Milei’s Confidence Gauge Ends 2025 Steady, After A Year Of Political Whiplash

Key Points

1. Di Tella’s Government Confidence Index ended December 2025 at 2.46 (0–5), virtually flat after a November surge.
2. The year’s band was tight but turbulent: a high of 2.61 in January and a low of 1.94 in September, then a fast rebound.
3. The December reading implies 49.2% approval, with a clear regional split: Interior 52.8%, Buenos Aires city 49.8%, Greater Buenos Aires 42.0%.

Argentina’s most closely watched “governability thermometer” closed 2025 with an anticlimax: not a crash, not a triumph, but endurance.

The Government Confidence Index (ICG), produced by the Escuela de Gobierno of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (fieldwork by Poliarquía Consultores), finished December at 2.46 on a 0–5 scale, down a barely visible 0.1% from November.

That stability matters because it followed a dramatic November jump of 17.5%, suggesting a late-year consolidation rather than another swing.

Zoom out and the story is less about the final number than about the path. In 2025 the index moved inside what Di Tella described as a relatively narrow range—peaking at 2.61 in January and bottoming at 1.94 in September—yet it did so with sharp monthly jolts.

Economic and Political Moves Drive Argentine Sentiment

Confidence fell 13.6% in August and 8.2% in September, then recovered 8.1% in October and surged in November before flattening in December. In other words: the floor held, but only after a rough midyear.

What sits behind those moves is a sequence familiar to anyone tracking reform governments: high-stakes economic changes, legislative trench warfare, and a public that recalibrates quickly when plans collide with reality.

The index tracked several political shocks during the year, including the February $Libra crypto episode, fights over university funding and a disability-emergency bill, a turbulent July dismantling of the LeFi, and a September electoral setback in Buenos Aires Province.

The rebound, in turn, was linked to the loosening of capital controls and a strong October 26 vote showing. The index is not a “who would you vote for” poll.

It blends five perceptions—performance, honesty, problem-solving capacity, spending efficiency, and concern for the general interest.

In December, ‘concern for the general interest’ and ‘overall evaluation of the government’ rose slightly, while ‘problem-solving capacity’ and ‘honesty’ fell. Poliarquía surveyed 1,000 people from December 1–15.

Why it is worth knowing abroad: Argentina’s reform pace depends on political credit. A steadier reading implies Milei can keep bargaining, keep cutting deals, and keep markets guessing less wildly.

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