Brazil’s Ibovespa Holds Steady at 119,000 Points with Petrobras Support

The Ibovespa index maintained its position at 119,000 points, buoyed by a slight recovery in commodity prices. This positive momentum occurred on Monday, October 13, as the Brazilian stock market’s main index closed up by 0.13% at 119,006.93 points.

During the same session, the dollar traded at R$ 6.0935, reflecting a decrease of 0.08%. Domestically, Diogo Guillen, the director of Economic Policy at the Central Bank, confirmed that Brazil would meet its fiscal target for 2024.

He emphasized that while the lower limit remains achievable, the overall fiscal situation still requires careful monitoring. Petrobras shares played a vital role in this recovery.

The company’s stocks rose nearly 2% during the day, driven by favorable oil market performance. Vale also saw gains due to rising iron ore prices.

Meanwhile, IRB Brasil Resseguros (IRBR3) topped the gainers’ list after Santander upgraded its recommendation to “buy.” On the downside, Grupo Pão de Açúcar (GPA) shares fell almost 5% following a downgrade from Bank of America.

The bank reduced its price target for GPA to R$ 1.80, citing increasing competition and significant contingency risks facing the retailer. In the United States, Wall Street displayed mixed results.

Market Anticipation

Investors awaited the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set for release on Wednesday, October 15. Although not the Federal Reserve‘s preferred inflation measure, market participants closely monitor the CPI to adjust their inflation forecasts.

Investors also prepared for Donald Trump’s administration, anticipating heightened trade tensions due to proposed tariffs. The market expects sustained high interest rates in the U.S.

The Federal Reserve indicated in December that it might implement only two rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each throughout 2025. A recent survey from the New York Fed revealed that respondents expect inflation to stabilize at 3% over the next year.

This figure remains above the Fed’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, three-year inflation expectations increased from 2.6% to 3%, while five-year expectations decreased slightly from 2.9% to 2.7%.

In summary, the Ibovespa‘s resilience reflects broader trends in commodity markets and investor sentiment amid evolving economic conditions both domestically and internationally.

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