Colombia’s Peso Firms As The Global Dollar Eases; Stocks Knock On 1,900

The Colombian peso strengthened into Friday morning, trading around 3,862–3,865 per dollar after an active onshore session Thursday that opened near 3,886, hit 3,840, and settled close to 3,844 on roughly $1.7 billion in Set-FX turnover.

Today’s official TRM is 3,877.07. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near 98.2 overnight—soft enough to give higher-carry emerging currencies a lift even as Brent crude loitered near $61.

What happened, in plain terms: global investors stepped a little away from the dollar while they reassessed U.S. growth and rate-cut timing. When the world’s reserve currency weakens, money tends to seek yield elsewhere.

Colombia offers that yield. Banco de la República kept its policy rate at 9.25% at the end of September, and inflation slowed to 5.18% year on year—still sticky, but enough to keep real rates positive. That combination makes the peso attractive to hold, so dips are being bought.

The story behind the story is oil and positioning. Cheaper crude normally dents Colombia’s terms of trade and the peso, yet the immediate driver this week has been the dollar’s slide and steady local policy, which together outweighed the drag from energy.

Locally, liquidity was solid—more than 2,100 FX trades on Thursday—helping price discovery and smoothing intraday swings. Equities told a similar tale of cautious optimism.

The MSCI COLCAP rose 0.39% to 1,898.86 on COP 155.9 billion in turnover, staying within a whisker of the 1,900 ceiling. On the daily chart the index sits above key moving averages with momentum improving; the four-hour view shows higher lows since late September.

For FX, four-hour indicators are oversold after the slide, making a bounce toward 3,865–3,885 plausible, but the daily trend remains gently lower unless 3,890–3,900 is reclaimed.

Why this matters beyond Colombia: a firmer peso helps importers and travelers, relieves some price pressure, and signals that selective risk appetite is alive even with shaky oil.

Watch two pivots into next week: if the Dollar Index drifts toward 97, USD/COP could test the low-3,800s; if it rebounds above 99—or if oil sinks further—peso gains likely stall and COLCAP’s push through 1,900 gets harder.

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