Mexico Stayed America’s Top Supplier Despite Tariffs

Trump called it the “year of the tariff.” Mexico called it a record year anyway. Census Bureau data released Thursday showed that Mexican goods exports to the United States hit $534.9 billion in 2025, up 5.8% from 2024 — cementing Mexico’s third consecutive year as America’s number-one supplier.

The result is remarkable given the barrage of duties Washington imposed. Mexican goods that don’t qualify under the USMCA trade agreement currently face a 25% tariff linked to fentanyl and migration enforcement. Automobiles carry a separate 25% duty, and steel, aluminum, and copper face 50% rates.

The USMCA shield

Mexico’s resilience rests on one structural advantage: roughly half its exports qualify for duty-free treatment under USMCA, the trade agreement Trump himself negotiated during his first term. Vehicles, auto parts, computers, medical devices, and wiring harnesses — the backbone of bilateral trade — largely cross the border untaxed.

Mexico first overtook Canada as the second-largest U.S. supplier in 2016, then displaced China from the top spot in 2023 as Washington ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods.

China collapses, Taiwan surges

The reshuffling of America’s supplier rankings accelerated dramatically in 2025. Chinese exports to the U.S. fell 29.7% to $308.4 billion. Canadian exports dropped 7% to $383 billion.

The biggest winner was Taiwan. Its exports to the U.S. soared 73.3% to $201.4 billion, vaulting past Japan and Germany to become the fourth-largest supplier. The surge was fueled by booming AI-related semiconductor demand and a January trade deal that capped tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15% in exchange for $500 billion in chip-industry investment commitments.

Biggest partner, both ways

Mexico didn’t just sell more to America — it bought more, too. U.S. exports to Mexico reached $338 billion, edging past Canada ($336.5 billion) to make Mexico the top destination for American goods. Exports to China, by contrast, plunged 25.8% to $106.3 billion.

Combined, two-way trade put Mexico at 15.6% of total U.S. commerce, followed by Canada at 12.8%, China at 7.4%, Taiwan at 4.6%, and Germany at 4.3%. The United States imported $3.4 trillion in goods globally in 2025, a 4.6% increase over the previous year.

The data arrives as both countries prepare for the mandatory USMCA review due in 2026. Trump has signaled skepticism toward the deal he once championed, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum faces the delicate task of defending an agreement that now doubles as her economy’s most important shield. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico affairs and Latin American financial news.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade

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