Oil Prices Gap Higher After OPEC+ Production Decision Provides Market Relief

Trading data from TradingView shows oil markets opened Monday with significant weekend gaps following OPEC+ production announcements.

Brent crude trades at $63.00, up marginally at 0.03%, while WTI crude sits at $60.51, down 0.11% from early session highs. The weekend movements tell a compelling story of market psychology.

WTI jumped from Friday’s close of $58.75 to current levels, creating a substantial gap higher of approximately $1.76 per barrel. Brent showed a more modest gap from $62.34 to $63.00, representing a $0.66 increase.

These gaps occurred despite both benchmarks posting weekly losses exceeding 1% in the previous session. OPEC+ members agreed Saturday to increase crude production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month of identical output hikes.

The eight participating countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. This measured approach provided relief to markets that had feared larger production increases.

The technical picture reveals important developments on the daily charts. Brent crude breached resistance at its 50-period exponential moving average, suggesting attempts to overcome previous negative pressures.

The RSI indicator shows positive signals after entering oversold territory, supporting new buying processes. WTI trades within a familiar range of $56.50 to $63.50 established since early April, with the $60.00 level proving resilient since May 9th.

Supply fundamentals shifted favorably for prices despite production increases. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week ending May 23, contradicting analyst expectations for a 118,000 barrel increase.

Gasoline stocks dropped 2.4 million barrels while distillate inventories fell 724,000 barrels, indicating strong domestic demand. The active U.S. oil rig count declined for the fifth consecutive week to 461, reaching the lowest level since November 2021.

Geopolitical tensions provided additional support over the weekend. Ukraine struck air bases deep inside Russia while Iran faced criticism over growing uranium stockpile reports. These developments added risk premiums to crude prices amid ongoing trade policy uncertainties.

Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $62 per barrel for Brent by December 2025, while J.P. Morgan projects $66 per barrel for the full year.

The International Energy Agency revised its 2025 demand growth forecast to 741,000 barrels per day, up 20,000 from previous estimates. Monday’s consolidation near gap-higher opening levels suggests markets are digesting the weekend catalysts.

Both contracts face key technical levels, with Brent testing the $63-65 range and WTI defending the psychological $60 threshold. The measured OPEC+ approach appears to have prevented deeper selloffs while maintaining supply discipline.

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