Vale Tops Brazil Brokers’ June Picks as Defensive Mood Sets In

Brazil · Markets

Brazil’s leading brokerages have rallied behind miner Vale for June, a defensive turn after a punishing month for the country’s stock market.

Vale is the most recommended stock for June, according to a compilation of the model portfolios of the country’s 10 main brokerages and research houses. For the first time this year, the iron-ore producer appears in every portfolio surveyed, after a month in which it weathered a sharp sell-off on the Brazilian exchange. The consensus reflects a broader move toward predictability and cash generation rather than a bet on a market rebound.

Why Vale tops the brokers’ June picks

Vale was the only stock in the ranking to end May in positive territory, rising about 2% even as the benchmark fell more than 7%. Analysts credited the resilience of iron-ore prices, which held near $110 a tonne, and signs of a pickup in Chinese industrial activity. The easing of Middle East tensions, which weighed on oil-linked names such as Petrobras, had the opposite effect on the miner by reducing global risk and supporting appetite for metals. One major bank projected iron ore above $100 a tonne through the year, citing constrained supply and resilient demand from China, India and Southeast Asia, and another house argued the stock’s valuation remained discounted with room to rise as commodity prices recover.

A defensive shift after a brutal May

The reshuffle came after the Ibovespa fell 7.22% in May, its weakest month since February 2023, on heavy foreign outflows, election-related noise and reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts. In that environment, the houses leaned toward names offering visible earnings, cash flow and discounted valuations after the correction. Bank Itau also returned to one major portfolio in June, replacing digital lender Nubank, and lenders broadly featured as defensive anchors. The mood, in short, was caution rather than conviction.

The B3’s shifting hierarchy

The defensive tilt plays out against a changing pecking order at the top of the market. Itau began 2026 as the most valuable listed company on the B3, overtaking Petrobras after the oil major shed value through 2025, while investment bank BTG Pactual climbed from seventh to third among listed firms and Vale held among the largest names. The shift underscored the strength of the private financial sector in a year of greater investor selectivity, with the banks adding heavily to their market value while the state-linked oil producer gave ground. For now, the June consensus on Vale signals that, with macro uncertainty high, Brazil’s market strategists are prioritizing safety and commodity exposure over riskier bets, a stance that could persist until clearer signals emerge on rates and the political calendar.

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