Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 13, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for a dynamic session today as key economic indicators from both domestic and international fronts take center stage, influencing expectations for monetary policy, currency movements, and asset performance.
Today’s spotlight in Brazil falls on the Services Sector Growth data, due at 9:00 AM local time. This release will shed light on the health of a critical component of Brazil’s economy, which drives employment and contributes significantly to GDP.
Amid ongoing inflationary pressures and global trade uncertainties, this indicator could signal whether the services sector is resilient enough to bolster economic stability, potentially influencing the Central Bank’s next moves on interest rates.
Internationally, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data at 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM, alongside labor market figures like Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, will dominate attention.
These releases will shape perceptions of U.S. economic health and Federal Reserve policy, directly affecting global risk sentiment, capital flows, and the Brazilian real’s trajectory.
Additionally, the IEA Monthly Report at 5:00 AM will provide critical insights into global energy markets, a vital factor for Brazil’s oil-dependent export economy.
Across the Atlantic, Eurozone Industrial Production and ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at 1:00 PM will offer clues on European demand for Brazilian goods, while Germany’s CPI data at 4:00 AM could influence the euro’s strength, impacting trade dynamics.
These events collectively matter as they set the stage for Brazil’s economic positioning in a volatile global landscape, with implications for inflation, interest rates, and investor confidence.
Economic Agenda for March 13, 2025
Brazil
9:00 AM – Services Sector Growth: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This indicator reflects the performance of Brazil’s services sector, a key driver of economic activity and employment, influencing overall GDP growth.
United States
5:00 AM – IEA Monthly Report: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This report from the International Energy Agency shapes global energy market outlooks, impacting U.S. oil demand and prices, with ripple effects on Brazil’s energy exports.
8:30 AM – Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, consensus at 1,900K, previous at 1,897K. This measure of ongoing unemployment claims reflects U.S. labor market health, influencing consumer spending and economic policy.
8:30 AM – Core PPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus at 0.3%, previous at 0.3%. The month-over-month Core Producer Price Index (excluding food and energy) signals underlying price pressures at the producer level in the U.S. economy.
8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, consensus at 226K, previous at 221K. This weekly measure of new unemployment claims provides insight into U.S. labor market trends, affecting economic confidence.
8:30 AM – PPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus at 0.3%, previous at 0.4%. The month-over-month Producer Price Index tracks changes in producer-level prices, influencing inflation expectations and monetary policy.
9:30 AM – Producer Price Index (PPI): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This headline PPI measure reflects price changes for goods and services at the producer level, impacting U.S. inflation and global market dynamics.
1:00 PM – 30-Year Bond Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous at 4.748%. This auction reflects U.S. long-term borrowing costs and investor confidence, potentially affecting the USD and capital flows to emerging markets.
5:30 PM – Fed’s Balance Sheet: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous at 6,757B. This report on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities provides insight into monetary policy actions, influencing financial markets globally.
Canada
8:30 AM – Building Permits (MoM) (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus at -5.3%, previous at 11.0%. This indicator of construction activity signals Canada’s economic momentum, potentially affecting demand for Brazilian commodities.
United Kingdom
4:00 AM – GDP: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This measure of economic output reflects the UK’s growth trajectory, influencing the pound’s strength and trade dynamics with Brazil.
Germany
4:00 AM – Consumer Price Index (CPI): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. This key inflation gauge reflects Germany’s cost of living, influencing Eurozone monetary policy and demand for Brazilian exports.
1:00 PM – German Buba Balz Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Remarks from this Bundesbank official could signal German economic priorities, impacting Eurozone-Brazil trade relations.
1:30 PM – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Statements from the Bundesbank President may hint at Eurozone monetary policy directions, affecting the euro and Brazil’s export markets.
Eurozone (General)
5:50 AM – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Comments from the ECB Vice President could provide clues on Eurozone monetary policy, influencing the euro and trade with Brazil.
6:00 AM – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan): Actual TBD, consensus at 0.5%, previous at -1.1%. This measure of manufacturing output signals Eurozone economic health, affecting demand for Brazilian goods.
1:00 PM – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Remarks from the European Central Bank President could signal policy shifts, impacting the euro and Brazil’s export markets.
Switzerland
3:30 AM – PPI (MoM) (Feb): Actual 0.3%, consensus at 0.2%, previous at 0.1%. The month-over-month Producer Price Index tracks producer-level price changes in Switzerland, reflecting economic trends that could influence the Swiss franc and trade.
New Zealand
5:30 PM – Business NZ PMI (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous at 51.4. This Purchasing Managers’ Index reflects New Zealand’s manufacturing activity, signaling economic health and potential demand for Brazilian exports.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, closed at 123,866.39 points on March 12, marking a slight increase of 0.29%. This recovery was influenced by inflation data from Brazil and the U.S., as well as a modest rebound in New York markets.
The Brazilian real strengthened against the dollar, closing at R$5.8088, down by 0.05%. Key market drivers included inflation data aligning with expectations—U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, below forecasts—easing some pressure on global markets.
However, U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective March 12, weighed on commodity stocks like Vale (VALE3), which fell over 1%, while Petrobras (PETR4) saw a slight gain due to oil price movements.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks mostly rose after getting some relief from an encouraging inflation update. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to 5,599.30, the Nasdaq composite added 1.2% to 17,648.45, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 41,350.93. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.1% to 2,026.47. AI stocks led gains, but companies targeted by retaliatory tariffs from Europe weighed on the market.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Oil markets staged a technical comeback on March 12, with prices rebounding after a recent slump. This modest recovery supports Brazil’s energy sector, particularly Petrobras, amid ongoing trade tensions and mixed global demand signals.
Gold Prices
Gold reached $2,936 on March 12, continuing its bullish momentum as investors sought safety amid global uncertainties. This strength in precious metals bolsters Brazil’s mining sector, offering a hedge against inflation and currency volatility.
Cryptocurrencies
The cryptocurrency market showed signs of recovery on March 12, despite ongoing volatility. This performance could influence Brazilian fintech firms and financial institutions exploring digital assets and blockchain technologies.
Companies and Market
Brazilian energy prices tripled due to a new drought risk model, posing challenges for energy-intensive industries and households, potentially impacting economic growth.
Brazil faces an inflation dilemma as Lula’s consumption stimulus clashes with the Central Bank’s efforts to curb price pressures, creating uncertainty for markets and policymakers.
Brazil opts for negotiation over retaliation in the U.S. steel tariff dispute, signaling a diplomatic approach that could stabilize trade relations and support commodity markets.
Brazilian fashion group Azzas 2154 reported a 35.8% profit decline in Q4 2024, reflecting challenges in the retail sector amid economic headwinds.
Outlook
Today’s market direction will hinge on Brazil’s Services Sector Growth data and the U.S. PPI release, which together will shape expectations for economic resilience and inflationary pressures.
With Brazil grappling with rising energy costs and an inflation dilemma, investors will closely watch the services sector figures for signs of domestic strength.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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-1.06%
204,324.26
-1.06%
67,180.21
+0.58%
10,971.88
+0.05%
2,859,051
+0.82%
2,580.50
-0.07%
59,543.73
+1.12%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,324.26 | -1.06% | +21.85% | 206,505.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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