World Bank’s 2026 Growth Map For Latin America: A Region Moving, Not Sprinting

Key Points

• The World Bank sees the region growing 2.3% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, after 2.2% in 2025.
• The headline winners and losers are extreme: Guyana at 19.6%, while Bolivia (-1.1%) and Jamaica (-2.3%) shrink.
• The biggest external risk is trade disruption tied to new tariffs and the 2026 USMCA review, with Mexico most exposed.

Latin America’s economic story for 2026 is not a boom or a bust. It is something harder to notice from afar: a region that keeps moving forward, but at a pace that rarely changes lives quickly or reshapes global markets overnight.

In its January 13, 2026 update, the World Bank projects Latin America and the Caribbean will edge up from an estimated 2.2% growth in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, then 2.6% in 2027.

That sounds steady, yet it is also the definition of the region’s long-running challenge: moderate growth that struggles to create room for big public investments, rapid job gains, or dramatic income catch-up.

The “story behind the story” is what powered 2025. The Bank says demand ran stronger than expected: households and governments spent more than earlier forecasts suggested, investment was higher, and imports rose faster than projected.

Growth slows unevenly across region

Inflation generally stayed within central-bank targets. But the tradeoff shows up in the plumbing of the economy: larger current-account deficits and a sharper real exchange-rate appreciation than in other regions—helpful for cheaper imports, less helpful for export competitiveness.

The country table looks almost like two different continents. Guyana’s projected 19.6% expansion reflects an oil-driven surge that can lift regional averages without lifting regional reality. The Dominican Republic (4.5%) and Panama (4.1%) remain strong.

Argentina is projected to grow 4.0%, though the Bank flags that late-2025 political uncertainty could cool domestic demand. At the weak end, Bolivia (-1.1%) and Jamaica (-2.3%) contract, while Haiti rebounds to 2.0% after a 2.0% drop.

For major economies, the message is “slower, then slightly better”: Brazil at 2.0% in 2026 (2.3% in 2027), Mexico at 1.3% (1.8%), Colombia at 2.6% (2.8%), Chile at 2.2% (2.1%), and Peru at 2.5% in both years. The global significance is the risk map.

The Bank warns that tariff hikes or restrictive outcomes from the 2026 USMCA review could hit regional activity—especially Mexico—while softer commodity prices, financial volatility, high debt, weaker remittances, and climate shocks remain persistent threats.

The upside case is productivity, including from AI adoption, strongest where education levels are higher.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Machado Heads To The White House As Trump Bets On Regime Ins This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of global affairs and Latin American financial news.

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