Oil Rebounds as Trump Rejects Iran Offer After Friday Slide Hit Petrobras
Key Facts
- USO fell 3.11% to US$148.33 on Friday, September 25, 2026, as WTI crude retreated on US-Iran truce hopes.
- WTI crude settled down 2.33% at US$92.41 a barrel, while Brent lost 2.14% to US$104.32.
- Hopes for a US-Iran truce and a possible diplomatic reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove the global retreat.
- Petrobras shares fell 2.26% to US$20.37 as Brazil’s pre-salt strength was outweighed by the international sell-off.
- Argentina’s YPF dropped 2.82% to US$52.10, pulling Vaca Muerta-linked equity into the red.
- Oil prices rebounded early on Monday, with WTI above US$94, after President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Today’s Focus
Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, September 25, 2026, as traders priced in the prospect of a US-Iran truce. The exchange-traded fund tracking WTI crude, USO, closed at US$148.33, down 3.11%.
Behind the move was rising hope for a diplomatic arrangement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil-shipping route. Over the weekend that hope faded: President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait, and WTI traded above US$94 early on Monday, up about 2%.
Latin American oil-linked shares followed crude lower. Petrobras closed at US$20.37, down 2.26%, while Argentina’s YPF fell 2.82% to US$52.10.
Supply risks from Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia kept Friday’s decline from deepening.
What matters today. Friday’s slide is already being unwound as US-Iran talks stall, and Latin American oil equities such as Petrobras and YPF are likely to move with that repricing.
01 The session in one read
Oil began Friday with a clear downward tilt after fresh reporting pointed to a possible US-Iran truce, and the selling accelerated through the day. WTI crude settled at US$92.41 a barrel, down 2.33%, while Brent closed at US$104.32, down 2.14%.
The exchange-traded fund that tracks WTI, USO, ended the session at US$148.33, down 3.11%. That was the sharpest daily fall for the fund in recent sessions, and it dragged every major Latin American oil-linked share lower except Ecopetrol.
Friday’s fall was driven by a diplomatic catalyst rather than a demand shock, and it began to reverse as soon as the talks stalled: oil prices rose early on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The risk premium is being priced headline by headline.
02 The board
USO finished at US$148.33, down 3.11%, while Petrobras fell 2.26% to US$20.37. Argentina’s YPF slid 2.82% to US$52.10.
Colombia’s Ecopetrol bucked the trend, rising 1.28% to US$16.58. That divergence was mostly a catch-up move after Ecopetrol lagged earlier in the week.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$148.33 | -3.11% |
| Petrobras | US$20.37 | -2.26% |
| Ecopetrol | US$16.58 | +1.28% |
| YPF | US$52.10 | -2.82% |
Source: NYSE Arca / NYSE close, 2026-09-25. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,476.86 | -0.27% | +21.85% | 183,965.91 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,256.80 | -0.38% | — | 11,299.82 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 64,992.23 | +1.13% | +12.17% | 64,264.16 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,893,751 | -1.57% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,584.72 | -0.95% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,934.37 | +1.27% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
The main driver was a sharp repricing of Middle East risk. Increased hopes for a US-Iran truce, and talk of an arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reduced the premium traders had been paying for possible supply disruption.
Washington’s diesel debate also stayed in the background. After a mid-week report that the White House was weighing a ban on diesel exports, officials denied preparing one, and on Thursday the energy secretary was reported to be seeking refiners’ help on measures short of a ban.
Not everything pointed lower. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia continued through the week, keeping a floor under prices by reminding traders that supply routes remain vulnerable.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil’s Petrobras fell despite the company’s pre-salt deep-water assets continuing to perform. New York-listed shares closed at US$20.37, down 2.26%, because the global crude price matters more to the equity story than any single technical milestone.
Argentina’s YPF dropped 2.82% to US$52.10. The company’s valuation is tightly linked to Vaca Muerta, and when international crude falls, the implied value of that shale formation falls with it.
Guyana’s offshore boom continued to add Atlantic Basin barrels, with output reported above 900,000 barrels a day in mid-September. That supply growth is one reason the broader region cannot escape global pricing trends.
Mexico’s Pemex offered no fresh catalyst on the day. In Venezuela, the US-backed arrangement assigning 17 oil fields to North American Blue Energy Partners, in which the Pentagon is set to hold a 35% stake, remained in focus as a marker of future production and sanctions risk.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras remains the cleanest large-cap proxy for Brazilian pre-salt economics. When Brent falls, Petrobras follows.
YPF is the purest Vaca Muerta play for foreign investors, but that also means it carries more crude-price sensitivity than diversified producers.
Ecopetrol is now the outlier. Its 1.28% rise to US$16.58 suggests investors treated it as a relative value play after two days of losses; no Colombia-specific catalyst was reported.
06 The outlook
The next leg of oil prices depends largely on whether US-Iran talks resume. President Trump said he expects talks to restart this week after rejecting Tehran’s Hormuz proposal; a deal that reopened the strait would strip out much of the risk premium, while a prolonged stalemate would extend Monday’s rebound.
Watch Washington’s diesel policy too. The White House has denied preparing an export ban, but softer curbs on fuel exports could still weigh on US refinery demand for crude.
07 What to watch
- US-Iran talks: A resumption this week, or a formal deal on Hormuz, would deflate the geopolitical premium in WTI and Brent; a continued stalemate would support prices.
- US diesel export measures: Any curbs short of a ban could still trim refinery demand for crude.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities: Continued strikes would keep supply-disruption risk alive and limit downside.
- Venezuela field assignments under US-backed deals: The speed of operator mobilization will shape whether the 17 reassigned fields add meaningful barrels.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on Friday?
Rising hopes for a US-Iran truce and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pulled the geopolitical risk premium out of the market.
What does USO tell me?
USO is the exchange-traded fund tracking WTI crude. It closed at US$148.33, down 3.11%, showing the size of the crude sell-off.
Did all Latin American oil shares fall?
No. Petrobras fell 2.26% and YPF fell 2.82%, but Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose 1.28% to US$16.58.
Why is Guyana important in this story?
Guyana’s output was reported above 900,000 barrels a day in mid-September, making it a growing source of non-OPEC supply in the Atlantic Basin.
Market data: NYMEX, ICE, NYSE closing prices.
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