Opinion: Speculating on Bolsonaro’s “indications” of election fraud in 2018

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Opinion) On Thursday, July 29, President Bolsonaro, speaking to supporters in front of the Planalto Palace, said he would supply proof of his oft-repeated claims that Brazil’s electronic voting system has led to frauds.

On Friday, however, Bolsonaro admitted he did not have any proof – he has only “indications” of fraud.

Bolsonaro adamantly maintains that in 2018 he was a victim of electoral fraud. He says he received a majority (50%+1) of all valid votes in the first round, the constitutional prerequisite for victory without having to contest a second runoff election.

The official tally, however, gave Bolsonaro only 46% of the valid votes, forcing him to contest the runoff election – which he won by a wide margin – 55% to 45% – over PT’s Fernando Haddad.

This invites speculation: Why does Bolsonaro allege there was fraud?  Did he just invent it, or did someone actually tell him there was fraud? If so, why does he believe this claim?

We will submit some possible answers to these questions below, but first a caveat – just as Bolsonaro admits it is impossible for him to prove or disprove his claims of fraud, we admit it is impossible for us to prove or disprove our speculations.

Preliminarily, we reject the idea that Bolsonaro made up his 2018 election claim out of whole cloth – his idol Donald Trump was fond of “alternative facts”, but Bolsonaro does not generally share this inclination.

We likewise disregard speculation that Bolsonaro is using these claims as part of a planned “auto coup” whereby he will suspend the courts and congress and assume full powers.

Instead, we will first examine who might have told Bolsonaro that he won in the first round. The question then becomes: Which Bolsonaro support groups might have had some credible basis for suspecting the existence of fraud?

There are, from our viewpoint, only two such groups: (1) the highly politicized “evangelical” base present throughout Brazil; and (2) the criminal “militias” that oppress vast swaths of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and other cities.

(1) EVANGELICALS

During the 2018 election campaign hundreds, perhaps thousands, of evangelical pastors and laymen worked unceasingly to convince their flocks, through prayer, preaching, and pastoral work, to vote for Bolsonaro.

Zealous evangelicals assume most of their flocks will heed their words on religious matters, and spread that word to their family and friends. Bolsonaro, for them, was the only candidate able to defend true religion and thus thwart atheism and godless communism.

These true believers, who interact mostly with each other, could reasonably assume that Bolsonaro won in the first round. After all, everyone they know had said they would vote for him, and evangelicals constitute a whopping 1/3 of Brazil’s population.

Having reassured each other that they all did their part, they could not believe that most of their flock failed to close ranks around Bolsonaro’s candidacy. Only “fraud” could possibly explain, for them, what would otherwise amount to a breach of faith.

(2) MILITIAS

We now consider a second possibility – the illegal militias. Made up of off-duty or former law enforcement agents – federal, civil, and state police, firefighters, prison guards – these miscreants control not just property, but the day-to-day lives of the people who live in communities under their thumbs.

In addition to extorting protection money from local merchants, the militia now control housing, electricity, cooking gas, as well as TV and internet access in their communities.

Importantly, the militia also control another form of access – that of candidates for political office. Only candidates they approve can campaign in the areas they control – door-to-door visits, sound trucks, posters, banners, rallies – nothing is permitted if you are not in the militia’s good graces

It is no secret that Bolsonaro and his family have long had ties to the militia in Rio de Janeiro. Candidates named Bolsonaro have long been top vote-getters in local and state elections. There are those who say this is no coincidence.

Let us speculate that in 2018 the militias in Rio talked to the militias in São Paulo and other cities, and all agreed to support Bolsonaro. Far more ruthless than evangelicals, the militias “persuade” the people they control to vote massively for Bolsonaro in 2018, as they are rumored to have done in many prior elections.

Like the evangelicals, the militias could very well have been surprised that Bolsonaro did not win in the first round. Like the evangelicals, their best explanation would be fraud.

(3) INDICATIONS EXPLAINED

How did Bolsonaro become convinced about what the evangelicals and militias thought they knew?

Demographics can give us an explanation – one that does not require any direct conversations between Bolsonaro and his evangelical and militia supporters.

Political party operatives, down at the local ward level, know from official data how many votes Bolsonaro got in their territory. They can also obtain data showing the percentage of evangelicals among those who live in that territory, and how much militia control there is over that territory.

Combining those data could mean that, in many precincts – particularly in Brazil’s largest cities – the combination of likely evangelical- and militia-influenced votes for Bolsonaro in the first 2018 election round should have exceeded 50%.

If Bolsonaro, shown those data, had extrapolated them nationwide, they could well have been sufficiently convincing to him to became the principal “indications” he would have won in the first round if there was no election fraud.

But, as said early on in this piece, there is no way to prove or disprove these speculations. Only Bolsonaro himself knows the truth.