Key Points
- Copper is being pulled into the U.S. by a tariff-driven price premium, tightening supply elsewhere.
- A strike threat at Chile’s Mantoverde mine added fresh supply-risk fuel to an already stretched rally.
- Charts still point higher, but momentum is extended enough to make sharp pullbacks likely.
Copper started the week with the kind of price action that signals more than a routine commodities bounce. On the pricing screens used by many retail and professional traders, copper was around $6.0387 per pound early Monday, up about 2.05% on the day.
In London, the LME’s benchmark three-month contract was near the $13,000-per-ton level, after prints that showed trading around $13,088 to $13,200 with roughly 9,276 lots changing hands intraday.
The past week’s rally was powered by two forces that rarely align so cleanly: a supply shock narrative and a policy premium.
On supply, markets tracked the situation at Chile’s Mantoverde, where union leaders said negotiations had failed and warned the operation was close to shutting, relying on limited stockpiles.
That added urgency to broader “shortage” fears that helped push copper above $13,000 earlier in the month. On policy, the more unusual story has been the “plumbing.”
Copper premiums drive inventory surge
A steep premium on U.S. copper versus London prices encouraged traders to ship deliverable metal into Comex warehouses, swelling inventories beyond 450,000 tons. That flow can tighten availability in other regions even when demand is uneven.
It also comes as China’s refined copper exports totaled 698,500 tons in 2025, including 57,700 tons sent to the U.S. in November, underscoring how trade routes are shifting under incentives.
In Asia, China’s most-traded SHFE copper contract recently closed above 102,000 yuan per ton, while industry commentary pointed to spot discounts in North China and weaker operating rates for enamelled wire—evidence that high prices are starting to curb downstream buying.
Japan’s copper premium hitting a record high reinforced the sense of physical tightness. Investor positioning has followed.
One U.S. copper ETF reported a roughly $21 million one-day inflow last week, with assets around half a billion dollars, while a copper-miners fund sat near $703 million.
Technically, the uptrend remains intact: daily momentum is bullish, the 4-hour chart has re-accelerated, and the market is pressing resistance near $6.05–$6.06.
But weekly momentum is stretched, and $6.00 is now the line that matters. If it breaks, the next test likely sits in the high-$5.80s to low-$5.90s.
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