Uruguay bets Chilean government will be neutral and not isolate it in the region

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Venezuela “is an experience that has rather failed and the main demonstration is the six million Venezuelans in diaspora“. These were the words of the president-elect of Chile, Gabriel Boric, in an interview with BBC Mundo published on Friday 21. To these words critical of the Chavista regime, he also added other similar words about Nicaragua. The Uruguayan government well-received these statements.

Boric will take office as President of Chile on March 11, one month after his 36th birthday. Uruguay will be represented at that ceremony at least by its foreign minister, Francisco Bustillo, although the development of that day will depend on how the Covid-19 pandemic evolves.

Diplomatic sources said it is expected that the government of the young leader, who emerged a decade ago from the student mobilizations in his country and is located on the left of the political spectrum, will not be on the opposite side of the political spectrum to that of Luis Lacalle Pou in the region.

The Uruguayan president, who a few days ago had a first telephone contact with his future colleague, has had good relations with the outgoing president of Chile, Sebastián Piñera.

Winner in the December ballot against the far-right José Antonio Kast, Boric is part of a new political turn of those periodically experienced in the region, which has already seen the victories of Luis Arce in Bolivia (2020) and Pedro Castillo in Peru (2021). Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia could join this trend this year. In fact, in the note mentioned above with the BBC, Boric said he expected to work “side by side” with Arce and mentioned the possibility of forming “an interesting axis” with Petro and Lula.

This approach led the current Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, to announce that he would not attend Boric’s inauguration. On the other hand, in Torre Ejecutiva, there is a possibility that Lacalle Pou will attend, although he has not been invited yet.

“The winds are shifting to the left. Everything indicates that Brazil will change, and in Argentina, there are still two years left of [Alberto] Fernández’s term. An ally would be lost if a government very opposed to Lacalle Pou’s were to take office in Chile. It is good for the Uruguayan government that there is someone who, if not an ally, at least maintains neutrality. That is: at the meeting of a regional organization, he should not stop to greet Nicolás Maduro and leave Uruguay and Ecuador alone in the corner of the room. In that sense, what he said about Venezuela was very well considered”, summarized a diplomatic source.

The fact that Boric has appointed Antonia Urrejola as his future Foreign Minister is a sign that brings him closer to the center-left than to the more radical left. Urrejola was a member of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), which she eventually chaired. She was also an advisor to the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS) when it was chaired by her compatriot José Miguel Insulza. As such, she has been very critical of the governments of Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba.

STRATEGIC LINKS

The movements following the change of government also put at stake the commercial ties and strategic alliance between Uruguay and Chile. According to analysts of the trans-Andean country, these should not be affected.

Uruguay and Chile signed in October 2016 a Free Trade Agreement that came into force in December 2018 after parliamentary approval. That meant a triumph for the stance of then-President Tabaré Vázquez, who found resistances for agreements of this type within his own party, the Frente Amplio.

With a population of 19 million people, Chile represents a significant market. According to data from Uruguay XXI, in 2021, products were imported from that country for just under US$96 million and exported to that destination for about US$134 million. In amount, it was the tenth destination for Uruguayan products and ranked 14th in the origins of purchases.

In addition to trade, the relationship between the two countries is seen as strategic, as they are considered institutionally solid democratic islands in a convulsed subcontinent. Since its return to democracy in 1990, Chile has taken a “state” approach to its international relations, independent of the government in power, explained political scientist Marco Moreno, director of the School of Government and Communications at the country’s Central University (UCEN).

“The relationship with Uruguay has always tried to be fluid, as a strategic partner in the Atlantic, to counteract the role played by Argentina in the southern hemisphere. We have always had differences with bordering countries Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia. Uruguay is also seen as a role model for its quality of life and its management of social policies. Its democratic sustainability and the stability of its institutions are very much appreciated here; it is a mirror. It is different from Argentina, where there are no stable political parties, and there is a lot of caudillismo”, the analyst developed.

Before the first round of November 21, 2021, Boric dedicated a praiseworthy tweet to former Uruguayan President José Mujica. In this, he affirmed that the leader of the Frente Amplista is an inspiration “to work with humility, always for and by the people” and an “example in Latin American politics”. Mujica, in turn, appeared in a spot encouraging Chileans to vote for Boric, who was the founder of the Chilean Frente Amplio, in 2017, part of the Apruebo Dignidad coalition that brought him to power.

With information from Búsqueda