BRAZIL · ENVIRONMENT
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil holds most of the Amazon rainforest and the Cerrado savanna, the two biomes that together account for about 90% of its deforestation.
- —Why it matters Carbon dioxide mixes in the global atmosphere, so emissions that Brazil avoids by leaving forest standing reduce climate damage everywhere, including in the United States.
- —Why now An economist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation published the estimate on Monday 19 October 2026, three days after the space research institute INPE released record-low clearing data on Friday 16 October.
- —What happened The study values the climate damage avoided by Brazil’s lower deforestation in 2023 to 2026 at US$216 billion at 2024 prices, in its central case.
- —The numbers Amazon clearing fell 41.8% to 3,335 square kilometres, the lowest since the series began in 1988, and the study counts 1.49 billion tonnes of avoided emissions.
- —What it means for you The US$216 billion is a modelled estimate that ranges from US$115 billion to about US$1.8 trillion depending on the carbon price, so it is not a bill or a payment.
- —Still open Whether the decline lasts, how much of the estimate Brazil is paid for, and how well the avoided-emissions model holds for 2025 and 2026.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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Brazil deforestation has fallen far enough since 2023 to avoid about 1.49 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, which an economist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) values at R$1.16 trillion (US$216 billion) in avoided climate damage worldwide. The estimate by Bráulio Borges of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics, known as Ibre, was published on Monday 19 October 2026 and reported by Agência Brasil and InfoMoney on Tuesday 20 October.
For US readers the figure matters because carbon dioxide spreads through the whole atmosphere, so the damage avoided is shared by every country, and the Amazon and Cerrado are farm frontiers for the soy and beef that enter global supply chains. Borges uses a central carbon price of US$145 per tonne, below the Rennert et al. value he used in 2022, which was US$185 in 2020 dollars (about US$251 in 2024 dollars) and which his new paper says the US Environmental Protection Agency later adopted.
The estimate rests on official satellite counts that Brazil released on Friday 16 October. Our earlier report, Brazil Cut Deforestation in 2025, but the Cerrado Still Leads, covers a different measurement by the MapBiomas research network.
What Brazil Deforestation Data Shows
INPE, Brazil’s national space research institute, reported that Amazon deforestation between August 2025 and July 2026 totalled 3,335 square kilometres (about 1,290 square miles), down 41.8% from 5,731 square kilometres a year earlier. It is the lowest figure since the series began in 1988, below the previous low of 4,571 square kilometres in 2012, and INPE says the Amazon total is an estimate from priority images, with the consolidated rate due in the first half of 2027.
In the Cerrado, a savanna south of the Amazon that is also a soy and cattle frontier, clearing fell 23.8% to 5,516.69 square kilometres from 7,235.27, the lowest since that series began in 2001. Pará lost 1,130 square kilometres of Amazon forest, Mato Grosso 849 and Amazonas 525, while the four states of the Matopiba frontier made up 74.3% of Cerrado clearing.
Borges notes that Amazon clearing is 71% below the 11,594 square kilometres of 2022, and that the two biomes together fell from 22,300 square kilometres in 2022 to 8,900 in 2026, a drop of about 60%. He compares 2023 to 2026 with the 2019 to 2022 average of about 19,700 square kilometres a year, which leaves about 22,300 square kilometres not cleared, an area slightly larger than the state of Sergipe.
How the US$216 Billion Is Calculated
Borges converts the avoided clearing into 1.49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent not emitted in 2023 to 2026, which he says equals about 70% of Brazil’s gross emissions of 2.15 billion tonnes in 2024. The Environment Ministry published a lower estimate of 1.1 billion tonnes, which he treats as a floor and which gives about US$160 billion at the same carbon price.
He then applies the social cost of carbon, a dollar value for the damage caused by one extra tonne of carbon dioxide, of US$145 per tonne in his central case. That figure is the average of studies from the last 10 years in a database kept by economist Richard Tol of the University of Sussex, and it yields R$1.16 trillion at each year’s average exchange rate, or US$216 billion at 2024 prices.
The range is wide: the median of recent studies gives US$115 billion (R$621 billion), while a 2026 paper by Bilal and Känzig in the Quarterly Journal of Economics would give R$9.8 trillion (about US$1.8 trillion). Borges calls that last result controversial, because it extrapolates from data for 1960 to 2019.
What Stays in Brazil
For Brazil’s own economy, Borges estimates a gain of US$12.4 billion (R$67 billion) using a local carbon cost of about US$8.3 per tonne, and up to US$36 billion (R$192 billion) using a national value of US$24 per tonne from a 2018 paper in Nature Climate Change. Most of it is avoided damage, such as fewer crop losses and less heat stress on workers, which no official statistic records.
He adds that the estimate leaves out the effect of the forest on regional rainfall, which a study he cites values at about US$20 billion a year, or about US$60 per hectare of Amazon forest. Borges argues that cutting deforestation is not incompatible with farm growth, because agribusiness is one of the main beneficiaries of the rain the forest generates.
He concludes that the global benefit is larger than what Brazil receives from the Amazon Fund, carbon credit markets and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility launched at the COP30 climate summit in Belém last year. In his words, translated from Portuguese and reported by Agência Brasil, those amounts are still “a very small fraction” of the estimated gains.
Enforcement Behind the Drop
The federal government credits a strategy that combines satellite monitoring, inspections, land-tenure measures and farm incentives, under two action plans restored in 2023. From 2023 to 2026 the environment agency Ibama carried out 76,095 inspections, issued 25,101 fines for offences against flora worth R$11.8 billion (US$2.4 billion) and embargoed 18,630 square kilometres, INPE’s release said.
The Amazon Fund, managed by the development bank BNDES, had 160 approved projects and R$7.8 billion (US$1.6 billion) committed in October 2026. On 16 October the Fund also announced R$147.6 million (US$29 million) for an INPE system that uses artificial intelligence to merge the yearly Prodes counts with the near-real-time Deter alerts.
What It Means for You
US companies that buy Brazilian beef, soy or timber should note that Brazil deforestation is at a record low in the official national count, but INPE’s totals say nothing about whether a given farm or supplier is clean. The estimate is also not a payment owed to Brazil, because the study itself says most of the benefit is not remunerated.
Readers who use carbon prices in analysis should treat US$216 billion as one point in a range from US$115 billion to US$1.8 trillion, set by the carbon price chosen. Our guides Brazil Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Brazil Explained 2026 explain the farm and forest economy behind the numbers, and the São Paulo expat city guide covers daily life for Americans in Brazil’s largest city.
What Is Not Known
The US$216 billion rests on an assumption that, without the policy change from 2023, clearing would have stayed at the 2019 to 2022 average, which Borges calls reasonably conservative. Emissions for 2025 and 2026 are not measured but projected by a model fitted to official emissions data that end in 2024.
Agência Brasil and InfoMoney wrote that Amazon clearing was the lowest since 1998, but INPE and the Ibre study both give 1988, the start of the series, which we use. FGV states that opinions in the Ibre post are the author’s alone, so the estimate is not an institutional FGV position.
The sources do not show whether Brazil deforestation will keep falling, or how much of the R$11.8 billion (US$2.4 billion) in fines has been collected. No source gives a US-specific share of the avoided damage.
For wider context on how the forest, farms and foreign policy interact, see Brazil Geopolitics Explained 2026. INPE counts clearing from August to July each year, so the next full-year figure is a year away.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Brazil deforestation fall in 2026?
INPE reported that Amazon deforestation fell 41.8% to 3,335 square kilometres between August 2025 and July 2026, a record low in a series that began in 1988. Cerrado clearing fell 23.8% to 5,516.69 square kilometres, a record low in a series that began in 2001.
How is the US$216 billion calculated?
Economist Bráulio Borges multiplies 1.49 billion tonnes of avoided carbon dioxide equivalent by a social cost of carbon of US$145 per tonne. The result is R$1.16 trillion at yearly average exchange rates, or US$216 billion at 2024 prices.
Is the US$216 billion an official figure?
No, it comes from a post on the Ibre blog of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, and FGV says the opinions are the author’s alone. The government figures in the story are the INPE satellite counts and the Ibama enforcement totals.
Which states cleared the most Amazon forest?
Pará lost 1,130 square kilometres, Mato Grosso 849 and Amazonas 525, according to INPE. In the Cerrado, Maranhão lost 1,718.59 square kilometres and Tocantins 1,263.06.
What does the drop mean for US buyers of Brazilian beef and soy?
The national clearing rate is at a record low, but the figures do not say whether any single supplier is free of deforestation. Buyers still need farm-level checks.
Sources: INPE, 16 October 2026; Blog do Ibre (FGV), Borges, October 2026; Ibre study PDF; Agência Brasil, 20 October 2026; InfoMoney, 20 October 2026; INPE, Amazon Fund support, 16 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil PTAX, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief