The Rio Times · Argentina Market Report
Morning Edition · March 24, 2026 · Covering March 23 Session
The Big Three
1
Argentine banks exploded higher as the ceasefire signal triggered a dramatic reversal in risk appetite. Supervielle surged 9.9% in New York, Loma Negra gained 7.2%, IRSA jumped 6.8%, and Banco Francés climbed 6.3%. The Merval rose 1.93% to 2,778,025 in pesos, reclaiming the 2,700,000 level that had acted as a battleground all week. Economist Gustavo Ber attributed the move directly to “signals of a possible de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.”
2
Country risk dropped 33 basis points to 600, retreating sharply from Friday’s 2026 high of 633. Sovereign Globales rallied 0.9% on average, with longer-duration bonds outperforming. The spread compression reflects the global de-risking unwind: when oil collapses and equities rally, the mechanical EM fixed income flows reverse. The 600-bps level remains elevated versus the sub-500 threshold that Argentina needs for full capital market re-access, but the direction is constructive.
3
YPF reversed from hero to laggard as Brent crashed 11% to $99.79 — the mirror image of Friday’s session. The stock fell 1.2% in ADR terms after gaining 1.0% on Friday when it was the sole positive name. The oil crash that benefits every other sector — banks, airlines, consumers — directly hurts Argentina’s Vaca Muerta thesis. Cohen Aliados Financieros warned that two risks dominate: the persistent decline in the real exchange rate and the eventual unwind of carry trade positions as rates keep falling.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P Merval (ARS) | 2,778,025 | +1.93% |
| Country Risk (EMBI+) | 600 bps | −33 bps |
| Brent Crude | $99.79 | −11.0% |
| WTI Crude | $88.84 | −9.60% |
| S&P 500 | 6,580.25 | +1.13% |
| Merval ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | −15.73% |
02 Equities
The Merval index today posted its strongest session in weeks, gaining 1.93% to 2,778,025 as the ceasefire announcement triggered a rotation out of energy and into beaten-down financials. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. The session’s leadership was a complete mirror of Friday: banks that fell 4–5% surged 6–10%, while YPF — Friday’s sole gainer — dropped 1.2% as Brent crashed below $100.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Supervielle | +9.9% |
| Loma Negra | +7.2% |
| IRSA | +6.8% |
| Banco Francés | +6.3% |
| Supervielle (BYMA) | +4.2% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| Vista Energy | −1.5% |
| YPF | −1.2% |
| Energy names only losers | |
Portfolio Personal Inversiones noted this week will be “dominated by the evolution of the Middle East conflict, with crude still sensitive to any Hormuz news.” Cohen Aliados flagged two structural risks beyond the war: the persistent decline in the real exchange rate and the potential for carry trade unwinding as domestic rates keep falling. The BCRA continues buying FX but at an insufficient pace to rebuild reserves — a vulnerability that would be exposed if the ceasefire collapses and global risk aversion returns.
03 Currency
The FX complex remained stable. The blue dollar, official rate, and CCL all showed minimal movement as the ceasefire news affected global currencies more than local ones. Cohen noted the exchange rate “continues to drift away from the top of the band,” a sign of confidence in the BCRA’s post-cepo framework. The narrowing blue-official gap — now around 4–5% — reflects genuine normalization, though analysts warn that carry trade positions become increasingly vulnerable as peso rates keep declining.
04 Technical Analysis
Monday’s strong green candle at 2,778,025 is the most constructive signal since the January ATH correction began. The MACD histogram at 25,594 has turned decisively positive, though the MACD line (−38,197) and signal (−63,791) remain below zero. RSI has recovered to 52.02/41.88 — the fast RSI crossing above 50 for the first time in weeks, a bullish signal. The 200-day SMA at 2,476,464 sits 10.9% below, confirming the primary uptrend. The 2,784,000 level (mid-Bollinger) is the immediate resistance; a close above opens the path toward 2,834,000.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 2,906,000 | Feb high / upper Bollinger |
| Resistance 1 | 2,834,302 | 50-day EMA |
| Monday Close | 2,778,025 | March 23, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,704,885 | Near-term support |
| Support 2 | 2,476,464 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
For Argentina, the ceasefire dynamic is uniquely asymmetric: lower oil hurts YPF and Vaca Muerta revenue but benefits everything else — banks, consumers, and sovereign spreads. The 33-bps compression in country risk to 600 is the most immediate positive, as it brings capital market re-access (sub-500 target) closer. Milei’s fiscal program and the BCRA’s band system remain intact regardless of the geopolitical outcome.
07 Looking Ahead
Trump’s five-day ceasefire window dominates. If it holds and oil stays below $100, country risk could test 570–580 and the Merval would target 2,834,000. If Iran’s denial proves definitive and oil rebounds, the Friday pattern returns: YPF up, banks down. Cohen’s carry trade warning and the BCRA’s insufficient reserve accumulation are the domestic risks to monitor. U.S. March PMI data will test whether the global economy can absorb the oil shock.
08 Verdict
Bias: BULLISH, upgraded from Neutral. The RSI has crossed above 50, the MACD histogram is positive, country risk is compressing, and Monday’s bank-led rally confirms risk appetite is returning. A close above 2,834,302 targets 2,906,000. A ceasefire collapse and oil above $112 would revert to Neutral. The five-day window is everything.
Related: Argentina News | Latin America Markets | Brazil Economy