Zambia’s State Firm Puts Ndola Refinery at US$1.2 Billion
ZAMBIA · ENERGY
Key Facts
—What happened: The Industrial Development Corporation said the Ndola refinery will cost US$1.2 billion.
—How big it is: The refinery will make 3 million tonnes a year, about 60,000 barrels per day.
—Who is building it: Zambia Petrochemical Energy Company, a joint venture between the state IDC and China’s Fujian Xiang Xin.
—The catch: The licensed value is US$1.1 billion, and the difference is not explained.
—Who it hits: Zambian fuel buyers, who pay among the highest prices in the region.
—What comes next: Completion is targeted for the end of 2028. No cabinet is in place yet.
Zambia is landlocked and has not refined fuel since 2022. The state firm says its Ndola refinery will cost US$1.2 billion, above the licensed US$1.1 billion.
What the state holding company said
The Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) is the state’s main holding company for commercial assets. Its chief executive, Cornwell Muleya, said on 5 September that the refinery will cost US$1.2 billion.
He spoke to the state broadcaster ZNBC, as Lusaka Times reported. The refinery is already under construction next to the old Indeni plant at Ndola, on the Copperbelt.
Muleya also gave jobs figures that conflict with earlier official numbers. He said 3,000 construction jobs and 800 permanent ones, but earlier official figures were 2,200 construction and 600 direct operational jobs.
The project that is already being built
The developer is Zambia Petrochemical Energy Company (ZPEC), a joint venture between IDC and China’s Fujian Xiang Xin Corporation. The shareholding split is not public.
ZPEC got an investment licence from the Zambia Development Agency on 28 November 2025. It signed an investment protection agreement in mid-May 2026, and the environmental regulator ZEMA approved it in June 2026.
The groundbreaking was on 10 April 2026, officiated by the then energy minister, Makozo Chikote. He held the portfolio until Parliament was dissolved on 15 May 2026 ahead of the election.
Why the cost figure matters
The licensed value of the project is US$1.1 billion. Muleya’s US$1.2 billion is higher, and IDC has not explained the difference.
That gap is about 9 percent. For a project of this size, even a small percentage change is a lot of money.
The cost matters because Zambia is still recovering from a debt default. The government restructured its bonds in 2024, and rating agency S&P raised Zambia to CCC+ in November 2025.
What the refinery will do
The plant will make 3 million tonnes of fuel a year, about 60,000 barrels per day. That is two and a half times the old Indeni refinery’s design capacity of 24,000 barrels per day.
Zambia has no working refinery today. Indeni stopped refining in 2022, after going onto care and maintenance in November 2021.
Indeni now operates as a state-owned fuel marketing company under IDC. It imports and sells petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other products, and runs the largest single-site fuel storage in Zambia.
Where the crude will come from
Zambia does not produce its own crude oil. The refinery will need to import it, and reported sources are the Middle East and Angola.
How the crude will reach Ndola is not clear. The TAZAMA pipeline from Dar es Salaam has carried low-sulphur diesel, not crude, since 16 March 2023.
TAZAMA, owned 66.7 percent by Zambia and 33.3 percent by Tanzania, used to pump crude to Indeni. Whether it will be converted back or a new line built is an open question.
The politics around the project
President Hakainde Hichilema was sworn in for a second term on 1 September 2026, after a disputed election. No cabinet had been named at the time of writing.
That means there is no sitting energy minister. Muleya argues the refinery will give Zambia more control over fuel supply and prices.
But he has not said how the difference between the two figures will be funded.
What fuel prices are doing now
The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) reviews pump prices every month. It cut prices for three months running, and held them unchanged for September 2026.
Petrol costs 25.29 kwacha a litre, about US$1.32, and diesel 26.86 kwacha, about US$1.40. The kwacha traded at about 19.1 per US dollar on 4 September 2026.
The ERB says prices are driven by international oil prices and the exchange rate. A stable kwacha has helped bring prices down.
How this fits the region
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery cut petrol imports by 96% in early 2026. Output fell from 81,000 to 10,000 barrels daily by June.
On 21 August 2026 Aliko Dangote offered Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda a combined 30 percent stake in a planned refinery. The project reportedly costs US$17 billion.
For Zambia, the new refinery is sized for its own demand. It will not export much, but it could reduce the country’s reliance on imported finished fuel.
What to watch next
Watch for a new cabinet and an energy minister. They will have to explain the cost difference and the funding plan.
Watch for how crude will reach Ndola. The pipeline question is central to whether the refinery can run at full capacity.
Watch for updated jobs figures. The conflict between Muleya’s numbers and earlier official ones needs to be resolved.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will the Ndola refinery cost?
The Industrial Development Corporation says US$1.2 billion. The licensed value is US$1.1 billion, and the difference has not been explained.
Who is building the Ndola refinery?
Zambia Petrochemical Energy Company, a joint venture between the state’s IDC and China’s Fujian Xiang Xin Corporation. The shareholding split is not public.
When will the Ndola refinery be finished?
Completion is targeted for the end of 2028. The groundbreaking was in April 2026.
Why does Zambia need a new refinery?
Zambia is landlocked and has not refined its own fuel since 2022. The new plant would make about 60,000 barrels a day, two and a half times the old Indeni capacity.
How will the refinery affect fuel prices?
The government argues it will give more control over supply and price. But the cost of crude and the exchange rate will still matter.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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