World Bank Lowers Mexico’s GDP Growth Forecast to 1.5% for 2025

The World Bank recently adjusted its growth forecast for Mexico, marking the second consecutive reduction within three months. The institution revised its expectations for the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for this year.

It also lowered its estimates for 2024. Economists at the World Bank now project that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 1.5% in the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration.

This figure represents a decline from the 1.7% forecast made last autumn and falls short of the 2.1% anticipated in June. This new estimate surpasses the average market prediction of 1%, based on a recent Citi survey involving 32 analysts.

However, it remains below the growth rate that the Mexican government used to formulate its Federal Budget. If the World Bank’s projections hold true, Mexico will experience a fourth consecutive year of economic slowdown in 2025.

This situation contrasts sharply with the post-pandemic peak of 6% GDP growth recorded in 2021, when economic activities resumed. Within its Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank highlighted a contraction in manufacturing orders.

This occurred during the third quarter of last year. This decline contributed to a significant decrease in Mexico’s economic growth amid weakening exports.

For 2024, the World Bank anticipates a GDP growth of 1.7%, which is lower than its previous estimate of 2.2% made in June. Both projections fall below the Mexican government’s expectations.

The government foresees growth rates between 2% and 3% for both 2025 and 2026. Looking ahead to 2026, the World Bank predicts a slight recovery in Mexico’s economy, projecting a GDP growth of 1.6%.

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