Mexico Judicial Reform: 28.8% of Surveyed Firms Cut or Delay Projects
MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest economy and one of the largest trading partners of the United States. Its courts decide how contracts, tax disputes and permits end for companies that invest there.
- —The background A 2024 constitutional reform made federal judges stand for election. Voters filled 881 federal posts on 1 June 2025, on a turnout of about 13%, and a new Supreme Court took office that September.
- —Why now A year after the elected judges took office, Coparmex, Mexico’s employers’ federation, has published its first survey of how companies see the new courts.
- —What happened On 1 October 2026 it reported that 28.8% of 3,721 member firms have cut or postponed concrete projects. Two-thirds, 67.8%, see a negative effect on investment decisions; 3.6% see a positive one.
- —The numbers Some 55.9% say legal certainty over property and contracts has fallen; 3.3% see improvement. Federal courts hold 210,459 cases ready for judgment that have waited over 90 days.
- —What it means for you If you invest or do business in Mexico, expect partners to ask for arbitration clauses, insurance and other safeguards: 46.3% of surveyed firms have already changed their legal strategy.
- —Still open The survey reports opinions, not money. Coparmex has not put a figure on the investment delayed, nor said when the survey was taken.
Nearly three in ten Mexican companies in an employers’ survey say the country’s judicial reform has made them cut or postpone projects. Coparmex, the employers’ federation, put the share at 28.8% of 3,721 member firms on Thursday 1 October 2026.
The reform made judges stand for popular election, and a new elected Supreme Court was sworn in on 1 September 2025. A year on, two-thirds of the firms surveyed say it has hurt their investment decisions.
What the survey found
Coparmex, the Confederación Patronal de la República Mexicana, represents employers through 71 regional business centres. Its data unit polled 3,721 member companies for a new “Judicial Monitor”, its first measurement of the reform’s effects.
Of those firms, 67.8% said the reform had a negative effect on their decisions to invest or expand. Only 3.6% saw a positive effect.
The effect goes beyond mood. Some 38.9% of firms now act with more caution before investing, and 28.8% have already cut or postponed concrete projects.
Companies are also changing how they protect themselves. Some 46.3% have adjusted their legal strategy through contracts, arbitration, insurance or litigation, and 34.5% are considering it.
Why companies worry about the courts
In all, 55.9% said legal certainty had fallen for property, contracts and access to the amparo, while 3.3% saw an improvement. The amparo is a Mexican court action that lets citizens and companies challenge acts of the state.
Speed is part of the complaint, though Coparmex calls the backlog an inherited problem the reform promised to fix. It cited figures from the Judicial Administration Body, which now runs the federal courts.
That body counts 210,459 cases ready for judgment that have waited more than 90 days, 62.7% of all cases at that stage. A business with a contract dispute or a tax claim can spend months waiting for a ruling.
“For those who invest and create jobs, legal certainty means having predictable rules,” Coparmex said, as quoted by the magazine Proceso. The new judiciary “can only be considered successful” if it guarantees legal certainty, it added, according to La Jornada.
Under the 2024 amendment, federal judges, magistrates and Supreme Court justices now win their posts at the ballot box. Critics say this leaves judges answerable to the politics that nominated them.
How this fits Mexico’s investment picture
Official figures showed record foreign direct investment in Mexico in the first half of 2026, mostly from reinvested profits. Fresh new investment fell 13.4%, a sign that money already in the country is staying while new money hesitates.
Legal rules are shifting on other fronts too. On 30 September the Senate passed a reform giving the defence and navy ministries a vote on foreign takeovers of key firms.
Read the other way, about seven in ten surveyed firms did not report cutting or delaying projects. Caution is spreading, but investment has not stopped.
What comes next
Coparmex proposes a technical monitoring and dialogue agenda with the new judiciary. It wants indicators on how long cases take, access to justice, judicial independence, predictable rulings and protection of rights.
The survey measures what business owners report, not money that has left. Coparmex did not put a figure on the investment delayed, and as an employers’ lobby it has a stake in the debate.
Nor does the survey show that courts are ruling against companies; it shows firms pricing in more legal risk. Investors will watch how the elected judges rule before the next judicial election, due in June 2028.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Coparmex?
Coparmex, the Confederación Patronal de la República Mexicana, is Mexico’s employers’ federation. It speaks for member companies through 71 regional business centres and publishes surveys through its data unit, Data Coparmex.
What did Mexico’s judicial reform change?
A 2024 constitutional amendment made federal judges, magistrates and Supreme Court justices stand for popular election. The first vote was held on 1 June 2025, and the new nine-member Supreme Court took office on 1 September 2025.
Does the survey show that investment in Mexico is falling?
Not directly. It records what 3,721 member companies report: 28.8% say they cut or postponed projects. Official data showed record foreign direct investment in the first half of 2026, although new investment fell 13.4%.
How are companies protecting themselves?
According to the survey, 46.3% have changed their legal strategy, using contract clauses, arbitration, insurance or new litigation approaches. Another 34.5% are considering doing so.
Sources: Coparmex press release on the Data Coparmex Judicial Monitor, 1 October 2026, Expansión, 1 October 2026, Proceso, 1 October 2026, La Jornada, 1 October 2026. Background on the reform, the 2025 judicial election and investment data: Rio Times reporting of 7, 23 and 30 September 2026. All retrieved 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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