Brazil and US Met on Tariffs, Expect No Deal, and BTG’s Esteves Saw Trump
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
—What happened: Brazilian and American officials met on the tariff dispute, and Brasília says no deal is expected for now.
—The parallel track: BTG Pactual chairman André Esteves, Brazil’s most connected banker, met Donald Trump in the United States.
—Why it matters: A 50% US tariff on many Brazilian goods has been in force since August 2025, with exemptions for key exports.
—The catch: “No deal expected” is the official line, yet back-channel contacts like the Esteves meeting suggest movement behind it.
—Who it hits: The United States takes about 12% of Brazilian exports, roughly US$41 billion a year in recent data.
—What comes next: Brazil’s election on 4 October makes a quick concession politically harder for both governments.
Brasília and Washington sat down again over the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, and the government says no deal is coming soon. At the same time, BTG Pactual’s André Esteves met Donald Trump in the United States, keeping a private channel warm.
A meeting that produced no breakthrough
Brazilian and American officials met to discuss the Brazil US tariffs dispute, according to Brazilian press reports. The government said afterward that no agreement is expected at this stage.
That honest-sounding line matters. It tells exporters not to price in relief, and it tells Washington that Brasília will not rush to sign something weak.
The Brazil US tariffs fight dates from July 2025, when Trump announced a 50% levy on Brazilian products. He framed it as retaliation for the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The final measure exempted hundreds of products, from Embraer aircraft to orange juice, oil and pulp. What remains still bites coffee, meat, sugar and much of manufacturing.
A phone call between Lula and Trump in December 2025 removed the additional 40% layer on some goods. Talks have continued in fits and starts since, as we reported last week.
The banker who keeps meeting Trump
The more intriguing meeting happened away from the ministries. André Esteves, chairman of the investment bank BTG Pactual, met Trump in the United States, Brazilian media report.
What was said has not been disclosed. But Esteves has played this role before: in December 2025 he took the tariff and sanctions file directly to the Trump administration.
BTG has skin in the game on both sides. The bank published the most-cited estimate of the damage, up to US$13 billion in lost Brazilian exports in a full-tariff 2026 scenario.
Esteves was also at Lula’s dinner with bankers at the Alvorada palace this week, as we reported this morning. He is now the rare figure who dines with the president and meets his American counterpart’s camp in the same week.
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Why neither side is in a hurry
For Lula, the tariff fight has been politically useful. Standing up to Trump lifted his approval last year, and conceding before the 4 October election would hand the opposition a gift.
For Trump, Brazil is a small trade problem and a large symbolic one. The Brazil US tariffs dispute began over Bolsonaro’s prosecution, and that grievance does not expire with a negotiating round.
The United States is Brazil’s second-largest export market after China, taking about 12% of sales abroad. It is the top buyer of high-value manufactures like aircraft and machinery.
That asymmetry is why Brazil US tariffs hurt specific sectors rather than the whole economy. Agribusiness can reroute to China; an Embraer supplier chain cannot.
What to watch from here
The first signal is whether the official channel meets again before October. A scheduled round on the Brazil US tariffs would contradict the “no deal expected” mood.
The second is the private track. If Esteves or another business figure carries a proposal back to Brasília, the talks are alive regardless of the official line.
The third is the exemption list. Quiet additions to the exempted products have been Trump’s preferred way of de-escalating without declaring a deal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Brazil and the US reach a tariff deal?
No. Officials from both governments met to discuss the dispute, and the Brazilian government said no agreement is expected at this stage, according to Brazilian press reports.
Why did Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods?
Trump announced the levy in July 2025 as retaliation for the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The final order exempted hundreds of products, including aircraft, orange juice, oil and pulp.
Who is André Esteves and why did he meet Trump?
Esteves is chairman of BTG Pactual, Brazil’s biggest investment bank. He met Trump in the United States, Brazilian media report; he had already taken the tariff file to the Trump administration in December 2025.
How much do the Brazil US tariffs cost?
BTG Pactual estimated losses of up to US$13 billion in Brazilian exports in a full-tariff 2026 scenario. The United States takes about 12% of Brazil’s exports, roughly US$41 billion a year in recent data.
When could the dispute be resolved?
Not before Brazil’s election on 4 October 2026, most observers believe. Conceding early would hurt Lula politically, and Trump’s original grievance was political rather than commercial.
Connected Coverage
Esteves was at the president’s table this week, as we reported in Lula’s Alvorada dinner with bankers. Last week: Lula praises the Trump call as tariff talks resume.
Sources: Brazilian press reports of 30–31 August 2026 on the Brasília–Washington meeting and the Esteves–Trump meeting; White House executive order of July 2025; BTG Pactual estimates.
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