OECD Interim Outlook Raises Mexico to 1.5% Growth, Cuts Argentina to 2.6%

LATIN AMERICA · ECONOMY

Latin America’s three largest members of the Group of 20 moved in three different directions in the OECD’s new report.

The OECD interim outlook, published on 23 September 2026, raised Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% from 0.8% in June. It cut Argentina to 2.6% for 2026 and to 3.0% for 2027.

What the OECD interim outlook says about Latin America

Mexico gets the region’s biggest upgrade. The OECD now expects 1.5% growth in 2026, against the 0.8% it forecast in June.

For 2027 it keeps Mexico at 1.8%, the same as in June. It credits strong tech-related production and the delayed effect of earlier rate cuts.

Argentina moves the other way. Its 2026 forecast falls to 2.6% from 2.8%, and 2027 falls to 3.0% from 3.5%.

Brazil is split between the two years. The 2026 figure rises to 2.0% from 1.6%, while 2027 slips to 1.9% from 2.1%.

Every June number here comes from the OECD’s own June 2026 Economic Outlook. The new report also lists each change in percentage points.

The report runs to 25 pages and is titled Weathering Successive Shocks. It uses data available up to 16 September 2026.

The OECD expects easier monetary policy to support growth in Brazil over the forecast period. It makes the same point about Türkiye.

The global numbers behind the revisions

Global growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. In June the OECD had 2.8% and 3.1%.

World output grew 3.4% in 2025, so both years mark a slowdown. The OECD says investment linked to artificial intelligence has cushioned the energy shock.

Among the big economies, the United States is seen at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The euro area sits at 1.0% in both years.

China is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. Korea gets the largest upgrade of any G20 member, to 3.7%.

Headline inflation across the G20 is seen rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026. It then eases to 3.6% in 2027, half a point above the June view.

Long-term government bond yields are at their highest in 15 years or more in many countries. The OECD calls that an increasingly important risk.

What the OECD warns about energy markets

The report says there is “considerable uncertainty around this outlook, particularly about possible developments in energy markets”. It adds that oil and gas prices depend on how long supply disruptions last.

The word Iran does not appear in the report. The OECD writes instead about the Middle East conflict, the Gulf economies and the Strait of Hormuz.

The forecasts assume Brent crude peaks near US$105 a barrel in late 2026. Prices then average about US$85 a barrel in 2027.

In a darker scenario, oil is 24% and gas 31% above that path in 2027. That would cut global growth by 0.7 percentage points.

Refining bottlenecks are pushing pump prices up on top of crude. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at very low levels.

A faster return to normal in energy markets would ease inflation and support activity. Renewed or longer disruption would do the opposite.

Why this matters if you live in or invest in Latin America

Prices matter more than the headline growth number for most households. The OECD sees Mexican inflation at 4.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

Brazilian inflation is seen at 5.1% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Argentine inflation is projected at 30.8% and then 20.5%.

Borrowing costs are the second channel. Brazil has cut its policy rate by over one percentage point since March, and the OECD expects further cuts.

Trade is the third channel. The average US tariff rate on imports rose from 9.6% in June to 10.9% by mid-September, with Brazil among the hardest hit.

Mexico is in the group facing an extra 12.5 percentage points on a wide range of US-bound goods. Brazil faces a further 25% on selected goods.

Weather is the fourth channel. The OECD puts the chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026 at 95%.

It says such an event could reduce farm output in the most exposed economies in Latin America. Food prices would rise with it.

Mexican price caps and subsidies are holding some energy costs down, the OECD notes. It expects that support to continue in the near term.

What is not known

The interim report covers the world and the G20 countries only. It gives no updated figures for Chile, Colombia, Peru or Uruguay.

Brazil’s finance ministry cut its own 2026 forecast to 2.0% on Tuesday 22 September. That came a day before the OECD report, not in reply to it.

The ministry also trimmed its 2027 figure to 2.3% from 2.5%. Its 2026 cut was from 2.3%, set in July.

Everything still turns on when the Middle East conflict ends. The OECD says a credible near-term resolution would push energy prices below its baseline.

For now the region’s three big economies are simply on different tracks. The energy price path will decide how far apart they end up.

More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this the same as the full OECD Economic Outlook?

No. The OECD interim outlook is a shorter update on the world economy and the G20 countries.

Which Latin American country got the biggest upgrade?

Mexico. Its 2026 forecast rose by 0.7 percentage points, to 1.5% from 0.8%.

Did the OECD blame Iran for the energy shock?

It does not name Iran. It refers to the conflict in the Middle East and to disruption in the Gulf economies.

Sources: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026: Weathering Successive Shocks and OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1, OECD Publishing, Paris; Brazil’s Finance Ministry via Reuters; Buenos Aires Times.