MALAWI · CLIMATE
Key Facts
—What happened: Malawi’s government published a preliminary El Niño preparedness plan on 4 September 2026.
—How big it is: The plan needs 488.5 billion kwacha (about US$282 million), with 163.7 billion (US$94 million) mobilised.
—The gap: The shortfall is 324.8 billion kwacha (about US$187 million), two-thirds of the total.
—Who it hits: Up to 2.6 million people, 14% of the population according to the plan, across 23 districts.
—The catch: The mobilised money comes from existing programmes, not new pledges, and the largest potential fund is conditional.
—What comes next: The World Bank’s US$190 million releases only after drought impacts are verified in early 2027.
The Malawi El Niño preparedness plan needs about US$282 million. The government has mobilised about US$94 million from existing programmes, leaving a US$187 million gap.
The plan and its price tag
Malawi drafted a national plan for the 2026/27 El Niño dry spell. Announced on 4 September 2026, it costs 488.5 billion kwacha (about US$282 million).
That sum is meant to cover two pillars: preparedness and resilience. They span fourteen priority areas, including agriculture, food security, nutrition, health, water, energy, and logistics.
The most concrete item is grain. The plan calls for securing 440,000 metric tonnes of maize for national food reserves.
What has been mobilised so far
The government says 163.7 billion kwacha (about US$94 million) has already been mobilised through ongoing programmes. That means existing budget lines and donor projects, not new money pledged for this plan.
The remaining gap is 324.8 billion kwacha (about US$187 million), which is two-thirds of the total. The figures come from the government’s own document, dated 4 September 2026.
The government calls the requirement preliminary, and the gap could widen if needs grow.
Why the gap matters for people
The plan projects that 2.6 million people, about 14% of Malawi’s population, could be affected. Of those, 2.5 million live in rural areas, spread across 23 priority drought-prone districts.
Malawi’s economy relies on rain-fed maize. A poor season causes hunger.
The 2023/24 El Niño led to a disaster declaration in March 2024.
According to the Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño, the 2023/24 event left many households without enough reserves. That makes them more vulnerable to another shock.
The forecast: a strong El Niño is here
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed a developing El Niño on 2 June 2026. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared its arrival on 11 June.
Forecasters expect the peak from December 2026 to February 2027. Malawi’s south faces below-normal rain from October to December 2026, with fewer rainy days from January to March 2027.
The WMO’s August update says the event is near-certain to continue through the September-to-November period. The peak comes later.
The money problem: forex and fiscal limits
Malawi lacks foreign exchange, hindering maize imports. The official rate was 1,734 kwacha per dollar on 4 September 2026; the parallel rate was about 4,400 in July 2026.
The government has ruled out devaluing the kwacha. Finance Minister Joseph Mwanamvekha said in June that there would be ‘no discussion on devaluation’.
The extended credit facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lapsed in May 2025 with about US$35 million disbursed. A June 2026 IMF mission ended without an agreement.
The 2026/27 budget allocates only 590 million kwacha (US$340,000) to disaster risk management. Of that, 114 million (US$66,000) is for interventions.
Where the money could come from
The UK pledged US$3 million on 4 September, about 5.3 billion kwacha. FAO and WFP appealed for US$202 million on 29 June for twelve countries, including Malawi, with no breakdown published.
The World Bank found up to US$190 million available, but conditionally. Funds release only after drought checks in February and March 2027, post-planting.
African Risk Capacity and the African Development Bank paid Malawi US$11.2 million in 2024. They also paid US$14.2 million in recovery cover, totaling about 9% of the US$282 million need.
Voices from the ground
Chief Secretary Justin Saidi chairs the El Niño committee. President Mutharika set it up. ‘We cannot wait for impacts before responding,’ Saidi said.
He added that early action remains Malawi’s best defence. Innocent Pangapanga, director of the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development, said: ‘After the plan, next should be action.’
Economist Christopher Mbukwa urged the private sector to shift from disaster donations to building pre-disaster resilience. These voices underline the urgency, but the funding gap remains the central challenge.
What preparedness money buys
According to an IFPRI policy note, pre-positioning supplies in districts before roads deteriorate costs a fraction of what airlifted relief costs later. The plan includes drought insurance and livestock support, with policies that pay automatically when rainfall falls below a set level.
Early warning systems are the cheapest line, per the note, yet often first cut. World Bank money, if any, arrives post-drought.
The gap between the need and the mobilised funds is the story. It is a race against the rains.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does Malawi need for El Niño preparedness?
The government’s preliminary plan requires 488.5 billion kwacha (about US$282 million). Only 163.7 billion (US$94 million) has been mobilised from existing programmes.
Who is coordinating Malawi’s El Niño response?
The Department of Disaster Management Affairs coordinates, with district councils leading implementation. President Peter Mutharika set up the Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño, chaired by Chief Secretary Justin Saidi.
What does the preparedness plan cover?
It covers fourteen priority areas, including agriculture, food security, nutrition, health, water, energy, and logistics. A key goal is securing 440,000 metric tonnes of maize for national reserves.
When is the El Niño expected to peak?
Forecasters expect the peak between December 2026 and February 2027. Malawi may see below-normal rain in the south from October and dry spells from January.
How many people could be affected?
The plan projects 2.6 million people, about 14% of the population, could be affected. They are spread across 23 priority drought-prone districts.
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