LatAm Pre-Open — Friday, July 24, 2026

Latin American markets — Source: EODHD close, 2026-07-23.

01 The overnight tape in one read

Risk assets unravelled in sync overnight. A deepening rout in US technology stocks spilled into Asian and European hours.

Japan’s factory PMI missed expectations, feeding fears of softening global demand. Germany’s manufacturing PMI clung to expansion, but its services gauge stayed below the 50 mark.

European traders read it as a stagflationary whisper and sold equities. That cautious mood now threatens Latin America’s open.

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped, undermining energy-heavy indexes like Colombia’s COLCAP. The dollar index held firm, punishing most emerging-market currencies.

The Colombian peso offered a surprising pocket of strength. The mood on US futures is one of wary stabilisation, not conviction.

Traders are keeping powder dry before key data. A weak services print could reignite recession jitters instantly.

02 The board before the open

A live whole-market board is embedded elsewhere in this edition. The table here distils the regional damage.

The Merval in Buenos Aires was the weakest link, dropping 1.78 per cent. Argentine assets absorbed global risk aversion on thinner liquidity.

Mexico’s IPC suffered a chunky 1.54 per cent fall. It reflects high sensitivity to the US industrial cycle.

Brazil’s Ibovespa lost 0.46 per cent, less ground than the S&P 500. Its heavy commodity tilt offered some relative shelter, but the trend stayed firmly downward.

03 What the data shows — defensives dominate thin trade

The B3 trading floor turned deeply defensive on Thursday. Money crowded into the usual havens: Vale, Petrobras, and Itaú Unibanco.

Turnover in these three names alone swallowed a third of the market’s liquidity. VALE3 attracted nearly R$1,195 million in volume, the clearest sign of a flight to iron-ore anchored cash flows.

Smaller risk-on bets were punished swiftly. Healthcare operator HAPV3 cratered 8.1 per cent, while tech firm TOTS3 shed 6.4 per cent.

The message from the board is stark. Until global PMIs give an all-clear, speculative capital is staying on the sidelines.

04 Brazil and the currencies

The Brazilian real slipped, with USD/BRL settling at 5.0841. The move was orderly and tracked the broader dollar bid.

It masks a brewing domestic tension. The Copom has delivered three consecutive quarter-point cuts, bringing the Selic down from 15 per cent to 14.25 per cent.

Yet the government’s own inflation forecast for 2026 has jumped to 5.1 per cent. That sits well above the central bank’s 3 per cent target and its 4.5 per cent tolerance ceiling.

This policy divergence injects caution into the carry trade. Real-denominated bonds still offer high nominal yields, but a possible hawkish shift might actually support the currency.

In the wider region, the Mexican peso was a notable underperformer. USD/MXN jumped to 17.5214, hit cleanly by the global tech rout.

Argentina’s peso tracked the official crawling peg depreciation. The Chilean peso felt the sting of copper headwinds, dropping 1.10 per cent.

The Colombian peso was the solitary bright spot. It firmed slightly to 3,215, hinting that domestic institutional flows offered a temporary buffer.

05 The regional setup

The regional equity table tells a unified story of retreat. The depth of pain varied dramatically by economic profile.

The Merval’s 1.78 per cent plunge reflected Argentina’s double vulnerability. It is a high-beta index loaded with financials that suffer when global rate expectations harden.

Mexico’s IPC leaned heavily into the souring mood. As the manufacturing cycle slows, its 1.54 per cent drop was a clean read on US industrial anxiety.

What drove the index, FX and commodity moves

A fierce tech rout on Wall Street set the tone.

The S&P 500 fell 1.21 per cent to 7,408.

That single move rippled straight into Latin American assets.

Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.7.

It missed the prior month’s 54.8 and spooked growth-sensitive traders.

Brent crude sat at $72.81 a barrel.

Soft energy prices dragged on commodity-linked currencies and equities.

The dollar index firmed across the board.

USD/MXN jumped 0.75 per cent to 17.5214 on risk aversion.

USD/CLP bore the heaviest FX loss at 1.10 per cent.

Copper demand fears punished the Chilean peso directly.

USD/BRL rose a milder 0.58 per cent to 5.0841.

Brazil’s commodity heft cushioned the real slightly.

USD/COP defied the trend with a 0.37 per cent drop.

It firmed to 3,215, the only regional currency gain.

Domestic flows likely provided a temporary shield.

USD/ARS ticked up 0.43 per cent to 1,489.

The move tracked its managed crawling peg path.

Sector and single-name standouts

Defensive positioning ruled the B3 tape.

VALE3 drew R$1,195 million in turnover.

That was the session’s flagship liquidity magnet.

PETR4 followed with R$1,081 million in volume.

ITUB4 attracted R$960 million as a bank haven.

These three names hoovered up frightened capital.

Smaller risk bets suffered sharp punishment.

HAPV3 cratered 8.1 per cent on just R$62 million.

TOTS3 shed 6.4 per cent with R$168 million traded.

The tech and healthcare rout was swift and deep.

LAND3 stood alone with a 5.8 per cent gain.

Its R$18 million turnover marked it as a tiny outlier.

The read-through for Latin American investors is clear.

Global growth scares trigger an instant flight to size.

Iron ore, oil and big bank balance sheets offer shelter.

Mexico’s IPC fell 1.54 per cent on US industrial angst.

Chile’s IPSA lost 0.84 per cent as copper nerves bit.

Argentina’s Merval plunged 1.78 per cent, worst in class.

Thin liquidity magnified every global fear in Buenos Aires.

Colombia’s COLCAP slipped a contained 0.60 per cent.

Oil weakness hurt, but the peso gain softened the blow.

Near-term outlook and what to watch next

The global flash PMIs now hold the steering wheel.

A weak US services print would tighten conditions fast.

Recession jitters could deepen the regional sell-off.

Brazil’s rate path adds a tense domestic layer.

The Selic has been cut to 14.25 per cent.

Yet inflation forecasts hover stubbornly near 5.30 per cent.

That sits well above the 3 per cent target.

Carry traders are watching this contradiction closely.

A hawkish surprise could actually support the real.

USD/BRL near 5.0841 leaves little room for error.

Mexico’s peso at 17.5214 stays tied to US factory data.

Any further PMI slip would hit the IPC again.

Chile’s peso at 945.9 remains a pure copper play.

Watch for any stabilisation in Brent crude near $72.81.

Colombia’s peso at 3,215 needs follow-through to matter.

One day of strength does not break the trend.

Argentina’s Merval at 3,319,522 demands caution.

Thin liquidity means moves can overshoot quickly.

Turnover leaders VALE3, PETR4 and ITUB4 are your gauge.

If their volumes stay defensive, the mood remains fragile.

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