Argentina Merval Tests 200-Day SMA After 14.6% Drop From Record High

The S&P Merval suffered its most punishing week of 2026, with Friday’s 1.3% decline capping a five-session losing streak that erased 5.4% in pesos and 4.4% in dollar terms. The index closed at 2,816,128 points — well below the psychologically critical 3-million-point level it breached during Thursday’s 5.5% collapse, the worst single-session drop of the year. In dollar terms via the CCL, the Merval sank to approximately 1,912 — its lowest in nearly three months and a stark retreat from the January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentine markets and Latin American financial news.

Banking stocks, which drove the Merval’s late-2025 rally, bore the brunt of the correction for the second consecutive session. Sociedad Comercial del Plata led Friday’s losses at -3.8%, followed by Grupo Financiero Galicia (-3.3%) and Banco BBVA (-3.0%). The General Panel also recorded widespread losses of up to 3.7%. Only steelmaker Ternium managed a meaningful gain, rising 3.5% as investors rotated into commodity-linked industrials.

The sell-off was paradoxically disconnected from domestic fundamentals. The Senado’s passage of the labor reform — a key Milei administration priority — should have been bullish, but markets treated it as a classic “sell the news” event. The reform had been priced in for weeks, and its passage coincided with a global tech rout that overwhelmed positive local catalysts. ADRs in New York closed mixed, tracking the broader Wall Street turbulence rather than Argentine-specific developments.

Argentina’s “paz cambiaria” remained firmly in place even as equities crumbled. The dollar mayorista edged up ARS 4.50 to ARS 1,399.50 on Friday after six consecutive declines that had pushed it below ARS 1,400 for the first time since November 17. Despite Friday’s bounce, the weekly decline was a substantial 2.3% (ARS 32.50), extending the year-to-date drop to nearly 4%. The official Banco Nación rate held at ARS 1,415 for the venta, now ARS 65 below where it started 2026.

The blue dollar firmed slightly to ARS 1,440 (+ARS 5 from Thursday), but the brecha remains historically compressed at just 1.8% over the official rate. The CCL closed at approximately ARS 1,466 and the MEP at ARS 1,426, both reflecting minimal divergence from official channels. The dollar has now lost ARS 90 from its 2026 opening level of ARS 1,530 (blue) — a remarkable demonstration of the carry trade’s gravitational pull.

The BCRA’s 30-session buying streak is the marquee story. Friday’s USD 42 million purchase brought the weekly total to USD 615 million — the largest since January 2025 — and year-to-date accumulation to USD 2,089 million across 30 rounds. Gross reserves rose to USD 45,158 million, though the picture is less rosy beneath the surface: private consultancy Eco Go estimates net reserves at -USD 9,856 million under IMF methodology as of February 10, reflecting the drag from short-term liabilities, FMI obligations, and the US swap arrangement. The band ceiling sits at ARS 1,585, leaving the mayorista 13.3% below — the widest gap since July 2025.

Wall Street closed Friday’s session essentially flat after the US CPI report showed headline inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year in January — below the 2.5% consensus and the lowest since May. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.05% gain to 6,836.17, the Dow added 0.10% to 49,501, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 22,547. Despite the benign print, it wasn’t enough to revive risk appetite after a brutal week of AI-driven tech selling. For the week, the S&P 500 shed 1.5%, the Dow fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%.

The DXY held steady at 96.88, consolidating after a sharp weekly decline exceeding 2% driven by the softer CPI, yen strength following Japan’s political developments, and hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing two Fed rate cuts for 2026, with the first expected in June. Gold hovered near $4,990 per ounce, supported by rate-cut expectations, continued PBoC purchases (15th consecutive month in January), and geopolitical tension from US-Iran nuclear talks. WTI crude settled at $62.89, down about 2% for the week, with Iran diplomacy developments and a massive 13.4-million-barrel US inventory build offsetting Middle East risk premia.

For Argentina, the collapsing DXY continues to be a powerful tailwind for the peso, compressing the brecha and enabling the BCRA’s aggressive reserve accumulation. But the global risk-off rotation out of tech and into defensives has disproportionately punished EM equities — particularly Argentina’s banking-heavy Merval, which now trades at a discount to its fundamental trajectory driven by the Milei reform agenda.

The Merval’s daily chart paints a decidedly bearish picture. The index has broken below its 55-day EMA and is testing the 200-day SMA zone near the 2,806,510-2,816,128 area. The Ichimoku cloud shows price trading at the lower edge of the cloud, with the lagging span threatening a bearish crossover. Volume during the correction has been heavy — Thursday’s collapse saw among the highest volumes of 2026 — while the recovery attempts have been tepid.

The RSI has fallen to 35.10 — approaching oversold territory but not yet there. The stochastic oscillator shows the %K at 50.05 and %D lower, suggesting diminishing downside momentum but no clear reversal signal. The MACD histogram remains deeply negative at -35,401, confirming the bearish trend. A decisive close below the 200-day SMA at 2,806,510 would open the door to a deeper correction toward the October 2025 support cluster around 2,421,478. Conversely, reclaiming the 20-day SMA at 2,965,249 would be the first technical signal of stabilization.

Monday February 16 is a US holiday (Presidents’ Day), which means no ADR trading and thin global volumes. In Buenos Aires, markets reopen normally, though activity may be subdued without the New York anchor. Key catalysts for the week ahead include the FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday), US Q4 GDP data (Thursday), and the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation gauge (Friday) — any dovish surprises could further weaken the DXY and support the peso. Domestically, the labor reform’s passage to Diputados and any progress on FMI negotiations regarding reserve accumulation targets remain in focus. Earnings season continues for Argentine corporates, with balance sheets reflecting the challenging Q4 environment of falling sales and rising costs.

Key Facts

— Argentina’s market is caught in a tug-of-war between a deteriorating equity picture and a strengthening currency story. The Merval has now lost 14.6% from its all-time high and sits precariously on the 200-day SMA — a level that has historically acted as the dividing line between correction and trend change. The riesgo país above 500 reinforces the caution. Yet the BCRA’s relentless reserve accumulation (USD 2,089 million in 30 sessions), the collapsing brecha cambiaria (1.8%), and the peso’s steady appreciation against a weakening dollar tell a fundamentally constructive story for the currency and sovereign debt.

— The disconnect is global, not local. The AI disruption trade that is unwinding tech valuations on Wall Street has disproportionately hit Argentine banking and tech-adjacent ADRs, while the domestic reform agenda (labor reform, reserve accumulation, disinflation) continues to advance. The key question this week is whether the Merval can hold the 200-day SMA and start rebuilding — or whether the global tech correction drags it into a deeper drawdown toward the 2,400,000 zone. For peso-denominated assets, the carry trade math remains compelling: a 1% monthly crawling peg against a BCRA buying USD 70 million per day is hard to fight.

Key Facts

— Deep Dive

— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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