Brazil’s B3 Slides as U.S. Tariffs and Capital Flight Hit Confidence

Official market data from July 11, 2025, shows the B3’s Ibovespa index closed at 136,187.31 points, down 0.41% for the day and marking five consecutive sessions of losses.

The Brazilian real weakened to R$5.5475 against the U.S. dollar, reflecting ongoing capital outflows and heightened risk aversion among investors.

Trading volume reached 13.88 billion BRL, with volatility surging as the ETF volatility index hit 28.38, its highest in a month.

The day’s losses followed the announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by the United States, the highest among 23 countries targeted in a new round of trade measures.

President Lula responded by pledging to challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization and consider reciprocal actions if negotiations fail.

The market’s reaction remained cautious, with foreign investors pulling capital from Brazilian assets and local interest rates rising.

Heavyweight stocks such as Vale and Petrobras managed to close higher, buoyed by gains in iron ore and oil prices.

Brent crude futures advanced 2.51% to $70.36 per barrel, supporting oil-linked equities.

However, cyclical and export-oriented sectors dragged the index lower, as companies most exposed to tariffs saw sharp declines.

Yduqs led losses with a 7.40% drop, while BRF and Marfrig, both exposed to export markets, fell 4.35% and 4.17% respectively.

Brazil’s B3 Slides as U.S. Tariffs and Capital Flight Hit Confidence

On the positive side, PetroReconcavo gained 3.51% on oil sector strength, and MRV rose 3.05% after announcing the divestment of its U.S. subsidiary.

Global markets set the tone for the day. Wall Street indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, the S&P 500 off 0.33%, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.22%.

European shares fell sharply, as the Stoxx 600 dropped 1.01% amid renewed trade war fears.

Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei down 0.19% and the Hang Seng up 0.46%.

Technical analysis of the Ibovespa daily chart confirms a bearish trend. The index closed below key moving averages, indicating sustained downward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 43.03, approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained negative, with a widening gap that signals persistent bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands showed prices near the lower band, suggesting short-term oversold conditions without any clear reversal signal.

Support appeared near 135,140 points, with major support at 130,005. Resistance levels stood at 137,595 and 138,193.

The four-hour chart reinforced the negative outlook, with the RSI at 37.99 in oversold territory and the MACD deeply negative.

Price action remained below all major moving averages, and volatility stayed elevated. The technical setup, combined with macroeconomic pressures, points to continued caution.

Relief rallies may occur if global headlines improve, but the broader trend remains negative.

Brazil’s market story on July 11 centers on trade tensions, capital flight, and technical weakness.

The figures reflect a market under pressure, with fundamentals and technicals aligned on a cautious outlook.

Investors continue to watch for policy responses and signs of stabilization, but risk aversion prevails.

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