Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 12, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• IPCA within target → door open for Selic cuts later this month or March

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• EU-Mercosur deal progress → boosts trade sentiment, hopes for 2026 entry

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• Commodities rally → supports exporters amid tariff fears, strikes, stockpiling

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• U.S. soft landing → risk-on spreads after mixed jobs data

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• Broader risk: Fed politics shock and Iran tension could trigger volatility in rates/FX/equities/precious metals

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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. In Brazil, the BCB Focus Market Readout at 6:25 AM BRT provides weekly economist surveys on inflation, growth, and Selic expectations, crucial for gauging monetary policy path amid recent IPCA softness.
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\nIn the EU, ECB’s De Guindos Speaks at 3:50 AM CET offers insights on eurozone policy amid mixed data; Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan) at 4:30 AM CET measures sentiment that could signal recovery or weakness; and German Buba Monthly Report at 6:00 AM CET details Bundesbank views on economy, influencing ECB bets.
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\nIn the UK, BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Dec) at 7:01 PM GMT assesses consumer activity. Holidays in Japan (Coming of Age Day) and Colombia (Epiphany Day) may thin liquidity.
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\nOverall, these events test EM resilience amid Fed uncertainty, with softer prints supporting risk assets like BRL and equities, while surprises could firm dollar and pressure commodities.
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\nIbovespa advances as inflation stays in bounds and global risk-on spreads
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\nAfter a volatile week, Brazil’s Real holds firm as global dollar strengthens
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Economic Agenda for January 12, 2026

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Brazil

\n6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout Cons: – Prev: –
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Mexico

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• No major releases today.

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Argentina

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• No major releases today.

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Chile

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• No major releases today.

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Colombia

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• No major releases today.

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United States

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• 10:00 AM EST – CB Employment Trends Index (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 105.80

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• 1:00 PM EST – 3-Year Note Auction Cons: – Prev: 3.614%

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• 1:00 PM EST – 10-Year Note Auction Cons: – Prev: 4.175%

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\nEU
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• 3:50 AM CET – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks Cons: – Prev: –

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• 4:30 AM CET – Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan) Cons: -5.1 Prev: -6.2

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• 6:00 AM CET – German Buba Monthly Report Cons: – Prev: –

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UK

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• 7:01 PM GMT – BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 0.6% Prev: 1.2%

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China

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• No major releases today.

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\nImplication: Today’s BCB Focus is the main domestic event — updated surveys could reinforce Selic easing bets if inflation views soften, bolstering real & equities.
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\nU.S. auctions and FOMC speaks are global highlights: strong demand/ hawkish tones could reinforce dollar, pressure EM currencies & commodities. Softer sentiment would ease dollar, support risk assets including BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Friday, January 9, 2026)

\nIbovespa +0.27% to 163,370.31 on R$22.9 billion turnover. Inflation within target (2025 at 4.26%) and EU-Mercosur progress lifted sentiment, oil up 2.28% to $63.34 boosted Petrobras, offsetting stretched momentum.
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\nEarly Monday mini-futures ~164,000–165,500 (~0.8% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.37. Charts bullish but consolidating below 164,263 resistance, weekly RSI 71.6.
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\nBovespa advances as inflation stays in bounds and global risk-on spreads
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Commodity Markets

\nGold – Breaks higher to near $4,585/oz amid Fed politics shock (Powell threats) and Iran risk driving safe-haven demand; spot ~$4,572 after intraday record ~$4,600, technicals overbought but positive.
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\nSilver – Rips to fresh records near $84.58/oz as politics, flows (SLV holdings up), and charts align; up 5.4%, momentum intact but pullback risk.
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\nCopper – Surges above $6/lb to ~$6.0387 as tariff fears, strikes (Chile Mantoverde threat), and stockpiling warp market; LME ~$13,000/ton, uptrend intact.
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\nPlatinum – Rebounds above $2,350 to ~$2,359 as precious-metals fear trade returns; surged to $2,413 then pulled back, RSI stretched.
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\nPalladium – New-year surge hits pause but uptrend leads; ~$1,904/oz, mid-$1,800s support, driven by macro fear and supply friction.
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\nAluminium – Rally tests tight physical market and policy-driven prices; LME ~$3,164/ton, inventories thinning (LME at 669,140 tons), U.S. premium record 96 cents/lb.
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\nIron Ore – Finds bid on restocking hopes but inventories loom; ~$108.8–$109.1/ton, supply dip from Australia/Brazil, China port stocks ~162.7M tons cap upside.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Holds firm near R$5.3658 after volatile week as global dollar strengthens; down 1.10% weekly amid U.S. jobs, inflation in bounds, Mercosur deal; technical consolidation, support ~5.36.
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\nAfter a volatile week Brazils real holds firm as global dollar strengthens
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Companies and Market

\nAzul’s crash-and-rebound was a restructuring math problem not a mood swing → R$7.44B recap via debt-to-equity, heavy dilution with 1.45T new shares, old AZUL4 to AZUL54 bundles.
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\nRio Tinto–Glencore talks hint at a mining mega-merger and Vale’s next challenge → Early-stage all-share acquisition discussions (~$260B EV group), copper focus; Vale faces competition for assets.
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\nPetroReconcavo’s December dip was planned while 2025 output still edged higher → Dec avg 25k boe/d (-0.7% MoM) due to Potiguar shutdown; 2025 avg 26.5k boe/d (+0.7% YoY); mentions Mandacaru Energia (9 fields), Brava Energia (shared accumulation operator).
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\nCopasa’s extra quarter reveals the real test behind Minas Gerais’ privatization push → 4Q25 volumes up 3.5%, connections rise; state law authorizes sale for investment/governance, critics cite tariff/job risks.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Friday, January 9, 2026)

\nRecord highs: Dow +0.48% to 49,504.07, S&P 500 +0.65% to 6,966.28, Nasdaq +0.8% to 23,671.35.
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\nMixed December jobs (50K added, unemployment 4.4%) supported soft-landing bets, chips led by Intel/Broadcom. Rates steady, 10-year ~4.18%. Weekly gains: Dow ~2.3%, S&P ~1.6%, Nasdaq ~1.9%.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:

\nColombia peso firm near 3,712/USD & COLCAP record 2,213.35 amid high rates/discipline
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\nMexico peso stronger ~17.92/USD, IPC record 66,062.62 on domestic demand
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\nArgentina peso steady ~1,464.5/USD post-debt payment, Merval up 0.5%
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\nChile peso firmer ~893.62/USD, IPSA ~10,929 near 11,000 lifted by copper records
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\nNote: Bitcoin held the low-90ks as privacy coins led a split crypto tape — ~$91,486 amid ETF outflows; Monero +17.7%, Zcash +7.0%; range repair phase.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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