Global Economy Briefing — September 23, 2026
Global economy: Fed hawkishness keeps yields and the dollar firm as September flash PMIs test growth. Brazil's 13.75% Selic still cushions the real.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Nasdaq sets a record as the Dow slips At the close on Tuesday 22 September 2026 the S&P 500 stood at 7,764.64, lower by 0.06 points. The Dow fell 0.36% to 51,863.69. The Nasdaq rose 0.45% to a record 27,244.28.
- Fed rate rise reaches Latin America The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 16 September 2026. The dollar index firmed 0.14% to 100.571. A stronger dollar raises funding costs across emerging markets.
- PMIs become the next growth test German and US September flash PMIs land on Wednesday 23 September 2026. Japan’s are held over to Thursday by a public holiday. Together they test whether growth is cooling without breaking.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims | 201k forecast | 196k | Labour still firm |
| Building permits | 1.394m (August) | 1.433m | Cooling supply |
| New home sales | 0.62m forecast | 0.607m | Housing steady |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany Ifo business climate | 89 forecast | 88.8 | Sentiment fragile |
| Germany Ifo expectations | 89.3 forecast | 89.1 | Mild uptick |
| Germany new car sales | Due | 23.8% | Auto demand watch |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan manufacturing PMI | 55 forecast | 54.9 | Factory resilience |
| Japan services PMI | 52.7 forecast | 52.5 | Slow expansion |
| Mexico interest rate decision | 6.50% expected | 6.50% | Hold likely |
| Brazil FGV consumer confidence | 86 forecast | 84.7 | Rebound expected |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,764.64 | -0.06 pts |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 187,423 | +0.44% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1029 | -0.11% |
Global economy — Trade date: Tuesday 22 September 2026. Sources: B3, Nasdaq, NYSE and the US Treasury.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Wednesday, September 23, 2026
| Time (UTC) | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | JP | Autumnal Equinox Day | — | — |
| 00:00 | US | UN General Assembly | — | — |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.3 |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.8 | 51.8 |
| 07:30 | DE | S&P Global Services PMI | 50 | 49.7 |
| 09:30 | DE | 15-Year Bund Auction | — | 3.5 |
| 09:30 | DE | 30-Year Bund Auction | — | 3.9 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.1 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Refinance Index | — | 627.1 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Market Index | — | 230.8 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | — | 6.97 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Purchase Index | — | 156.2 |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | 53.9 |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56 | 56.5 |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 55.2 | 56 |
| 14:05 | US | Fed Barr Speech | — | — |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | — | 0.794 |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | — | -1.18 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 The record rally meets a harder ceiling
US equities traded with little conviction. The 10-year Treasury par yield held at 4.96%, unchanged from Monday, after 5.01% on Friday 18 September 2026.
The VIX fell 4.44% to 14.21. That signals limited near-term fear, though the calm depends on rates not pushing higher.
The dollar index firmed 0.14% to 100.571, a second straight daily gain. Hawkish Fed commentary did most of the work.
For Latin America the combination is mixed. Firm US yields favour the dollar, while Brazil’s high carry still cushions the real.
02 The Fed leaves emerging markets counting the cost
The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point increase keeps global liquidity tight. That is a less forgiving backdrop for emerging markets.
Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic by 25 basis points to 13.75% on Wednesday 16 September 2026. It was the fifth consecutive cut from a 15.00% peak, and the minutes followed on Tuesday 22 September 2026.
Annual inflation ran at 4.22% in August, on IBGE figures. That leaves a real policy rate near 9%.
That cushion can attract carry inflows. A renewed US yield shock would still test the real, so easing is likely to stay gradual.
03 PMIs carry the growth burden
Wednesday’s flash surveys are the first broad post-Fed read on private-sector momentum. Germany’s composite reading is seen at 51.8, matching August.
The US composite is forecast at 55.2 after 56.0 in August. Both land before New York opens.
Japan’s flash PMIs slip to Thursday 24 September 2026, because 23 September is Autumnal Equinox Day. The consensus for its factory index is 55, against 54.9 in August.
The German Ifo index and Banxico’s rate decision also fall on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics expect Mexico to hold at 6.50%.
Brazil’s key sensitivity remains external. It is dollar strength, US yields and how fast domestic rates can fall.
What to watch today and this week
- Today: South Africa’s reserve bank rules on rates at 13:00 UTC, after the German and US flash PMIs.
- Thursday: Japan’s flash PMIs at 00:30 UTC, the German Ifo index, US jobless claims and Banxico’s decision at 19:00 UTC.
- Friday: Late-week US and European data, plus bond-market direction after the 10-year yield’s approach to 5%.
- Next week: US inflation, labour-market and Federal Reserve communication risks.
- Ongoing: Dollar strength, Brazil’s Selic path, the real and carry-trade flows.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did equities pause?
Elevated Treasury yields reduced the appeal of richly valued shares.
What is the Fed’s latest stance?
It raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September 2026, and the dollar firmed.
Why does Brazil still attract investors?
The Selic at 13.75% leaves Brazil with an exceptionally high real interest-rate cushion.
What matters most for the real?
The dollar, US Treasury yields and expectations for further Brazilian rate cuts.
Are PMIs still relevant?
Yes, they are the first broad post-Fed read on whether global growth is cooling without breaking.
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