Brazil Gives Flávio 24 Hours to Pull Fake Drug Video
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October, electoral judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Flávio and several allies to delete a fake drug video within 24 hours.
- —The video A clip of apparent drug use, posted on X on 10 October and apparently filmed in Chile, was shared as Lula rally footage.
- —The US link The clip first surfaced on X, and one Instagram post drew about 1.1 million views; Exame reports Meta must remove copies.
- —Still open The full court must still review the order; a fine of up to R$30,000 (about US$6,000) per post is only requested.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (13 October, 2:18 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 13 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s electoral court has ordered presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and several allies to delete a fake drug video about a rally for President Lula. Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze gave them 24 hours on Monday 12 October, 13 days before the runoff.
The clip of a young woman apparently taking drugs first appeared on X a day before the São Paulo rally, apparently filmed in Chile. For American readers, the case shows how closely Brazil now polices election falsehoods on US-owned platforms such as Instagram and X.
What the Electoral Court Ordered
Bellizze is one of the judges of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil’s elections and rules on campaign advertising. He granted an injunction, a temporary order issued before a full hearing, at the request of Lula’s coalition, Brasil Pronto pra Mais.
Exame, a São Paulo business magazine, reports that the order covers Flávio, his brother Carlos Bolsonaro and congressman Nikolas Ferreira. It also names Lucas Pavanato, influencer Pablo Marçal and the Liberal Party (PL).
Brasil 247, a left-leaning news site, also names Flávio, Carlos and Marçal. Both outlets say the fake drug video must come down within 24 hours.
Exame reports that Bellizze refused to suspend the accounts outright or to ban future videos in general, citing free expression.
Exame also reports that Meta, the US owner of Instagram and Facebook, must remove copies on other people’s pages. One sat on the profile of São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
Tarcísio, of the conservative Republicanos party and a former minister under Jair Bolsonaro, is not a party to the case. The injunction now goes to the full court, and the electoral prosecution service will give its opinion, Exame says.
How a Clip From Chile Became Rally Footage
Lula’s supporters marched on Avenida Paulista, São Paulo’s main avenue, on Sunday 11 October. The clip had first appeared on X on Saturday 10 October and was apparently recorded in Chile, Brasil 247 reports.
Lula’s coalition filed its complaint on Monday, according to Poder360, a Brasília politics site. It says one video tied rally-goers to marijuana and cocaine use and ended with a call to vote for Flávio.
The coalition called the posts a very serious manipulation designed to deceive voters. One post with the fake drug video reached about 1.1 million views on Instagram before the case reached court, Poder360 and Exame report.
Bellizze called the montage a “grave manipulation by decontextualisation”, according to Brasil 247. Showing the clip without saying where or when it was filmed led viewers to read it as footage of the rally, he wrote.
“The controversy is not about preventing political criticism or deciding whether there was drug use at the demonstration,” the judge wrote, as quoted by Exame. The question, he said, was whether an older video had been presented as showing someone at that event.
Who Is Involved
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the Liberal Party (PL), the conservative party of the Bolsonaro family.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and is seeking a fourth term. Nikolas Ferreira is a PL congressman from Minas Gerais with a large online following.
Pablo Marçal is a businessman and social media influencer who ran for mayor of São Paulo in 2024. Lucas Pavanato is a PL city councillor in São Paulo who won a seat in Congress on 4 October, Poder360 reports.
What It Means for You
For investors, the runoff decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy from January 2027. Court fights over online posts are now part of the final stretch for both camps.
The orders cut both ways: on Sunday, another electoral judge told a union federation to delete five posts critical of Flávio. Brazilian judges can order US platforms to remove election content within hours.
For anyone following the race online, the fake drug video is a reminder that viral clips can be old or filmed elsewhere. Checking the date and place of a video before sharing it is the simplest defence.
What Is Not Known
As of Tuesday morning, the TSE had not published the decision or a statement on the case on its website. Exame and Brasil 247 carry no response from Flávio’s campaign or the other people named.
It is not yet clear whether every post has come down, or whether any of those named will appeal to the full court. Who first turned the Chilean clip into the fake drug video is also unknown.
The coalition also wants a fine of up to R$30,000 (about US$6,000) per post. That conversion uses about 4.99 reais to the US dollar on 13 October 2026.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning the runoff (13 October, 2:18 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 12.5%, in a market with about US$180 million in total bets.
A separate Polymarket contract on the winning margin moved over the past day. Bets on a Flávio win by less than 4 points rose 12.5 points to 35.5%, close behind a 4-to-8-point win at 38%.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.4% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 13 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Brazil’s electoral court order?
Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze of the Superior Electoral Court ordered Flávio Bolsonaro and several allies to delete a fake drug video within 24 hours. He issued the injunction on Monday 12 October at the request of President Lula’s coalition.
Was the drug video filmed at the Lula rally?
No. The clip was first posted on X on 10 October, a day before the rally, and was apparently filmed in Chile. Exame, Brasil 247 and the coalition’s complaint all trace it to Chile.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro be fined over the fake drug video?
Not yet. Lula’s coalition asked for a fine of up to R$30,000 (about US$6,000) per post, and the full court still has to rule on the case.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro takes place on Sunday 25 October 2026. The winner takes office in January 2027.
Sources: Exame, 12 October 2026; Brasil 247, 12 October 2026; Poder360, 12 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief