Argentina’s Dollar Gap Narrows as Merval Hovers Near Record Highs

Key Points

• The blue-dollar premium stayed near 2%, pointing to reduced stress in FX pricing.
• S&P Merval fell 0.11% but remained close to record levels, with moves driven by a few liquid names.
• Markets are focused on the 2026 budget, reserve rebuilding, and the January debt calendar.

Argentina opened Tuesday with an unusually tight alignment across its many dollar gauges. Banco Nación’s retail official dollar was around 1,475 pesos for sale, while the “blue” traded near 1,505—about a 2% premium.

Financial rates were also clustered: the MEP dollar near 1,493 and the “contado con liquidación” around the mid-1,540s, though some published closes placed it nearer 1,570.

The global backdrop was supportive. The dollar index hovered around 98 and eased roughly 0.2% in thin, year-end trade. Still, the local driver set is domestic and political.

Investors are digesting plans to index the FX band to inflation from January 2026 and to accelerate reserve accumulation, with targets discussed in the $10–$17 billion range.

Attention is also on whether Congress clears the 2026 budget, after President Javier Milei signaled he would not veto it and said spending would be adjusted to preserve a zero deficit.

Technicals reflect a market that is firm but not rushing. A wholesale USD/ARS reference on ICE/TradingView printed around 1,451.5 early Tuesday, capped near resistance around 1,452.7.

First support sits near 1,450.3, with a lower cushion around 1,447.3–1,448. Short-term momentum is constructive, with the 4-hour RSI around 64.6, while the daily RSI is near 57.5—more consolidation than breakout.

Equities told the same story. The S&P Merval ended Monday at 3,136,090, down 0.11% but still near highs, with local turnover around 10 billion. Traders said the “drivers” into the final sessions are budget clarity, reserve accumulation, and country risk.

Top winners: Sociedad Comercial del Plata (+3.35%), Banco de Valores (+2.88%), Central Puerto (+2.43%), Grupo Supervielle (+1.16%), YPF (+0.82%).

Top losers: Ternium Argentina (-4.11%), Aluar (-3.24%), Transener (-2.03%), BYMA (-1.17%), Cresud (-1.10%).

Foreign participation looks more cautious: Argentine ADRs were mixed, and the ARGT ETF has seen about $12.05 million of net outflows over the past five sessions.

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