Mexico’s next president will navigate a nation rich in potential but rife with challenges, ranging from economic issues to crime and infrastructure needs.
Slow Growth
Mexico’s economy grew just over 2% annually, below other developing nations.
Post-pandemic, it initially exceeded expectations but later slowed due to reduced construction and US exports.
Monex forecasts a slight economic slowdown in 2024, compounded by high inflation, interest rates, and the largest budget deficit since the 1980s.
The ‘Superpeso’
The Mexican peso’s strength under AMLO outperformed other emerging market currencies. However, this hurts exporters and devalues remittances, vital for many families.
Trade Tensions
In 2023, Mexico became the US’s largest trading partner, surpassing China, with over US$475 billion in goods traded.
The USMCA agreement, due for review in 2026, will spotlight China’s use of Mexico for exports to the US.
Nearshoring Potential
Nearshoring could boost Mexico’s GDP by three percentage points over the next five years.
However, infrastructure and policy obstacles, such as water and energy access, must be addressed to realize this potential.
Pemex’s Financial Burden
Pemex, the state oil company, is a financial strain. The next president must reduce its debt and enhance profitability without harming public finances.
Plans include focusing on clean energy and private sector partnerships.
Violence and Crime
Violent crime, driven by cartels, remains a critical issue. AMLO’s term saw over 170,000 homicides.
This violence hampers business growth and requires robust action.
Infrastructure Needs
Sheinbaum and Gálvez emphasize the need for energy infrastructure investment. Mexico must improve connectivity through ports, roads, railways, and internet.
Sheinbaum promises up to 100 new industrial parks if elected.
Environmental Challenges
Record temperatures and droughts impact the power grid and cause water shortages. The worst-case scenario could leave 22 million Mexico City residents without water.
Both candidates are committed to tackling climate change.
China’s Growing Influence
US concerns about cheap Mexican imports from China threaten US industry competitiveness.
Temporary tariffs on over 500 products, including steel and plastics, address these issues. Post-pandemic investments have surged, benefiting Mexico.
The US Presidency Impact
The tight Biden-Trump race matters for Mexico. Both candidates promise a tough stance on Mexico’s China relations.
Trump’s proposed tariffs on cars made in China in Mexico and Biden’s focus on trade compliance highlight the stakes. Mexico will need US cooperation on trade and immigration.
These challenges define the complex landscape Mexico’s next leader will navigate, balancing economic growth, trade relations, and domestic stability.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error