Milei’s Image Recovery in Argentina Slowed by Wages, Utility Bills and Household Debt
POLITICS · ARGENTINA
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy, has been led since December 2023 by Javier Milei, a libertarian economist. The next presidential election is due in October 2027.
- —What happened A QSocial survey of 1,504 people in September put approval of Milei’s government at 35%, up from 31% in June but below 51% in December 2025, Ámbito reported on 30 September.
- —The numbers 82% of households report at least one debt (QSocial, September). Real supermarket sales in January–July 2026 were 15.8% below the same months of 2023 (Ficonomics, September).
- —What it means for you Country risk, Argentina’s borrowing premium over US Treasuries, closed at 607 points on 29 September (Infobae). That makes credit dearer, although monthly inflation eased to 1.7% in August.
- —Still open Whether stability reaches wages and shopping before the 2027 vote. Analysts quoted by iProfesional on 30 September see country risk between about 650 and 800 points by year-end.
Argentina’s real economy is slowing a partial recovery in President Javier Milei’s approval, according to three private reports compiled by Ámbito. The newspaper published them on 30 September. A QSocial survey put approval at 35% in September, four points above June’s low.
In the real economy, the reports point to household debt, dearer utilities and weak supermarket sales. Investors are pricing the same doubts, with country risk ending Tuesday at 607 points, down from 628 a day earlier.
Approval Stops Falling, but the Gap Remains
QSocial’s national online survey found 35% approval and 61% disapproval in September. Its series shows approval at 51% in December 2025 and 31% in June 2026.
Asked about the economy, 34% said it was shrinking and 22% said it was stagnant. Only 12% said growth was reaching most people.
Ámbito cautions that the figures show a link in time, not proof that the economy alone drives approval. Other gauges agree on weakness: the Di Tella confidence index matched its term low in September.
Debt, Bills and Emptier Trolleys
In the QSocial survey, 82% of households said they owe money. The most common forms are instalment purchases (57%), loans from family or friends (46%) and app-based loans (44%).
Some 36% said they are behind on payments or cannot pay, and another 32% pay only with great effort.
The consultancy Ficonomics found real supermarket sales from January to July 15.8% below 2023 and 7% below 2025. All 24 provinces and districts fell, El Intransigente also reported.
The gap equals about 3.41 trillion pesos (about US$2.2 billion at 1,524 pesos per US dollar on 30 September). The north suffered most, with the Northeast down 32.8%, while Patagonia fell 10.9%.
The real economy also has a stabiliser. Formal private wages, on an annual moving average, are back at November 2023 levels in 15 of 24 jurisdictions.
Fixed costs explain much of the rest. In greater Buenos Aires, a power, gas, water and transport basket rose 944% from December 2023 to August 2026. Consumer prices rose 249%.
Those figures come from the tariffs observatory of IIEP, a University of Buenos Aires economics institute, as cited by Ficonomics. The basket’s share of the average formal wage rose from about 6% to 14.5%.
Markets Price the 2027 Vote Early
JP Morgan’s country-risk index rose for 12 sessions and closed at 628 on Monday, iProfesional reported. On Tuesday it fell 21 points to 607 as the central bank bought US$70 million, Infobae said.
The consultancy Outlier told iProfesional the sell-off reflects local election doubt, not global factors. It sees no move above 700 this year without fresh bad news.
Analyst Gustavo Ber sees a possible rise towards 800 late in the year, after a pause near 650. Infobae noted that a bond due before the vote yields 4.4%, against 11.6% for one due after.
The external side offers support. INDEC, the statistics office, reported a second-quarter balance-of-payments surplus of US$2.214 billion, helped by a record goods-and-services surplus. Milei told French media that 2026 and 2027 financing is “completely assured”.
Tuesday’s moves are tracked in our Argentina markets report for 30 September.
What Is Not Yet Known
It is unclear whether 35% marks a floor or a pause while the real economy lags. QSocial’s figures are an online sample and have not been independently confirmed by other pollsters.
Nor is it known whether central-bank dollar buying and export gains will lift incomes before 2027. The date of any primaries is also open, as a bill to scrap them is stalled in the Senate.
Sources: Ámbito, 30 Sep 2026 (QSocial, Ficonomics, Apliconomy reports); iProfesional, 30 Sep 2026; iProfesional markets, 29 Sep 2026; Infobae, 30 Sep 2026; El Intransigente, 30 Sep 2026; Ámbito markets, 30 Sep 2026.
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