Mexico Between Washington and the Cartels: A Year of Containment and Cleanups

Key Points

• USMCA blunted tariff damage in 2025, but its July 2026 review is the next pressure point.
• Sheinbaum kept a calm tone, while tightening enforcement to reduce intervention talk.
• “Huachicol fiscal” showed fuel crime has shifted into ports, customs, and paperwork.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House put Mexico back in a squeeze: border escalation, cartel labels, and tariff threats. As our reporting has shown, Trump’s pressure included public suggestions of unilateral U.S. military strikes inside Mexico, a prospect Sheinbaum has repeatedly and flatly rejected.

President Claudia Sheinbaum refused a public shouting match. She waited a day, then urged “a cool head,” framing patience as an investor-friendly tool, not a posture.

More than four-fifths of Mexico’s goods exports go to the United States. USMCA still shields most shipments, but only if firms claim its preferences. Exports that do not use the treaty can be exposed to 25% tariffs.

Steel and aluminum faced separate U.S. measures pushing duties toward 50%. The next leverage point is July 2026, when USMCA’s formal review can be politicized. Sheinbaum traveled to Washington around December 5, 2025, for her first direct meeting with Trump.

The economy offered little margin for experiments. Growth weakened and activity contracted in parts of 2025. Remittances fell more than 5%.

Mexico’s Crackdown Impacts Trade and Governance

Security became the second track. After cartel designations and after Trump labeled illicit fentanyl a “weapon of mass destruction” on December 16, Mexico sought to demonstrate control through numbers.

Authorities reported 38,700 arrests, drug seizures above 311 tons, and a 37% drop in daily homicides between September 2024 and November 2025. Mexico also transferred 29 alleged cartel figures to U.S. custody in February and 26 more in August.

At home, Sheinbaum tightened the justice chain. Alejandro Gertz Manero remained Mexico’s Attorney General; Ernestina Godoy became Attorney General of Mexico City.

Then “huachicol fiscal” erupted: 69 misdeclared fuel shipments, about 564 million liters, and illicit gains above $150 million routed through ports and customs. A Tabasco policing scandal and questions over a powerful senator’s wealth disclosures followed.

Year-end approval was still near 74%. For readers abroad, the takeaway is simple: Mexico is North America’s factory floor. If USMCA politics or security governance slips, supply chains and investment plans move fast.

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