Key Points
- Gold pressed into the $4,600 zone after Fed-independence drama and Iran tension hit markets.
- The 4-hour chart is overbought, but daily and weekly momentum remain positive.
- Asia premiums, GLD holdings, and COMEX open interest show demand is not just speculative.
Gold traded near $4,585 an ounce in early Monday dealing (O $4,520; H $4,601; L $4,511). Reuters put spot around $4,572 after an intraday record near $4,600.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration threatened him with indictment and served grand-jury subpoenas tied to his testimony.
U.S. equity futures softened, the dollar slipped, and gold accelerated. “U.S. futures turned lower on the Powell news, which was a green light for gold to take a run higher,” said Tim Waterer of KCM Trade.
Markets punish meddling. Iran headlines added a second safe-haven impulse. The move follows a rough week. On January 5, gold jumped after U.S. strikes in Venezuela. It sold off sharply on January 7.
Gold rallies rate cuts priced
By January 9, it was rising again after payrolls undershot expectations and traders repriced for 2026 rate cuts. TD Securities strategist Bart Melek pointed to weaker job creation, geopolitical tension, oil-linked inflation risk, and policy uncertainty as a supportive mix.
Strategists are split on the runway. Morgan Stanley has discussed $4,800 by late 2026. HSBC flagged a wide 2026 range of roughly $3,950 to $5,050 and warned a correction risk rises if geopolitics cools or the Fed stops cutting.
Metals Focus has also said fresh record highs above $5,000 are plausible in 2026. Physical trade is reacting. India swung to premiums of up to about $15 an ounce.
China showed premiums near $3. Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan were described as near parity to small premiums. GLD holdings were shown at 1,064.56 tonnes as of January 9 (with a “2.57” change figure).
COMEX gold open interest ran near 488,116 contracts that week. Technicals are stretched. 4H RSI 76.58; MACD 34.05 vs 22.08 (hist 11.98). 1D RSI 69.59; MACD 78.31 vs 70.71 (hist 7.60).
Weekly RSI sits in the low-to-mid 70s. Resistance is $4,600–$4,601. Support sits near $4,574, then $4,526–$4,517, with deeper levels around $4,479 and $4,438.
Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | U.S. Hits ISIS Targets Across Syria After Deadly Palmyra Att This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American news and financial markets.