Key Points
- Prices firmed as mills lifted output and traders leaned into restocking talk, even as port stockpiles stayed high.
- A short-term supply dip from Australia and Brazil helped steady the market, but the rally remains fragile.
- Charts look constructive on the daily timeframe, while the 4-hour view suggests momentum is cooling.
Iron ore started the week with a modest lift, with the key 62% fines benchmark hovering around $108.8–$109.1 a ton in early trading.
The move looked calm on the surface, but the drivers were not. Traders kept balancing a “policy support” narrative against stubbornly heavy inventories.
On the demand side, the market latched onto signs of improving steelmaking activity. Average daily pig iron output was cited around 2.3 million tons a day, and inventories at 247 mills were described as still low for the season.
That combination often encourages restocking. If blast furnaces run harder, mills need more ore. Prices tend to respond quickly. Supply, meanwhile, offered a mild tailwind.
Weekly shipment data pointed to declines from both major exporters, with Australian flows down about 1.74 million tons and Brazilian shipments down about 1.43 million tons.
Those are not huge numbers in global terms, but they matter when demand is only “better,” not booming. The biggest counterweight remained inventories.
One widely watched measure put imported ore stocks at major Chinese ports near 162.7 million tons, a level that can cap rallies.
Another data set, focused on 10 key ports, cited stocks around 114.64 million tons and suggested mild week-on-week destocking. Bulls emphasized the tighter readings. Bears emphasized the headline pile.
Policy talk added a floor. China’s cabinet was reported discussing fiscal and financial measures aimed at boosting domestic demand, including steps to support household consumption.
In commodity markets, that kind of signal can keep risk appetite alive even when fundamentals are mixed.
A broker view captured the mood: Galaxy Futures said coking coal’s surge was amplified by bullish iron ore sentiment, even though coal’s underlying fundamentals had not shifted much. That is often how momentum spreads across the steel complex.
Technically, the daily chart still looks constructive, with RSI near 62.5 and a positive MACD (about +0.19). The 4-hour chart also shows elevated RSI (near 63.8), but MACD momentum has flattened (around -0.02).
Traders are watching resistance around $109–$111, with a key marker near $111.55. Support sits near $108.3–$108.5, then roughly $107.7, $106.7, and $105.7.
A final wrinkle is the market’s ongoing adjustment toward more 61% references in parts of the pricing curve. It does not change today’s tape, but it can shift how spreads and differentials behave when volatility returns.
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