Datafolha Poll Projections for 2020 São Paulo Mayoralty Election

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A Datafolha poll released on Thursday, October 22nd, points to surprisingly different voting intention percentages for the top candidates for São Paulo Mayor in the 2020 Elections when compared with the prior poll published October 8th:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB – Brazilian Social Democratic Party): 23 percent (up from 21% in the prior poll)
• Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 20 percent (down from 30%)
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL – Socialism and Liberty Party): 14 percent (up from 12%)
• Marcio França (PSB – Brazilian Socialist Party): 10 percent (up from 8%)
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Falei (Patriotas): 4 percent
• Jilmar Tatto (PT – Workers’ Party): 4 percent
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL – Social Liberal Party): 3 percent
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD – Social Democratic Party): 2 percent
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB – Brazilian Labor Renewal Party): 1 percent
• Marina Helou (Rede – Sustainability Network): 1 percent
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB – Brazilian Communist Party): 1 percent
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU – Unified Workers’ Socialist Party): 1 percent
• None/Blank/Void: 13 percent
• Do not know: 3 percent

Highlight by segment

According to Datafolha, Russomanno suffered a steeper decline in the 16 to 24 age bracket (from 35 to 20 percent), a segment in which he led with a slack in the preceding poll and now stands behind Boulos, who increased from 17 to 27 percent among the youngest over the same period. The Republicanos candidate also suffered a sharper drop among voters with monthly family incomes of between two and five salaries (from 28 to 17 percent) and lost half of the votes among those with the PT as their favorite party (from 36 to 18 percent).

Bruno Covas continues to perform worst among the younger electorate, where he dropped from 14 to 12 percent. In the next bracket, 25 to 34 years old, he climbed from 16 to 23 percent, his highest rise in the past two weeks.

Despite the increase among the youngest voters, Boulos lost his voting intentions in the next bracket, aged 25 to 34 (from 19 to 15 percent).

Márcio França’s positive swing was mainly driven by the increase among the 16 to 24-year-old bracket (from four to nine percent) and in the electorate with an income of between two and five salaries (from seven to 12 percent). Among the wealthiest, with an income above ten salaries, the preference for the ex-governor dropped by half (from 13 to six percent).

PT’s Jilmar Tatto managed to move up among his party’s supporters, who represent 16 percent of São Paulo’s electorate and give him 20 percent of voting intentions at this point, against seven percent in the preceding poll. Tatto currently holds close to one in every five votes from the electorate who have the PT as their favorite party, and the remainder is distributed mainly among Boulos (23 percent), Covas (16 percent), Russomanno (18 percent), and França (eight percent).

Rejection

The poll also inquired about which candidates voters would not be willing to vote for under any circumstances. The percentages were as follows:

• Celso Russomanno: 38 percent
• Joice Hasselmann: 33 percent
• Levy Fidelix: 26 percent
• Bruno Covas: 25 percent
• Guilherme Boulos: 24 percent
• Jilmar Tatto: 23 percent
• Filipe Sabará: 21 percent
• Vera Lúcia: 20 percent
• Arthur do Val: 20 percent
• Orlando Silva: 19 percent
• Márcio França: 16 percent
• Antonio Carlos Silva: 15 percent
• Marina Helou: 15 percent
• Andrea Matarazzo: 14 percent
• Rejects all/ would not vote for any: 5 percent
• Would vote for any/rejects none: 2 percent
• Do not know: 4 percent

[Respondents could name more than one candidate, therefore the sum of the factors pointed out is over 100 percent.]

Spontaneous poll

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intention, when voters state who they will vote for without having any names of candidates suggested to them:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 13 percent
• Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 11 percent
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 11 percent
• Márcio França (PSB): 5 percent
• Arthur do Val (Patriotas): 3 percent
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 2 percent
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1 percent
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1 percent
• PT Candidate: 2 percent
• Others: 4 percent
• None/Blank/Void: 12 percent
• Do not know: 36 percent

Respondent’s level of awareness of the candidate:

• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 97 percent know him (53 percent very well, 25 percent somewhat, and 19 percent of hearing about him) and 3 percent do not know him;
• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 97 percent know him (50 percent very well, 30 percent somewhat, and 17 percent from hearing about him) and 3 percent do not know him;
• Márcio França (PSB): 79 percent know him (24 percent very well, 27 percent somewhat, and 28 percent from hearing about him) and 21 percent do not know him;
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 71 percent know him (16 percent very well, 24 percent somewhat, and 31 percent from hearing about him) and 29 percent do not know him;
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 57 percent know him (23 percent very well, 14 percent somewhat, and 20 percent from hearing about him) and 43 percent do not know him;
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 56 percent know him (11 percent very well, 18 percent somewhat, and 27 percent from hearing about him) and 44 percent do not know him;
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 53 percent know her (15 percent very well, 18 percent somewhat, and 20 percent from hearing about her) and 47 percent do not know her;
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 52 percent know him (14 percent very well, 18 percent somewhat, and 21 percent from hearing about him) and 48 percent do not know him;
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 38 percent know him (8 percent very well, 14 percent somewhat, and 16 percent from hearing about him) and 62 percent do not know him;
• Arthur do Val (Patriots): 28 percent know him (9 percent very well, 8 percent somewhat, and 12 percent from hearing about him) and 72 percent do not know him;
• Filipe Sabará (Novo): 23 percent know him (2 percent very well, 6 percent somewhat, and 16 percent from hearing about him) and 77 percent do not know him;
• Marina Helou (Rede): 29 percent know her (2 percent very well, 6 percent somewhat, and 12 percent from hearing about her) and 80 percent do not know her;
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 15 percent know her (1 percent very well, 4 percent somewhat, and 9 percent from hearing about her) and 85 percent do not know her;
• Antônio Carlos Silva (PCO): 13 percent know him (1 percent very well, 4 percent somewhat, and 8 percent from hearing about him) and 87 percent do not know him.

Second round simulations

Datafolha also asked if the second round of the mayoral election were held today and the dispute were between Bruno Covas and Celso Russomanno. The results were completely different from the prior poll. Respondents now favor Bruno Covas (48 percent) over Celso Russomano (36 percent), whereas only 15 days ago, Russomano was shown beating Covas by 46 percent to 40 percent.

About the poll

• The poll was commissioned by TV Globo and Folha de S. Paulo newspaper.
• Error margin: three percentage points plus or minus
• Who was heard: 1204 voters in the city of São Paulo aged 16 and over.
• Poll date: October 20th and 21st, 2020.
• The reliability level used is 95 percent. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the error margin.

Source: G1