IBOV 172,024 ▼ 0.68% IPSA 10,840 ▲ 0.72% IPC MEX 66,967 ▼ 1.00% MERVAL 3,168,608 ▼ 0.26% COLCAP 2,269.08 ▼ 0.75% BVL PERÚ 55,499.93 — 0.00% USD/BRL5.18▲ 0.43% USD/MXN17.52▲ 0.20% USD/CLP922.45▲ 0.05% USD/COP3,393▼ 1.47% USD/PEN3.41▼ 0.37% USD/ARS1,484▲ 0.15% USD/UYU40.22▲ 1.44% USD/PYG6,084▲ 1.98% USD/BOB6.85▲ 1.65% USD/DOP59.19▲ 0.89% USD/CRC450.59▲ 2.27% USD/GTQ7.62▲ 2.44% USD/HNL26.70▲ 0.48% USD/NIO36.62▲ 0.89% USD/VES620.66▲ 5.79% USD/PAB1.00— 0.00% USD/BZD2.00— 0.00% USD/JMD156.39▲ 0.49% USD/TTD6.74▲ 1.30% EUR/BRL5.91▼ 0.12% BRENT 72.87 ▼ 0.07% WTI 69.31 ▼ 0.27% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.14 ▼ 0.91% GOLD 3,988 ▼ 0.87% SILVER 58.18 ▼ 2.19% SOY 1,146 ▲ 2.57% CORN 439.00 ▲ 6.36% WHEAT 593.75 ▲ 2.24% COFFEE 286.70 ▼ 1.51% SUGAR 15.13 ▲ 5.51% ORANGE JUICE 163.80 ▲ 15.56% COTTON 77.46 ▲ 7.26% COCOA 5,173 ▲ 5.68% BEEF 242.25 ▼ 5.89% CATTLE 364.35 ▼ 0.85% LITHIUM 78.28 ▲ 1.25% PETR4 37.80 ▼ 0.89% VALE3 77.88 ▼ 0.32% ITUB4 42.18 ▼ 0.54% BBDC4 18.10 ▼ 0.39% ABEV3 16.29 ▼ 1.81% BBAS3 19.91 ▼ 1.73% B3SA3 14.53 ▼ 1.22% WEGE3 46.91 ▲ 0.26% PRIO3 52.15 ▼ 1.88% SUZB3 39.75 ▲ 0.18% RENT3 41.54 ▼ 1.68% AZZA3 17.88 ▼ 2.72% CSAN3 3.70 ▼ 0.27% RAIZ4 0.38 ▼ 5.00% PCAR3 2.31 ▼ 0.43% GMAT3 3.67 ▼ 4.18% PSSA3 52.92 ▼ 0.71% CVCB3 1.36 ▼ 2.86% POSI3 4.10 ▲ 0.99% SLCE3 12.90 ▼ 0.85% NATU3 8.73 ▲ 5.18% BRKM5 6.36 ▼ 3.78% RANI3 7.84 ▼ 0.38% CSNA3 4.62 ▼ 0.43% CMIN3 4.18 ▲ 0.48% USIM5 8.45 ▲ 1.44% GGBR4 20.78 ▼ 2.40% ENEV3 26.72 ▲ 0.04% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 44.78 ▼ 0.82% CMIG4 10.87 ▼ 0.73% EQTL3 38.94 ▼ 2.01% LREN3 14.76 ▼ 1.53% VIVT3 33.95 ▼ 1.31% RAIL3 13.43 ▼ 1.32% KLABIN 16.74 ▼ 0.89% RAIA DROGASIL 16.81 ▼ 2.04% RDOR3 34.71 ▲ 0.09% HAPV3 10.21 ▼ 1.35% FLRY3 15.40 ▼ 1.16% SMTO3 15.70 ▲ 2.28% UGPA3 26.06 ▼ 0.99% VBBR3 29.89 ▼ 0.10% BBSE3 39.17 ▼ 0.41% BPAC11 54.09 ▼ 0.77% CURY3 35.06 ▼ 0.85% AERI3 2.02 ▼ 1.46% VIVARA 22.88 ▼ 0.52% COMPASS 24.28 ▼ 0.41% VAMOS 2.81 ▼ 2.43% SANB11 26.80 ▼ 0.07% ASAI3 8.74 ▼ 2.89% SBSP3 29.64 ▼ 0.03% WALMEX 51.26 ▲ 0.23% GMEXICO 197.62 ▼ 1.77% FEMSA 223.50 ▼ 2.04% CEMEX 21.00 ▼ 1.27% GFNORTE 185.20 ▲ 0.10% BIMBO 57.10 ▲ 0.21% TELEVISA 9.63 ▼ 0.41% AMX 22.73 ▼ 2.57% GAP 441.90 ▼ 0.81% ASUR 306.70 ▼ 0.56% OMA 247.17 ▲ 0.32% KOF 185.87 ▼ 0.32% GRUMA 282.05 ▼ 0.24% KIMBER 38.62 ▼ 0.69% SQM-B 68,450 ▲ 3.79% COPEC 5,751 ▼ 0.24% BSANTANDER 75.50 ▲ 0.67% FALABELLA 5,756 ▼ 2.62% ENELAM 82.60 ▲ 0.73% CENCOSUD 2,130 ▲ 0.14% CMPC 1,026 ▼ 1.35% BANCO CHILE 180.50 ▲ 1.52% LATAM AIR 26.81 ▼ 0.59% YPF 71,225 ▲ 0.92% GGAL 7,810 ▼ 0.95% PAMPA 5,135 ▲ 0.98% TXAR 662.00 ▼ 2.22% ALUAR 985.00 ▲ 0.25% TGS 9,325 ▲ 0.21% CEPU 2,323 ▼ 0.73% MIRGOR 16,250 ▲ 1.09% COME 41.95 ▼ 0.87% LOMA NEGRA 3,648 ▲ 1.04% BYMA 310.25 ▲ 1.39% TELECOM ARG 4,045 ▼ 0.19% ECOPETROL 14.24 ▼ 2.20% BANCOLOMBIA 79.43 ▼ 0.48% GRUPO AVAL 5.06 ▼ 0.76% CREDICORP 389.58 ▲ 1.26% SOUTHERN COPPER 174.26 ▲ 3.45% BUENAVENTURA 29.29 ▲ 2.48% MERCADOLIBRE 1,697 ▲ 0.85% NUBANK 13.36 ▲ 1.75% XP 16.26 ▼ 0.31% PAGSEGURO 9.05 ▼ 0.33% STONE 10.84 ▼ 0.46% GLOBANT 28.94 ▼ 3.79% TECNOGLASS 46.81 ▲ 1.30% GAP AIRPORT 253.08 ▼ 0.58% ASUR 306.70 ▼ 0.56% OMA AIRPORT 113.09 ▼ 0.17% AMX ADR 25.99 ▼ 2.84% FEMSA ADR 127.90 ▼ 2.52% CEMEX ADR 12.00 ▼ 1.15% PETROBRAS ADR 16.16 ▼ 0.74% VALE ADR 15.04 ▲ 0.07% ITAU ADR 8.17 ▼ 0.61% SANTANDER BR 5.25 ▲ 0.38% AMBEV ADR 3.14 ▼ 1.26% CSN 0.92 ▲ 0.54% GERDAU 4.04 ▼ 2.18% LATAM ADR 58.27 ▼ 0.73% BTC 58,514 ▼ 0.08% ETH 1,569 ▼ 0.01% SOL 74.49 ▲ 1.31% XRP 1.04 ▲ 0.03% BNB 544.20 ▼ 0.27% ADA 0.15 ▲ 3.56% DOGE 0.07 ▼ 1.42% AVAX 6.62 ▲ 1.43% LINK 7.18 ▼ 0.19% DOT 0.83 ▲ 1.26% LTC 42.02 ▲ 0.34% BCH 201.77 ▲ 1.14% TRX 0.32 ▲ 0.27% XLM 0.20 ▲ 5.41% HBAR 0.07 ▼ 1.16% NEAR 1.78 ▼ 0.08% ATOM 1.51 ▼ 0.17% AAVE 85.56 ▲ 0.65% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 81.85 ▲ 2.08% EMBRAER ADR 63.80 ▲ 2.65% JBS 11.85 ▼ 3.03% JBS BDR 60.85 ▼ 3.21% MBRF3 18.03 ▲ 1.86% MBRFY 3.47 ▲ 1.76% INTER 5.43 ▲ 0.93% EGX 50,644 ▲ 0.31% USD/ZAR16.41▲ 0.10% USD/NGN 1,378 — 0.00% NIKKEI 70,475 ▲ 0.59% CSI300 4,959 ▼ 0.41% HSI 22,881 ▼ 0.63% NIFTY 24,019 ▲ 0.64% KOSPI 8,303 ▼ 2.04% JCI 5,713 ▲ 1.23% USD/JPY162.66▲ 0.06% USD/CNY6.79▲ 0.11% DAX 25,063 ▲ 0.27% CAC 8,375 ▼ 0.34% FTSE 10,493 ▼ 0.04% MIB 51,543 ▼ 0.27% IBEX 19,395 ▼ 0.39% STOXX 640.97 ▼ 0.12% EUR/USD1.14▼ 0.17% GBP/USD1.32▼ 0.05% SPX 7,499 ▲ 0.79% DJI 52,319 ▲ 0.26% NDX 30,276 ▲ 1.68% RUT 3,024 ▲ 0.47% TSX 34,857 ▲ 0.10% VIX 16.99 ▲ 3.28% USD/CAD1.42▲ 0.19% US10Y 4.4180 ▲ 1.01% IBOV 172,024 ▼ 0.68% IPSA 10,840 ▲ 0.72% IPC MEX 66,967 ▼ 1.00% MERVAL 3,168,608 ▼ 0.26% COLCAP 2,269.08 ▼ 0.75% BVL PERÚ 55,499.93 — 0.00% USD/BRL 5.18 ▲ 0.43% USD/MXN 17.52 ▲ 0.20% USD/CLP 922.45 ▲ 0.05% USD/COP 3,393 ▼ 1.47% USD/PEN 3.41 ▼ 0.37% USD/ARS 1,484 ▼ 0.03% USD/UYU 40.22 ▲ 1.44% USD/PYG 6,084 ▲ 1.98% USD/BOB 6.85 ▲ 1.65% USD/DOP 59.19 ▲ 1.86% USD/CRC 450.59 ▲ 2.27% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▲ 2.44% USD/HNL 26.70 ▲ 0.48% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.89% USD/VES 620.66 ▲ 5.79% USD/PAB 1.00 — 0.00% USD/BZD 2.00 — 0.00% USD/JMD 156.39 ▲ 0.49% USD/TTD 6.74 ▲ 1.30% EUR/BRL 5.91 ▼ 0.12% BRENT 72.87 ▼ 0.07% WTI 69.31 ▼ 0.27% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.14 ▼ 0.91% GOLD 3,988 ▼ 0.87% SILVER 58.18 ▼ 2.19% SOY 1,146 ▲ 2.57% CORN 439.00 ▲ 6.36% WHEAT 593.75 ▲ 2.24% COFFEE 286.70 ▼ 1.51% SUGAR 15.13 ▲ 5.51% ORANGE JUICE 163.80 ▲ 15.56% COTTON 77.46 ▲ 7.26% COCOA 5,173 ▲ 5.68% BEEF 242.25 ▼ 5.89% CATTLE 364.35 ▼ 0.85% LITHIUM 78.28 ▲ 1.25% PETR4 37.80 ▼ 0.89% VALE3 77.88 ▼ 0.32% ITUB4 42.18 ▼ 0.54% BBDC4 18.10 ▼ 0.39% ABEV3 16.29 ▼ 1.81% BBAS3 19.91 ▼ 1.73% B3SA3 14.53 ▼ 1.22% WEGE3 46.91 ▲ 0.26% PRIO3 52.15 ▼ 1.88% SUZB3 39.75 ▲ 0.18% RENT3 41.54 ▼ 1.68% AZZA3 17.88 ▼ 2.72% CSAN3 3.70 ▼ 0.27% RAIZ4 0.38 ▼ 5.00% PCAR3 2.31 ▼ 0.43% GMAT3 3.67 ▼ 4.18% PSSA3 52.92 ▼ 0.71% CVCB3 1.36 ▼ 2.86% POSI3 4.10 ▲ 0.99% SLCE3 12.90 ▼ 0.85% NATU3 8.73 ▲ 5.18% BRKM5 6.36 ▼ 3.78% RANI3 7.84 ▼ 0.38% CSNA3 4.62 ▼ 0.43% CMIN3 4.18 ▲ 0.48% USIM5 8.45 ▲ 1.44% GGBR4 20.78 ▼ 2.40% ENEV3 26.72 ▲ 0.04% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 44.78 ▼ 0.82% CMIG4 10.87 ▼ 0.73% EQTL3 38.94 ▼ 2.01% LREN3 14.76 ▼ 1.53% VIVT3 33.95 ▼ 1.31% RAIL3 13.43 ▼ 1.32% KLABIN 16.74 ▼ 0.89% RAIA DROGASIL 16.81 ▼ 2.04% RDOR3 34.71 ▲ 0.09% HAPV3 10.21 ▼ 1.35% FLRY3 15.40 ▼ 1.16% SMTO3 15.70 ▲ 2.28% UGPA3 26.06 ▼ 0.99% VBBR3 29.89 ▼ 0.10% BBSE3 39.17 ▼ 0.41% BPAC11 54.09 ▼ 0.77% CURY3 35.06 ▼ 0.85% AERI3 2.02 ▼ 1.46% VIVARA 22.88 ▼ 0.52% COMPASS 24.28 ▼ 0.41% VAMOS 2.81 ▼ 2.43% SANB11 26.80 ▼ 0.07% ASAI3 8.74 ▼ 2.89% SBSP3 29.64 ▼ 0.03% WALMEX 51.26 ▲ 0.23% GMEXICO 197.62 ▼ 1.77% FEMSA 223.50 ▼ 2.04% CEMEX 21.00 ▼ 1.27% GFNORTE 185.20 ▲ 0.10% BIMBO 57.10 ▲ 0.21% TELEVISA 9.63 ▼ 0.41% AMX 22.73 ▼ 2.57% GAP 441.90 ▼ 0.81% ASUR 306.70 ▼ 0.56% OMA 247.17 ▲ 0.32% KOF 185.87 ▼ 0.32% GRUMA 282.05 ▼ 0.24% KIMBER 38.62 ▼ 0.69% SQM-B 68,450 ▲ 3.79% COPEC 5,751 ▼ 0.24% BSANTANDER 75.50 ▲ 0.67% FALABELLA 5,756 ▼ 2.62% ENELAM 82.60 ▲ 0.73% CENCOSUD 2,130 ▲ 0.14% CMPC 1,026 ▼ 1.35% BANCO CHILE 180.50 ▲ 1.52% LATAM AIR 26.81 ▼ 0.59% YPF 71,225 ▲ 0.92% GGAL 7,810 ▼ 0.95% PAMPA 5,135 ▲ 0.98% TXAR 662.00 ▼ 2.22% ALUAR 985.00 ▲ 0.25% TGS 9,325 ▲ 0.21% CEPU 2,323 ▼ 0.73% MIRGOR 16,250 ▲ 1.09% COME 41.95 ▼ 0.87% LOMA NEGRA 3,648 ▲ 1.04% BYMA 310.25 ▲ 1.39% TELECOM ARG 4,045 ▼ 0.19% ECOPETROL 14.24 ▼ 2.20% BANCOLOMBIA 79.43 ▼ 0.48% GRUPO AVAL 5.06 ▼ 0.76% CREDICORP 389.58 ▲ 1.26% SOUTHERN COPPER 174.26 ▲ 3.45% BUENAVENTURA 29.29 ▲ 2.48% MERCADOLIBRE 1,697 ▲ 0.85% NUBANK 13.36 ▲ 1.75% XP 16.26 ▼ 0.31% PAGSEGURO 9.05 ▼ 0.33% STONE 10.84 ▼ 0.46% GLOBANT 28.94 ▼ 3.79% TECNOGLASS 46.81 ▲ 1.30% GAP AIRPORT 253.08 ▼ 0.58% ASUR 306.70 ▼ 0.56% OMA AIRPORT 113.09 ▼ 0.17% AMX ADR 25.99 ▼ 2.84% FEMSA ADR 127.90 ▼ 2.52% CEMEX ADR 12.00 ▼ 1.15% PETROBRAS ADR 16.16 ▼ 0.74% VALE ADR 15.04 ▲ 0.07% ITAU ADR 8.17 ▼ 0.61% SANTANDER BR 5.25 ▲ 0.38% AMBEV ADR 3.14 ▼ 1.26% CSN 0.92 ▲ 0.54% GERDAU 4.04 ▼ 2.18% LATAM ADR 58.27 ▼ 0.73% BTC 58,514 ▼ 0.08% ETH 1,569 ▼ 0.01% SOL 74.49 ▲ 1.31% XRP 1.04 ▲ 0.03% BNB 544.20 ▼ 0.27% ADA 0.15 ▲ 3.56% DOGE 0.07 ▼ 1.42% AVAX 6.62 ▲ 1.43% LINK 7.18 ▼ 0.19% DOT 0.83 ▲ 1.26% LTC 42.02 ▲ 0.34% BCH 201.77 ▲ 1.14% TRX 0.32 ▲ 0.27% XLM 0.20 ▲ 5.41% HBAR 0.07 ▼ 1.16% NEAR 1.78 ▼ 0.08% ATOM 1.51 ▼ 0.17% AAVE 85.56 ▲ 0.65% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 81.85 ▲ 2.08% EMBRAER ADR 63.80 ▲ 2.65% JBS 11.85 ▼ 3.03% JBS BDR 60.85 ▼ 3.21% MBRF3 18.03 ▲ 1.86% MBRFY 3.47 ▲ 1.76% INTER 5.43 ▲ 0.93% EGX 50,644 ▲ 0.31% USD/ZAR 16.41 ▲ 0.25% USD/NGN 1,378 — 0.00% NIKKEI 70,475 ▲ 0.59% CSI300 4,959 ▼ 0.41% HSI 22,881 ▼ 0.63% NIFTY 24,019 ▲ 0.64% KOSPI 8,303 ▼ 2.04% JCI 5,713 ▲ 1.23% USD/JPY 162.64 ▲ 0.06% USD/CNY 6.7929 ▲ 0.22% DAX 25,063 ▲ 0.27% CAC 8,375 ▼ 0.34% FTSE 10,493 ▼ 0.04% MIB 51,543 ▼ 0.27% IBEX 19,395 ▼ 0.39% STOXX 640.97 ▼ 0.12% EUR/USD 1.1399 ▼ 0.24% GBP/USD 1.3248 ▼ 0.11% SPX 7,499 ▲ 0.79% DJI 52,319 ▲ 0.26% NDX 30,276 ▲ 1.68% RUT 3,024 ▲ 0.47% TSX 34,857 ▲ 0.10% VIX 16.99 ▲ 3.28% USD/CAD 1.4223 ▲ 0.20% US10Y 4.4180 ▲ 1.01%
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Nigeria’s Stock Market Ends the Half-Year as Africa’s Best

By · July 1, 2026 · 5 min read

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NIGERIA · MARKETS

Key Facts

Best in Africa: The Nigerian Exchange returned about 59.5 percent in dollars in the year to late June, the highest of 17 African markets tracked, ahead of Ghana’s 57.7 percent (Businessday).

Record value: Listed equities rose from 99.94 trillion naira in January to 146.56 trillion on 30 June, a six-month gain of 46.6 trillion naira (Tribune).

Index surge: The All-Share Index climbed 45.95 percent in naira terms, from 156,492 to 228,401 points.

June wobble: Investors still booked profits late in the quarter, trimming roughly 9.8 trillion naira from the market in June alone.

Energy leads: The Oil and Gas index was the top sector, up about 90.3 percent, driven by Aradel, Seplat Energy and Oando.

Second-largest: By May, Nigeria had overtaken Morocco to become Africa’s second-largest equity market, per Afridigest.

Wider cushion: External reserves near a 17-year high above 51 billion dollars have steadied the naira and drawn foreign money.

The Nigerian stock market closed the first half of 2026 as Africa’s best performer, returning about 59.5 percent in dollar terms and lifting listed companies to a record 146.56 trillion naira even after a sharp sell-off in June.

Nigerian stock market — Lagos financial district skyline
Lagos, home to the Nigerian Exchange, which led all of Africa in the first half of 2026. (Photo: Internet reproduction)
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Why the Nigerian stock market leads Africa

The Nigerian stock market has spent 2026 rewarding investors who stayed the course. Its benchmark index rose 45.95 percent in the first six months, according to exchange data reported by local outlets.

In dollar terms the gain was larger still, at roughly 59.5 percent by late June. That was the strongest showing among the 17 African markets tracked by Businessday, ahead of Ghana’s 57.7 percent.

The rally rests on two years of hard reforms. A floated naira, higher interest rates and cleaner fuel-subsidy accounts have made Nigerian assets easier for outsiders to price.

For an international reader, the shift matters beyond Lagos. It signals that Africa’s most populous country is again competing for global portfolio money after a long spell in the cold.

A record half-year in numbers

The value of listed equities climbed from 99.94 trillion naira in January to 146.56 trillion on 30 June. That six-month gain of 46.6 trillion naira, reported by the Tribune, is the largest on record.

The All-Share Index moved from 156,492 points to 228,401 over the same window. Both the price index and the total market value reached fresh highs.

Energy stocks did the heavy lifting. The Oil and Gas index advanced about 90.3 percent, led by Aradel Holdings, Seplat Energy and Oando.

By May, Nigeria had overtaken Morocco to become Africa’s second-largest equity market, according to the pan-African data platform Afridigest. Only South Africa’s exchange is now bigger.

The June sell-off, and what it signals

The half did not end quietly. Investors trimmed roughly 9.8 trillion naira from the market in June as some booked profits after the long climb, Businessday reported.

That pullback did little to dent the wider picture. Nigeria kept its place at the top of the continental table even after the retreat.

Profit-taking of this kind is common after a steep run. It often reflects healthy rotation rather than a loss of confidence in the underlying story.

The test now is whether earnings and dividends can justify the higher prices. That question will shape trading through the rest of the year.

What is drawing foreign money back

Foreign portfolio investors had largely avoided Nigeria during years of currency controls and dollar shortages. The mood has begun to change.

External reserves near a 17-year high above 51 billion dollars have steadied the naira and eased fears about repatriating profits. A more predictable exchange rate is the single biggest draw.

Banking, consumer-goods and energy shares have all gained from the improved sentiment. Higher oil output and new refining capacity add to the case for the sector.

Risks remain real, from stubborn inflation to global swings in the oil price. Investors are being paid to take them, but the margin for error is thinner at record levels.

How Nigeria stacks up against its peers

The scale of the run stands out across the region. Ghana came a close second in dollar terms, while Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Tunisia and Tanzania followed further back.

That spread shows the rally is not a one-country story. Several African markets have rewarded investors willing to look past the risks.

Nigeria’s edge lies in its size and its reforms. A large, liquid market backed by real policy change is a rare combination on the continent.

For funds building an Africa allocation, that makes Lagos hard to ignore. The question is whether the momentum can survive a cooler global mood.

What to watch in the second half

The direction of inflation will matter most. A steady fall would let the central bank ease policy and support both shares and the naira.

New listings could also test appetite. A deeper pipeline of offerings would show that the rally is broadening beyond a handful of large names.

For now, Nigeria has made its point. Africa’s biggest population has produced its best-performing market, and the world is paying attention again.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Nigerian stock market the best performer in Africa in 2026?

Yes. It returned about 59.5 percent in dollar terms in the year to late June, the highest of 17 African markets tracked by Businessday.

How much did the Nigerian market gain in the first half of 2026?

Listed equities rose from 99.94 trillion naira in January to 146.56 trillion on 30 June, a gain of 46.6 trillion. The All-Share Index climbed 45.95 percent.

Why did Nigerian stocks fall in June?

Investors booked profits after a long rally, trimming roughly 9.8 trillion naira from the market. The pullback did not cost Nigeria its top ranking in Africa.

What is driving the rally?

Currency reform, reserves above 51 billion dollars and strong energy shares have drawn foreign money back. The Oil and Gas index rose about 90.3 percent.

Connected Coverage

The rally builds on a steadier currency, helped by Nigeria’s reserves reaching a 17-year high. It also fits a wider revival in African capital markets, from Ethiopia’s first stock index to the continent’s record trade, now past 1.5 trillion dollars.

Part of our ongoing coverage

Africa: The New Scramble — the great-power contest over the continent.

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