Today, Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the Selic rate by 0.5%, bringing it to an annual 12.75%.
This is the lowest since June 2022. The market had predicted this change. It’s the second cut of the same size. Experts foresee the rate dropping to 11.75% by year-end.
The Central Bank uses this rate to control public buying power. The rate ties to the IPCA, Brazil’s inflation measure.
In the last year, this number rose to 4.61%. So, the rate affects the economy for about 18 months.
The aim is to maintain inflation within set limits. However, projections indicate a 4.86% inflation rate for this year. This surpasses the 4.75% upper limit.
Recent government criticisms target the Central Bank’s actions. Despite this, the bank insists these moves aren’t political.
Controlling inflation is the focus. An early rate cut could make things worse. In 2021 and 2022, the bank failed to meet inflation targets.
They issued public letters to explain these misses. For 2023, there’s a 61% chance of overshooting again.
Finally, a study shows Brazil now ranks second in global real interest rates. Mexico takes the top spot. Over the next year, the adjusted rate will likely be 6.4%.
Background
The rate cut reflects the Central Bank’s confidence in controlling inflation. Still, this isn’t without risks.
The past failures to meet inflation targets cast a shadow on the current policies. It raises concerns about whether a lower Selic rate can keep inflation in check.
Experts highlight the importance of achieving the new rate projections. Failing to do so could undermine market trust.
This, in turn, could spur further inflation. Moreover, the rate cut may have political implications.
Some see it as a way to spur economic growth, benefiting the current government. But the Central Bank has denied this claim.
In the global context, Brazil’s position has shifted. Falling to second place in real interest rates might impact foreign investments.
However, the rate cut could mean increased purchasing power for the average Brazilian. Still, only time will reveal the full impact of this economic move.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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