Brazil’s Real Holds Firm as Lula–Trump Call and Oil Rebound Counter Stronger Dollar

USD/BRL hovered near 5.31 on Tuesday morning in São Paulo, little changed after Monday’s 0.49% slide to about 5.3107. The move extended the pair’s two-day pullback even as the global dollar index steadied around the 98 handle.

Monday’s decline ran against the broader tide of a firmer greenback abroad. Dealers pointed to a friendlier tone after a 30-minute video call between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump.

Trump described the exchange as “very good,” focused on trade and the economy, and both sides signaled plans to meet soon—headlines that nudged Brazil risk sentiment higher.

Commodities added a tailwind. Crude stabilized after OPEC+ confirmed a modest output increase from November, prompting a relief bounce following last week’s slump.

For Brazil, the oil reprieve and a solid external position reinforced the notion that the currency can outperform when global risk appetite improves.

Local fundamentals helped underpin the real. Brazil posted a September trade surplus of $2.99 billion, beating expectations. The Central Bank’s weekly Focus survey trimmed 2025 inflation expectations to 4.80% and showed slightly stronger projected exchange-rate paths.

USD/BRL Stuck in Range, Bias Toward Stronger Real Below 5.36

With activity still described by policymakers as heated, the benchmark Selic remains at 15%, keeping Brazil’s real yields among the highest in major economies and supporting the carry.

Countervailing forces limited gains. The U.S. government shutdown entered a sixth day, freezing some data releases and injecting headline risk, while the dollar index held a tight range near 98.

Technically, the daily chart shows USD/BRL capped by a descending cluster of longer moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud in the 5.33–5.36 zone. RSI sits in the low 40s and MACD is flattening near zero, consistent with consolidation.

On the 4-hour chart, momentum is softer, with price oscillating around the 200-period average and RSI in the high 30s to low 40s. Immediate support is 5.29–5.30, then 5.27–5.28; resistance stands at 5.33–5.36, then 5.38–5.40.

Bottom line: Without fresh policy headlines or a decisive swing in oil or the dollar index, USD/BRL looks set to range trade, with a mild bias toward a stronger real while the pair remains beneath 5.36.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.