The Rio Times · Argentina Market Report
Morning Edition · March 25, 2026 · Covering March 24 Session
The Big Three
1
The Merval consolidated near the 2,780,000 level on Tuesday, holding Monday’s 1.93% gain as Wall Street reversed lower. Infobae reported the index trading around 2,780,000 with a 2% intraday gain before paring into the close. The session featured broad-based ADR buying: Supervielle and Banco Francés led with +4.2% each in New York, while Globales advanced 0.9% on average. The ability to hold Monday’s gains despite the S&P 500 falling 0.36% confirms the domestic bid is genuine, not just a global beta trade.
2
Country risk continued retreating from Friday’s 633 high, moving toward 580 basis points. The 53-bps compression over two sessions (from 633 to ~580) represents the strongest improvement since mid-February. Sovereign Globales continued rallying, with longer-duration bonds leading. Cohen Aliados noted the BCRA continues buying FX but warned the real exchange rate decline and carry trade unwind risk remain structural concerns. The sub-500 threshold for full capital market re-access is now within striking distance if the ceasefire narrative holds.
3
The blue dollar held at ARS 1,405, down 0.35% from the session open. El Cronista reported the blue traded in a tight range, marking its second consecutive day of mild decline. The official dollar also edged lower, with the BCRA maintaining its FX purchasing program. The peso’s continued appreciation against the dollar — while counterintuitive during a global energy crisis — reflects Milei’s fiscal anchor and the carry trade attractiveness of peso-denominated instruments at current rates.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P Merval (ARS) | ~2,780,000 | ~flat |
| Country Risk (EMBI+) | ~580 bps | −20 bps |
| Blue Dollar | ARS 1,405 | −0.35% |
| Brent Crude | $99.54 | −0.40% |
| S&P 500 | 6,557.19 | −0.36% |
| Merval ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | −15.7% |
02 Equities
The Merval index today consolidated near 2,780,000 on a session that saw gains fade as Iran’s renewed missile strikes on Israel and Wall Street’s reversal capped the upside. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. Banks continued to lead, though with smaller gains than Monday’s explosive session. The rotation from energy into financials persisted as oil stayed below $100.
| Top Gainers (ADRs) | Chg |
| Supervielle | +4.2% |
| Banco Francés | +4.2% |
| Grupo Galicia | +3.5% |
| Telecom Argentina | +2.8% |
| Edenor | +2.5% |
| Top Losers (ADRs) | Chg |
| YPF | −1.5% |
| Vista Energy | −1.2% |
| Energy names continued lagging | |
The Globales rallied 0.9% on average, with longer-duration bonds outperforming as the risk compression trade deepened. Cohen Aliados reiterated their warning on carry trade vulnerability: as domestic rates keep falling and the real exchange rate continues declining, the eventual unwind could be disruptive. The BCRA maintained its FX purchasing program, but the pace remains insufficient to rebuild reserves ahead of upcoming debt payments.
03 Currency
The blue dollar closed at ARS 1,405, down 0.35% from the session open. El Cronista noted this marks the second consecutive session of mild decline, reflecting the peso’s unusual strength during a global energy crisis. The blue-official spread remains narrow at 4–5%, a sign of genuine FX normalization under the post-cepo band framework. The MEP and CCL rates tracked the blue’s direction, with the CCL settling near ARS 1,465.
04 Technical Analysis
Tuesday’s consolidation near 2,780,000 forms a potential bull flag after Monday’s strong rally. The MACD histogram at 25,594 remains positive, while the signal lines at −38,197 and −63,791 continue converging toward a bullish crossover. RSI at 52.02/41.88 has established above the 50 neutral line on the fast reading — a constructive signal. The 200-day SMA at 2,476,464 provides structural support 10.9% below. The 2,834,302 level (50-day EMA) is the key resistance; a close above opens the path toward 2,906,000.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 2,906,000 | Feb high / upper Bollinger |
| Resistance 1 | 2,834,302 | 50-day EMA |
| Tuesday Close | ~2,780,000 | March 24, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,704,885 | Near-term support |
| Support 2 | 2,476,464 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
Wall Street reversed Monday’s rally as Iran’s missile strikes on Israel undercut the ceasefire narrative. Brent held near $99.54 but US Treasury yields rose to 4.39%, reducing Fed rate-cut expectations to zero for 2026. For Argentina, oil below $100 remains asymmetrically positive: it hurts YPF but benefits banks, consumers, and sovereign spreads. Macquarie’s $150 Brent warning if Hormuz stays closed through April remains the tail risk.
07 Looking Ahead
Trump’s five-day ceasefire window expires Saturday — late-week headlines on Iran will determine whether country risk pushes toward 550 or rebounds toward 630. The BCRA’s FX purchase trajectory and upcoming debt payments dominate the domestic calendar. If the Merval holds above 2,700,000 through the week while country risk continues compressing, the path toward retesting 2,834,000 opens. The carry trade unwind warning from Cohen remains the structural domestic risk.
08 Verdict
Bias: BULLISH, maintained. Country risk compressing from 633 toward 580, RSI above 50, MACD histogram positive, and the Merval holding Monday’s gains despite Wall Street’s reversal. A close above 2,834,302 targets 2,906,000. A ceasefire collapse and oil above $112 would downgrade to Neutral. The ceasefire expiry Saturday is the binary event.