC Financial Group’s Felipe Mendoza warned that if the restrictive tone persists, the peso could face pressure toward 17.25.

Despite the daily weakness, the peso remains 13.6% stronger year-over-year. Hacienda projects a 2026 average of MXN 19.30, while Banorte targets MXN 19.30 and Citi Mexico sees MXN 19.50–20.20 — all significantly weaker than the current spot, suggesting the “súper peso” may be overextended.

Banxico unanimously paused its cutting cycle on February 5, holding the rate at 7.00% after twelve consecutive reductions totaling 425bp from the 11.25% peak since March 2024. Inflation was 3.77% in January, above the December print but below expectations.

The central bank pushed its 3% inflation convergence target from Q3 2026 to Q2 2027, acknowledging upside risks from the 13% minimum wage hike, IEPS tax increases on soft drinks and cigarettes, and the uncertain tariff environment under Trump.

Consensus expects just two 25bp cuts in 2026, targeting a 6.50% terminal rate. Banorte sees the first cut as early as March; others expect May. The carry trade differential — 7.00% vs the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% — remains the peso’s primary support.

In the debt market, Cetes 28-day yields fell 4bp to 6.84%, their lowest since April 2022 and a fourth consecutive weekly decline. The 10-year Mexican bond yield stood at 8.76% versus 4.08% for the US Treasury, offering a 468bp spread.

The daily chart shows the IPC in a shallow pullback within a powerful structural uptrend. Price closed at 70,885.22, well above the 200-day SMA at 61,395.64 — a 15.5% cushion that has not been tested since the rally accelerated in mid-2025.

The index is trading within the upper portion of the Ichimoku cloud, with the cloud offering support in the 67,200–69,200 zone. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging near 69,800–70,400, suggesting a potential consolidation range.

The RSI reads 63.77 on the main oscillator and 60.80 on the secondary — moderately bullish territory, down from overbought readings above 70 during the January rally but still showing underlying strength.

The MACD histogram has turned slightly negative at -39.24, with the MACD line at 1,315.64 and signal at 1,276.41. The crossover confirms short-term bearish momentum, though the magnitude is minimal relative to recent positive readings.

Wall Street closed higher despite the hawkish Fed minutes, with the S&P 500 up 0.56% to 6,881.31, the Nasdaq gaining 0.78%, and the Dow adding 0.26%. Nvidia rallied on Meta’s announcement of a massive GPU procurement deal, while Amazon gained after Pershing Square disclosed a 65% increase in its position.

The disconnect between Wall Street’s gains and the BMV’s losses highlights the peso channel: the DXY’s 0.50% surge hit emerging-market currencies harder than equities, dragging the IPC lower in the afternoon despite positive US index closes.

Crude oil surged sharply. WTI jumped 3.83% to US$64.72 and Brent gained 3.53% to US$69.80 on geopolitical escalation — the US warned American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine–Russia talks in Geneva stalled.

Higher oil prices are a double-edged sword for Mexico: positive for Pemex and fiscal revenues, but the country now imports nearly half its gasoline, so rising crude also feeds into consumer inflation via import costs.

Gold spot traded at US$4,957 (+1.62%), recovering from Monday’s sharp selloff to ~US$4,865 after hitting an all-time high of US$5,595 on January 29. The rebound directly benefited Peñoles and Grupo México on the IPC.

US industrial production rose 0.6% in January, its fastest pace in 11 months. Banorte called the data “positive” but cautioned that Trump’s tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and limited demand remain headwinds for manufacturing.

Thursday brings US Q4 GDP data, followed by the crucial PCE inflation report on Friday — both will shape Fed rate expectations and, by extension, peso and IPC direction.

Domestically, Grupo Bimbo reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 26, and América Móvil results are imminent. The T-MEC renegotiation timeline and Trump’s tariff threats — including a potential 30% levy on Mexican imports — remain the dominant risk for the second half of the year.

Banxico’s next policy meeting is March 26. If the PCE data and January inflation readings stay manageable, a 25bp cut could be on the table. The FIFA World Cup 2026 tailwind is also beginning to feature in analyst models, with infrastructure spending and tourism inflows expected to support GDP.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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