Museveni Ditches Ruto, Says Kenya Oil Import Scheme Swindled Uganda

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Museveni ditches Ruto over a fuel import scheme he says was swindling Uganda through Kenyan middlemen. The switch moves Kampala to direct imports through the Uganda National Oil Company. It cuts Kenyan firms out of roughly US$180 million in monthly purchases.

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has publicly accused unnamed Kenyan middlemen of inflating his country’s fuel import costs and confirmed that Kampala has moved to direct imports through the state-owned Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC). The shift ends Uganda’s reliance on Kenya’s former open-tender fuel supply model, which Ugandan reporting says had covered about 95 percent of the country’s petroleum needs via Kenya.

A senator’s warning triggers the break

Museveni said a Kenyan senator alerted him that Uganda was “buying petroleum products through middlemen in Kenya.” The president then cited sharply lower premiums after the change, a move that has turned a technical procurement decision into a regional political storm.

The numbers Museveni offered are specific. Diesel premiums fell from US$118 to US$83 per metric tonne, petrol from US$97.50 to US$61.50, and aviation fuel from US$114.25 to US$79.25.

Uganda’s Energy Ministry and local reporting say UNOC received its first direct petroleum consignment at Mombasa in July 2024. UNOC now imports directly while still using Kenya’s pipeline and port infrastructure, meaning Kampala has not abandoned Kenyan logistics entirely.

Kenya’s government-to-government deal under fire

The political fallout has widened into a Kenya-Uganda blame game. Kenyan opposition figures, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, have used Museveni’s remarks to attack President William Ruto’s government-to-government fuel deal.

Some Kenyan outlets describe the arrangement as a “middlemen” scheme rather than a true state-to-state deal. The accusation cuts at the heart of Ruto’s energy policy, which was designed to ease dollar demand and stabilise pump prices in Kenya.

Museveni’s decision to go public gives Gachagua and other critics fresh ammunition. The Ugandan leader is not merely describing a commercial dispute; he is validating a narrative that Kenyan insiders have profited at Uganda’s expense.

The money and power stakes

For the wider money-and-power context, the stakes are regional transit rents, fuel margins, and control over a market worth hundreds of millions of dollars monthly. One report says Uganda’s exit removed about US$180 million a month in purchases from Kenyan firms.

That is a significant loss for Kenyan traders and logistics companies that had grown accustomed to handling Ugandan fuel orders. Yet Kenya retains leverage because Uganda’s direct imports still pass through Mombasa port and the Kenyan pipeline network.

The arrangement leaves both countries locked in a relationship neither can fully exit. Uganda wants cheaper fuel, while Kenya wants to preserve transit fees and regional influence.

The great-power and South-South layer

The great-power layer is indirect but real. The dispute sits inside East Africa’s contest over logistics, state leverage, and access to Gulf-sourced refined fuel moving through Mombasa.

Swiss-based Dutch trader Vitol is named in Uganda’s new supply chain, a signal that Kampala is turning to established international commodity houses rather than Kenyan intermediaries. This fits a broader pattern of African states seeking direct deals with global suppliers to bypass regional middlemen.

The shift also echoes the wider scramble for control over African energy corridors, a theme covered in our Africa: The New Scramble pillar. East African states are increasingly willing to challenge inherited supply chains when the numbers no longer work.

What to watch next

Ruto’s government now faces a difficult choice. It can defend the government-to-government deal and risk further public damage, or it can quietly adjust the framework to address the middlemen accusations.

For Uganda, the test is whether UNOC can sustain direct imports at the lower premiums Museveni has cited. Any supply disruption or price spike would hand Kenyan critics a powerful counterargument.

The regional read-through is clear: smaller East African economies are watching whether Uganda’s direct-import model delivers lasting savings. If it does, pressure will build on Kenya to reform its fuel supply system or lose more transit business.

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