Panama’s Debt Paradox: Rising Borrowing, Falling Delinquencies

According to recent financial data from the Ministry of Economy and Finance and APC Experian, Panama faces complex economic dynamics with total debt reaching unprecedented levels.

National government debt stands at $53.7 billion as of January 2025, remaining stable from the previous month but near the all-time high of $53.9 billion recorded in November 2024.

Household debt continues its upward trajectory, hitting $32.9 billion in December 2024. This figure represents an all-time high since records began in 2005, when household debt totaled just $6.4 billion.

The domestic credit market expanded by 5.8% year-over-year in October 2024, reaching $64.1 billion. Credit card usage grows significantly across Panama with 836,895 cards now in circulation.

This marks an increase of 67,700 cards compared to the previous year. Interestingly, the average balance per card dropped slightly from $3,504 to $3,423, suggesting more cautious consumer spending habits.

Panama’s Credit Market Trends and Economic Outlook

The credit market shows encouraging trends despite the debt increase. Credit card delinquency rates decreased by 22.7% year-over-year, dropping from 12% to 9.2%.

This improvement contrasts with global patterns, particularly the United States, where delinquency rates reached 13-year highs. Panama’s consumer lending market displays strong concentration patterns.

Five major financial institutions control 62.6% of the total consumer credit portfolio. BAC International Bank and Banco General dominate the credit card segment with market shares of 31.3% and 26.9% respectively.

Economic forecasts for Panama show varied outlooks. The Ministry of Economy projects 4% real GDP growth for 2025, while other institutions offer estimates ranging from 2% to 5.2%. JP Morgan provides the most optimistic projection at 5.2%, while the World Bank anticipates stable growth of 3%.

Key challenges await Panama’s economic managers in 2025. The government must address Social Security Fund reforms, resolve issues surrounding the Cobre Panama mine, and manage fiscal consolidation. These factors will significantly influence economic outcomes.

Panama’s household debt now accounts for 38.3% of GDP, highlighting the delicate balance between economic growth and financial stability. The country’s projected moderate growth offers hope for managing these challenges while maintaining economic momentum.