Key Facts
- Guyana raised its Stabroek take to 39.8% with the state share including a 2% royalty after the Exxon-led consortium recovered roughly US$55 billion in development costs.
- YPF is monetising mature assets for shale selling its 50% Profertil stake to Adecoagro for US$635 million and its Manantiales Behr fields to PECOM for US$410 million, freeing cash for Vaca Muerta.
- Vaca Muerta shale oil hit a record with YPF reporting 213,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, up 47% from a year earlier, as it expands its Vaca Muerta drilling fleet this year.
- The USO proxy for WTI settled at US$127.35 a gain of 0.95% on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, mirroring a late recovery in near-dated WTI futures.
- Petrobras shares slipped despite deepwater focus with the New York-traded shares closing at US$17.76, down 0.50%, as investors weighed pre-salt spending against softer late-year crude pricing signals.
- Argentina’s US$51-billion LNG plan advanced with YPF, Eni and XRG submitting the Argentina LNG project for approval under the RIGI incentive regime, targeting Vaca Muerta gas exports.
Today’s Focus
Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after trading lower early in the session. The WTI-tracking USO closed at US$127.35, up 0.95%.
The late recovery followed signs that shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz was easing slightly. The United States said mine-clearing in the strait was complete, and Iran resumed talks with Oman over Gulf shipping, even though the waterway remains effectively closed to normal traffic.
Latin America’s investment story kept moving independently. Guyana lifted its Stabroek share to 39.8% after a US$55-billion cost recovery, and Argentina’s YPF sold non-core assets worth over US$1 billion to fund Vaca Muerta shale growth.
What matters today. The WTI rebound matters less than Latin America’s structural shift toward Guyana, Argentine shale and Brazilian pre-salt supply growth.
01 The session in one read
Oil recovered into Wednesday’s settlement after early pressure, when front-month WTI was quoted around US$80.50 a barrel before buyers stepped back in.
By the close, the ETF that tracks WTI futures, USO, stood at US$127.35, a gain of 0.95%. Near-dated contracts regained ground as Gulf supply fears cooled slightly.
The clearest signal is divergence: YPF’s US$50.27 close, up 0.52%, rewarded its asset sales and record shale output, while Ecopetrol fell 1.61% to US$16.52 and Petrobras slipped 0.50% as investors stayed cautious on state-heavy balance sheets. Pemex remains the laggard in that group, still burdened by high debt and falling conventional output. The variable to watch is whether YPF can sustain its drilling ramp toward the targeted 250,000 barrels per day shale exit rate by December without new financing friction.
02 The board
The USO proxy for WTI settled at US$127.35, up 0.95%, while Latin American energy names split along investment lines. YPF rose 0.52% to US$50.27, the only producer on our board to advance with the crude proxy.
Petrobras slipped 0.50% to US$17.76, and Colombia’s Ecopetrol fell hardest, down 1.61% to US$16.52. Investors favoured companies with clearer shale or deepwater growth over state-heavy producers.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$127.35 | +0.95% |
| Petrobras | US$17.76 | -0.50% |
| Ecopetrol | US$16.52 | -1.61% |
| YPF | US$50.27 | +0.52% |
Source: RT close, 2026-08-26. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,586.26 | +0.01% | +21.85% | 174,576.80 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,369.18 | -0.71% | — | 11,450.75 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 66,644.91 | +0.53% | +12.17% | 66,293.07 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,024,971 | +0.53% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,504.68 | -0.15% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,449.35 | +0.30% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
The early drop and late recovery both tracked news around the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was struck off Oman on Tuesday, and tracking data show the strait is still effectively closed, with only a handful of transits against a normal pace of about 85 vessels a day.
Sentiment improved after the United States said mine-clearing in the strait was complete and Iran resumed talks with Oman over Gulf shipping. Traders read the diplomatic movement as a step toward reopening, not a solution.
US inventory data barely moved the market. Commercial crude stocks rose by about 100,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels in the week ending August 21, leaving traders focused on export channels.
04 The Latin American read
Guyana’s boom advanced on paper. The government said the state’s share of Stabroek output has climbed to 39.8%, including a 2% royalty, after the consortium recovered about US$55 billion in development costs.
The consortium — ExxonMobil with 45%, Chevron with 30% after its Hess takeover and CNOOC with 25% — approved the US$12.7-billion Whiptail project in April 2024. The sixth Stabroek development is designed to add 250,000 barrels per day and lift block capacity to roughly 1.3 million barrels per day by end-2027.
In Brazil, Petrobras kept its focus on pre-salt deepwater expansion, the core of the country’s export growth strategy, even as its shares lagged the session’s oil gain. Mexico’s Pemex stayed under pressure from high debt and declining conventional output.
05 The names to watch
YPF is the most active reallocator of capital in the region. It sold its 50% Profertil stake to Adecoagro for US$635 million in December 2025 and its Manantiales Behr conventional fields to PECOM for US$410 million plus a possible US$40-million earn-out in February 2026, raising roughly US$1 billion for shale.
The company is expanding its Vaca Muerta drilling fleet this year, targeting a 250,000 barrels per day shale-oil exit rate by December. Second-quarter shale output reached a record 213,000 barrels per day, up 47% from a year earlier.
YPF reported net profit of US$1.21 billion in the second quarter of 2026, its second-highest quarterly profit on record. It has also joined Eni and XRG in submitting the US$51-billion Argentina LNG project to the RIGI incentive regime on August 13, targeting Vaca Muerta gas exports.
06 The outlook
A December 2026 WTI contract traded below US$80 a barrel, under the front-month level, suggesting traders still expect slightly softer prices later in the year.
For Latin America, the relevant question is execution: whether YPF sustains its shale ramp, whether Guyana hits its 2027 capacity target, and whether Petrobras converts pre-salt spending into export growth without alarming minority investors.
07 What to watch
- Strait of Hormuz logistics: Any setback in the Iran-Oman talks or further tanker incidents would reverse the easing tone and lift crude proxies such as USO.
- YPF rig count: Growth in the drilling fleet and movement toward the 250,000 barrels per day December exit rate will test whether asset sales are translating into faster shale output.
- Stabroek capacity: Whiptail execution and ExxonMobil’s drilling pace will determine whether Guyana reaches roughly 1.3 million barrels per day by end-2027 and strengthens its 39.8% state share.
- Petrobras pre-salt capex: Investor reaction to planned deepwater spending will decide whether the New York shares can recover from their US$17.76 close as oil prices hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did USO rise on Wednesday, August 26, 2026?
USO, the ETF tracking near-dated WTI futures, closed 0.95% higher at US$127.35 as crude recovered late in the session on signs of easing risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
How is Guyana’s oil boom changing regional supply?
Guyana raised its Stabroek production take to 39.8%, including royalty, and the approved US$12.7-billion Whiptail project is set to lift block capacity to about 1.3 million barrels per day by end-2027.
What is YPF doing in Vaca Muerta?
YPF is selling mature assets and a fertiliser stake to raise roughly US$1 billion, while expanding its Vaca Muerta drilling fleet and targeting a 250,000 barrels per day shale-oil exit rate in December.
Why did Latin American producers not all rise with oil?
YPF gained 0.52% to US$50.27 on its shale pivot, but Petrobras fell 0.50% and Ecopetrol dropped 1.61% as investors stayed cautious on state-heavy balance sheets and softer late-year crude expectations.
Market data: EODHD
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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