Brazil Grew More Soybeans Than Ever — and Now It Can’t Get Them on a Ship

The soybeans are there — mountains of them, piling up across Mato Grosso’s warehouses as combines roll through what is shaping up to be the largest harvest in Brazilian history. What’s missing is a way to get them out of the country. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American markets and financial news.

Data released Monday by Brazil’s foreign trade secretariat showed shipments in the first week of February running more than a quarter below last year’s daily average of 321,400 tons. The culprit is stubbornly simple: rain.

Maritime agency Cargonave reported that Santos and Paranaguá — the country’s two busiest export terminals — have suffered their worst loading disruptions since January, with wet weather continuing into February.

The slowdown is surprising because everything else points to a boom. Planted area expanded 3.5% to a record 48.9 million hectares, Conab projects output at 177 million tons, and the harvest is running ahead of last year’s pace.

Exporters’ group ANEC still expects February shipments to reach 11.42 million tons, well above last year. Yet the delays land at an awkward moment.

Brazil’s soybean boom faces demand risks

China — which absorbed nearly 80% of Brazil’s record 107 million tons in exports last year — has been diversifying after reaching a trade truce with Washington in October.

Beijing pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of American soybeans, though actual purchases have fallen well short. Most private Chinese importers still favor Brazilian beans, which carry lower tariffs, but the political signal unsettles planners.

The deeper worry is what happens once the rain stops and the grain starts moving. With exports forecast at an unprecedented 112 million tons for 2026, Brazil’s soybean crushers’ association Abiove warns that ending stockpiles will hit their highest level in nine years — even as domestic processing ramps up to meet a higher biodiesel mandate.

Farmer margins in Mato Grosso, the country’s top producing state, have turned negative when factoring in land and financing costs.

“In 2025, Brazil had a bumper harvest but exported very well because there was a trade war,” noted AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira. “For 2026, there is no such guarantee.”

The world’s largest soybean exporter is learning that growing a record crop is only half the battle — the other half is finding someone willing to buy it all.

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