Latin American Pulse for Thursday, March 26, 2026
Executive Summary
Latin American Pulse: Maduro's second hearing in Manhattan, Colombia hunts Iván Márquez for senator's murder, Banxico holds rates. Regional market...
Maduro and Cilia Flores Face Second Hearing in Manhattan as Defence Fights Treasury Funding Block — Colombia Hunts Iván Márquez for the Magnicidio of Senator Uribe While C-130 Crash Investigation Centres on Overloading — Banxico Expected to Hold at 7% as Inflation Hits 4.63% — IPC Mexico Surges 3.67% in the Week’s Biggest LatAm Equity Move — Peru’s Keiko Fujimori Debates as 17 Days Remain Before the April 12 Vote
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse is defined by courtrooms, manhunts, and central bank decisions. Nicolás Maduro faces Judge Hellerstein in Manhattan this morning in the hemisphere’s most consequential trial. Colombia is simultaneously hunting the intellectual authors of a political assassination while burying 69 soldiers. And Banxico announces whether Mexico’s inflation spike justifies extending the rate pause. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
At 10:00 AM New York time, Maduro and Cilia Flores appear before Judge Alvin Hellerstein for their second hearing on narcoterrorism charges. The defence is fighting to dismiss the case, arguing that Treasury sanctions blocking access to Venezuelan state funds violate their constitutional right to counsel. The prosecution calls it a delay tactic. Meanwhile in Caracas, Delcy Rodríguez expects the Parlamento to pass the new mining law this week — opening gold, diamonds, and rare earths to foreign investment.
Colombia’s Fiscalía issued capture orders against Iván Márquez and six Segunda Marquetalia commanders for the magnicidio of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, shot in Bogotá last June. A $5 billion peso reward is on Márquez’s head. This breaks alongside the C-130 crash investigation, which now centres on whether the aircraft was overloaded — 126 people on a plane rated for 90-110.
Markets delivered a broad Latin American equity rally on Wednesday. IPC Mexico surged 3.67% — the week’s biggest single-day move anywhere in the region. All five tracked indices closed higher. Precious metals corrected: gold fell 1.19%, silver dropped 2.01%. Bitcoin slipped below $70,100.
Regional Mood
The hemisphere is watching Manhattan. If Hellerstein rejects the dismissal motion — as most legal analysts expect — Maduro’s path to a full narcoterrorism trial is locked in. Rodríguez’s parallel push to rewrite Venezuela’s mining laws for Washington reads as the political price of non-interference.
Colombia’s dual crisis — a manhunt for the authors of a political assassination and the deadliest military aviation disaster in the country’s history — casts a long shadow over the May 31 presidential election. Paloma Valencia won the right-wing consulta on March 8. The campaign resumes under a security cloud that validates the hardline candidates.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | Maduro second hearing today Manhattan; defence dismissal motion; mining law vote imminent; Rodríguez–Washington axis deepening | CRITICAL |
| Colombia | Márquez capture orders; $5B peso reward; C-130 overload investigation; 69 dead; black box sent to US; May 31 election shadow | CRITICAL |
| Mexico | Banxico decision today; inflation 4.63%; IPC +3.67% biggest LatAm move; core above 4% for months | ELEVATED |
| Peru | Fujimori debated last night; Ipsos: 11% vs López Aliaga 10%; quadruple tie 3rd place; 17 days to Apr 12 | ELEVATED |
| Brazil | BCB quarterly report today; Selic cut to 14.75% on Mar 18; economists now see 12.5% year-end; Durigan settling in as FM | STABLE |
| Chile | IPSA reverses losing streak +2.00%; fuel hike protests continue; Kast environmental rollbacks | ELEVATED |
Venezuela: Maduro Faces Manhattan Judge as Rodríguez Rewrites Mining Law
Second hearing at 10:00 AM before Judge Hellerstein; defence fights Treasury funding block; mining law vote expected this week; new procuradora general appointed; Rodríguez consolidating Washington relationship
What Happened
- —The hearing: Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores appear before Judge Alvin Hellerstein at the Southern District of New York at 10:00 AM today. The central issue is a defence motion to dismiss, arguing that Treasury sanctions blocking Venezuelan state funds violate their Sixth Amendment right to counsel. Maduro’s lawyer Barry Pollack filed the motion on February 26. The prosecution calls the argument a delay tactic and says the couple must pay from personal assets.
- —What’s at stake: If Hellerstein rejects the dismissal — as most analysts expect — the case moves to the pre-trial discovery phase, with the prosecution releasing years of DEA evidence. The judge, 92 years old, will also set procedural timelines. Experts estimate a full trial is 12 to 24 months away. Maduro has been in the MDC Brooklyn since his capture on January 3. His son said he is “in good spirits.”
- —Caracas in parallel: Delcy Rodríguez told investors Tuesday that the Parlamento will pass the new mining law “this week.” The legislation, in second debate, would replace the 1999 mining code and open gold, diamonds, and rare earths to foreign investment. The US Treasury issued a licence permitting American companies to trade Venezuelan gold after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visited Caracas on March 4. A new procuradora general, Arianny Seijo Noguera, was appointed to replace Reinaldo Muñoz.
- —The dual track: Washington is simultaneously prosecuting Maduro for narcoterrorism and deepening economic ties with the Rodríguez government that replaced him. The mining law mirrors the hydrocarburos reform passed in January — both designed to attract US capital in exchange for political legitimacy.
Why It Matters
This is the most significant prosecution of a Latin American head of state in US history. The hearing will reveal whether Maduro can mount a credible defence or is forced into a public defender — a humiliation that would signal the complete collapse of his political position.
For the region, the dual-track — prosecution plus economic integration — is establishing a template. Rodríguez’s survival depends on delivering resources to Washington; Washington’s leverage depends on Maduro staying in a Brooklyn cell. Any disruption to either track destabilises the other.
Key Watch
Hellerstein’s ruling on dismissal motion (today). Mining law second debate vote (this week). Trial timeline. Defence funding resolution. Rodríguez’s next moves with US companies on gold.
RISK: CRITICAL
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
-0.03%
173,325.65
-0.03%
66,709.60
+0.88%
10,954.04
+0.52%
3,281,979
+1.81%
2,301.34
+0.13%
56,620.35
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,325.65 | -0.03% | +29.19% | 173,371.35 | — | — | — |
| IPSA | 10,954.04 | +0.52% | — | 10,896.87 | 11,000 | 10,808 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 66,709.60 | +0.88% | +19.47% | 66,125.27 | — | — | — |
| MERVAL | 3,281,979 | +1.81% | +60.69% | 3,223,652 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,301.34 | +0.13% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 56,620.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.31% | -8.83% | 5.09 | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.58% | -11.00% | 5.82 | 5.79 | 5.78 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.39 | -0.10% | -6.76% | 17.41 | 17.42 | 17.39 | — |
| USD/CLP | 934.18 | -0.03% | -2.04% | 934.50 | 934.18 | 934.18 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,213 | -1.69% | -20.33% | 3,269 | 3,213 | 3,213 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.40 | +0.07% | -4.50% | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,478 | -0.27% | +15.97% | 1,482 | 1,478 | 1,478 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.11 | +1.23% | +0.75% | 39.62 | 40.11 | 40.11 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,045 | +1.76% | -19.24% | 5,940 | 6,045 | 6,045 | — |
| USD/BOB | 10.80 | +2.69% | +60.48% | 10.52 | 10.80 | 10.80 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.02 | -0.31% | -3.32% | 58.20 | 58.17 | 58.02 | — |
| USD/CRC | 446.12 | +1.15% | -9.31% | 441.06 | 446.12 | 446.12 | — |
Colombia: Manhunt for Márquez as C-130 Investigation Points to Overloading
Fiscalía orders capture of seven Segunda Marquetalia chiefs for senator’s assassination; $5 billion peso reward; crash probe focuses on 126 passengers in 90-110 capacity aircraft; black box voice recorder sent to US; May 31 election campaign resumes
What Happened
- —Magnicidio confirmed: The Fiscalía General confirmed Tuesday that the Segunda Marquetalia — the FARC dissident group led by Iván Márquez — ordered the assassination of Senator and presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, shot in Bogotá’s Modelia neighbourhood on June 7, 2025. He died August 11. Fiscal General Luz Adriana Camargo called it a “structured criminal operation” with “political-instrumental” motives designed to destabilise Colombian democracy.
- —Seven capture orders: Arrest warrants were issued for Márquez (the FARC’s former peace negotiator who rearmed in 2019), plus alias John 40, Zarco Aldinever, Rusbel, Enrique Marulanda, Gonzalo, and Kendry Téllez Álvarez (“Yako”), identified as the operational link between the commanders and the hit squad. Police offered $5 billion pesos (~$1.3 million) for Márquez and $4 billion pesos each for John 40 and Zarco Aldinever. Nine people have been arrested and four convicted so far.
- —C-130 crash update: The investigation into Monday’s C-130 Hércules crash in Puerto Leguízamo now centres on possible overloading. The aircraft carried 126 people (11 crew, 113 army, 2 police); the C-130H is rated for 90-110 depending on configuration. The analogue voice recorder must be sent abroad for analysis — Colombia has requested US assistance. The data recorder is being analysed domestically. Final toll: 69 dead, 57 injured. Medicina Legal has identified 19 of the dead.
- —Election shadow: Colombia’s May 31 presidential election campaign resumes under the twin shadows of a political assassination attributed to an armed group and the military’s worst aviation disaster. Paloma Valencia won the right-wing consulta on March 8; Iván Cepeda won the left’s. COLCAP rose 1.61% to 2,273.65.
Why It Matters
The Uribe Turbay magnicidio is the first assassination of a sitting senator and presidential candidate in Colombia since the paramilitarism era. That the Segunda Marquetalia — a group that was supposed to have been dissolved by the 2016 peace agreement — ordered a political killing in the capital validates every argument the hard-right has made about the failure of total peace.
The C-130 investigation threatens to become a political weapon. Petro called the aircraft “chatarra” donated during the Duque government. If overloading is confirmed, the military chain of command faces accountability questions at the worst possible moment — an election year with armed groups emboldened enough to assassinate legislators.
Key Watch
Márquez manhunt progress. US analysis of voice recorder. Overload investigation findings. Victim identifications. Valencia vs Cepeda campaign dynamics. Armed group activity in Putumayo.
RISK: CRITICAL
Mexico: Banxico Decides Today as IPC Posts Week’s Biggest LatAm Rally
Market consensus: hold at 7% for second straight meeting; inflation 4.63% first-half March; IPC surged 3.67% Wednesday; core stuck above 4% for months
What Happened
- —Rate decision today: Banco de México announces its monetary policy decision today, the second of 2026. The consensus is for a second consecutive hold at 7%, following 12 consecutive cuts that brought the rate from 11% to 7% between August 2024 and December 2025. Banxico paused in February, citing the need to assess the impact of fiscal changes, arancels on Chinese goods, and persistent core inflation.
- —Inflation spike: Annual inflation reached 4.63% in the first half of March, driven by fruits, vegetables, and air transport. Core inflation remains stubbornly above 4%. Banamex, Banorte, Bx+, and BanCoppel all recommended a pause. The Iran war’s impact on fuel costs adds upside risk that Banxico cannot ignore.
- —IPC explosion: The IPC surged 3.67% on Wednesday to 68,187.60, the biggest single-day equity move in Latin America this week. This follows Tuesday’s 2.18% gain. The rally was driven by easing geopolitical risk perception after Trump’s claim of Iran de-escalation talks — though Tehran denied it.
- —Gulf spill: The Gulf of Mexico oil spill continues to affect 15 municipalities across Veracruz and Tabasco. Authorities rescued 229 migrants from a trailer. Mexican families now lead US immigration detention statistics.
Why It Matters
Banxico is trapped. Inflation at 4.63% makes cutting impossible. But the economy showed weakness in Q4 2025 before recovering, and global uncertainty from the Iran war argues for accommodation. The hold at 7% is a safe decision, but the market is now pricing only two cuts for all of 2026 — far less easing than Hacienda’s projection of 6% by year-end.
The IPC’s two-day surge of nearly 6% combined tells us markets were deeply oversold and responded disproportionately to the faintest hint of Hormuz de-escalation. The underlying reality — persistent inflation, global trade tensions, and an oil spill — has not changed.
Key Watch
Banxico decision and statement (today). Forward guidance language. Second-half March inflation (INEGI). Gulf spill cleanup. Oil price pass-through.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
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Peru Keiko Fujimori debated last night in the third of six scheduled sessions. She faced Jorge Nieto (5th in polls) and Mesías Guevara on security and corruption. The format — 12 candidates in ternas of three — limits depth but maximises exposure. Ipsos poll (March 21-22): Fujimori 11%, López Aliaga 10%, then a four-way tie at 5% between López Chau, Carlos Álvarez, Nieto, and Roberto Sánchez. The second debate round starts March 30 covering employment and education. Cerrón’s habeas corpus is scheduled for March 31 at the Constitutional Tribunal — 12 days before the vote. All 130 Congressional seats also on the ballot April 12. |
Brazil The BCB publishes its quarterly monetary policy report today with new GDP and inflation projections. The Copom cut the Selic by 25bp to 14.75% on March 18 — the first reduction since May 2024 — citing Iran war uncertainty for the smaller-than-expected cut. Economists now forecast the Selic at 12.5% by December. Ibovespa rose 1.60% to 185,424.28. FM Durigan is settling into the role. Inflation at 3.81% annual (February) is below 4% for the first time since May 2024. The October election dynamic: Haddad vs Tarcísio in São Paulo; Selic easing cycle gives Lula a political tailwind but household debt concerns persist. |
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Argentina Markets reopened after Tuesday’s national holiday (50th anniversary of the 1976 coup). MERVAL rose 0.98% to 2,805,316.38. The Milei government’s “memoria completa” narrative — insisting both military and guerrilla victims be commemorated — remained contentious. The $LIBRA crypto scandal and Milei’s European diplomacy tour remain live threads. Argentina faces Paraguay in a World Cup warm-up friendly this week. |
Chile / El Salvador Chile: IPSA reversed its four-session losing streak with a 2.00% rally to 10,409.95. Kast’s fuel price hike and environmental rollback protests continue. BCCh rate decision pending — oil-driven inflation pressure makes a hold likely. El Salvador: Congress expected to approve the 49th extension of Bukele’s state of exception today — marking four years and over 91,000 detentions. The regime’s security model is being explicitly invoked by Peruvian candidates in this week’s debates. Human rights groups have documented over 6,400 complaints and at least 488 deaths in custody. |
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Ecuador / Bolivia / Cuba Ecuador: Curfew ends March 30 in four provinces. EU drug-policy cooperation agreement signed March 20. Constitutional Court cleared the South Korea trade deal (SECA) for National Assembly debate. WTO 14th Ministerial Conference opens in Yaoundé today. Bolivia: Seven gubernatorial runoffs confirmed for April 19. Petrobras’s authorisation to import Argentine Vaca Muerta gas threatens Bolivia’s remaining export revenue. Paraguay ambassador in Montevideo for Mercosur’s 35th anniversary of the Treaty of Asunción. Cuba: Blockade continues into month four. COP15 migratory species conference running in Brazil’s Campo Grande through March 29. |
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Markets at a Glance
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPC (Mexico) | 68,187.60 | +3.67% | Week’s biggest LatAm rally; two-day gain ~6% |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,409.95 | +2.00% | Reversed four-session losing streak |
| COLCAP | 2,273.65 | +1.61% | Resilient despite crash probe + manhunt |
| Ibovespa | 185,424.28 | +1.60% | Selic easing cycle priced; BCB report today |
| MERVAL | 2,805,316.38 | +0.98% | Post-holiday reopen; steady |
| Gold | US$4,453.31 | −1.19% | Profit-taking after bounce from $4,125 crash |
| Silver | US$69.789 | −2.01% | Underperforming gold on correction |
| Bitcoin | US$70,064 | −1.73% | Slipping below $70K support |
| USD/BRL | ~5.23 | flat | Selic easing offset by risk-on sentiment |
Equity indices: Wednesday March 25, 2026 closes, from TradingView Tier 0 charts (timestamped 06:54–06:55 UTC, March 26). Gold, silver, Bitcoin from TradingView daily (06:54 UTC). Maduro hearing from La Nación, El Tiempo, CNN en Español, Telemundo, Semana. Colombia Márquez capture from Fiscalía/Noticias Caracol/El País Cali. C-130 crash update from Infobae Colombia. Mexico inflation from INEGI via Excélsior. Banxico from Bloomberg Línea. Peru debate from La República, RPP, El Comercio, Infobae Peru. Brazil Selic from Agência Brasil. Venezuela mining law from Infobae Venezuela, Efecto Cocuyo. Rio Times Bolivia coverage.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Thu Mar 26 | Maduro second hearing — Manhattan federal court (10 AM ET); Banxico rate decision; BCB quarterly monetary policy report; El Salvador 49th exception regime vote; G7 foreign ministers meet (Iran/Ukraine) | VEN / MEX / BRA / SLV |
| ~Fri Mar 28 | Brazil tax reform framework vote (Chamber of Deputies); Venezuela mining law second debate vote | Brazil / Venezuela |
| Sun Mar 30 | Ecuador curfew scheduled to end (4 provinces); Peru debate round two begins | Ecuador / Peru |
| Mon Mar 31 | Cerrón habeas corpus hearing — Constitutional Tribunal | Peru |
| Sat Apr 12 | Peru presidential & legislative first round | Peru |
| Sat Apr 19 | Bolivia — seven gubernatorial runoffs | Bolivia |